: Sobyanin's second coming

The news is almost number one in Russia: Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin can go to early elections in September 2013. Several people spoke about such plans for Gazeta.ru at once, and this immediately became a media sensation. In less than a day, Sobyanin himself voiced this issue at a meeting with members of the Public Chamber of Moscow. Regional public chambers are still an institution for the Soviets, especially since until recently it was not in the capital, it has been sitting only from the end of April. However, the mayor decided to “consult” exactly there, as if the chamber itself was created specifically for the early election of the mayor.

“I wanted to consult with you. Recently, the issue of holding the elections of the mayor of Moscow is already actively discussing this year. This question is asked by journalists at each meeting, this is discussed actively in the deputy environment, in the expert community, ”the mayor said. Sobyanin supported the “social activists”: members of the chamber Konstantin Remchukov, Maxim Shevchenko and others spoke for early elections. And the speaker of the Moscow City Duma Vladimir Platonov emphasized that Moscow laws are quite allowed to do this. In other words: the metropolitan authorities arranged a planned political performance and soon and are really ready to hold elections. As a result, "consulting", Sobyanin predictably announced that he resigned right tomorrow.

The general director of the VTIIME VTSIA VELIARY FEDOROV also managed to declare that in the event of early elections, Sobyanin claims to win in the first round, and only a federal politician, but not the conditional Alexei Navalny could compete with him. He echoes Federov and a source in the presidential administration, who told Interfax that Sergei Semenovich had every chance of being elected capital's mayor, but the decision remains with the President of Russia. ” Until the end of the week, the former mayor Yuri Luzhkov promised to decide, the rest of the applicants, one must think, will also be pulled up soon.

There are several explanations of this political equalibrics. The first and most obvious (Luzhkov gave him to Izvestia) - Sobyanin's ratings demonstrate a trend towards a decrease and are not at all too high. So, having held early and imminent elections, the city hall is trying to protect herself from all competition. Just many potential applicants (conditionally Alexei Navalny or Mikhail Prokhorov) simply will not have time to really expand a serious campaign. Summer, the vacation season, no one has prepared in advance - the current government has serious advantages to conduct a campaign on a low turnout and with a passive electorate and calmly squeeze competitors. According to the Levada Center survey of June 2012, 36 percent were ready to vote for Sobyanin. 31 percent then stated that they were a candidate from the United opposition, and 33 percent difficult to answer. The rating is almost equal to anti -rating - this is not hopeless, but the fears should inspire.

The second significant benefit is a decrease in the risk of protesting Muscovites against election abuse. It is impossible to falsify, because it is risky, but it is necessary to win. Therefore, it is necessary to minimize the need for falsifications.

The third and rather important circumstance: the uncertainty that in recent years has been observed in the economy. None of the regional leaders have accurate confidence that in a year or two they will be able to confidently choose. What will be in Moscow, Pskov or Tula in 2015 - no one knows. It would be possible to hold elections a year earlier, but in 2014 to Sobyanin, this would be fraught with unnecessary risks. Since scheduled elections to the Moscow City Duma should take place in 2014.

There is now one day of voting, and the mayor inevitably had to drag him “United Russia” unnecessary to him, in addition to his campaign (he heads the metropolitan party organization). It would turn out that Sergei Sobyanin, in addition to his own negative train (from tiles on the sidewalks to the demolition of tents and growth of traffic jams), would receive the image of a united Russia in the load, which in Moscow, to put it mildly, is not entirely advantageous. Therefore, if you already transfer, then immediately for 2013.

Fourth: from a hardware point of view, holding the plan according to the plan in 2015 for the city hall is also undesirable. Because the elections to the Moscow City Duma can give rather unsuccessful results for the capital's authorities. And then a year before the governor’s elections to Sobyanin, his hardware competitors will be faded in every possible way. “Sergey Semenovich does not keep the situation under control, the elections cannot organize the elections,” the mayor in the Kremlin will be taught friends. And then it will be very difficult to wait for support from the Kremlin to the governor. So it’s not far from real resignation.

Finally, there is the logic of the federal government. It is impossible to lose Moscow - this is the first and extremely important step to the loss of power. Therefore, Sobyanin is quite allowed that in another case the Kremlin could have blocked. Getting to now is to protect the process of transit of power in Moscow. If Alexey Navalny Sobyanin is not quite a competitor (and not the fact that he could at least somehow take part in the 2015 elections), then some Mikhail Prokhorov with his resource and ambitions could have competed for Moscow.

In general, it turns out that holding elections now is at least rational for the capital's city hall. There will be three months before the elections and few can seriously appear on them. Even the signatures of municipal deputies will not be the easiest task, what is there before holding a substantial and effective campaign. Of course, if Sobyanin is simply not a “troll” of competitors with a possible nomination. Although he is a specific, experienced person and is unlikely to say this, not going to do it soon.