Chegenization of Dagestan

Last Saturday, in Makhachkala, on suspicion of organizing the murder of investigator Arsen Gadzhibekov, the mayor of the city Said Amirov was arrested. He was taken out of the republic by military helicopter, the case will be considered by the Basmanny Court of Moscow. Amirov is considered one of the main heavyweights of Dagestan politics, for 15 years he controlled not only the capital, but also other regions of the republic. About why he was taken to Moscow and that this detention may mean for the entire North Caucasus, Slon asked the head of the representative office of the international crisis group in Russia Ekaterina Sokiryanskaya.

- The detention of the mayor of Makhachkala Said Amirov resembles the film “Godfather”: the acting head of the republic Ramazan Abdulatipov, who, of course, was aware of what was happening, watches football at the stadium in the Grozny, and at that time federal law enforcement agencies are on the most powerful politicians of Dagestan to Moscow. Why did everything happen that way?

- Amirov is an too large -scale figure, with powerful ties in Moscow, in the republic, in power structures and, apparently, in criminal circles, therefore, otherwise than in conditions of complete secrecy, without informing local power structures, it would be impossible to successfully conduct this operation.

-So , nevertheless, Abdulatipov had the strength to cope with the detention on their own (they simply feared that the information could leak in the republic) or did Abdulatipov could not arrest Amirov without federals?

- Power structures to Abdulatipov are not subordinate. But even if they tried to hold the detention with the help of some republican security forces, the information would have leaked instantly. Then there would have been sabotage at different levels, mobilization of support, witnesses would begin to refuse testimony ... By the way, it is possible that they will still refuse. Amirov is really a very imperious and influential person. And it was impossible to keep it in custody not only in Dagestan, but even in the North Caucasus Federal District. So an absolutely correct decision is to carry out the operation unexpectedly, quickly, without noise and external forces.

- And who exactly could Amirov have time to mobilize?

- Amirov is an empire, a huge clan that held almost a million city. The faithful people controlled almost all the key positions. For a large number of Amir citizens, this is a guarantor of security and well -being. Many personally owe him to him, and without him they can fall into the field of view of law enforcement officers. Yesterday, in the hall of the Makhachkala administration, a meeting of the city’s asset was held, where Amirov’s supporters curled up that the case against him was fabricated in order to prevent the mayor’s nomination for the president of the republic. There is a rather difficult struggle, and it is good that during this period the suspect will be outside Dagestan.

- If you rank according to the influence of Dagestan politicians, what place did Amirov occupy?

- I think the first. Ramazan Abdulatipov, of course, will be Putin’s political support, but he is not quite a Dagestan politician. Abdulatipov was not rooted in Dagestan reality, he did not live for almost twenty years and did not work in the republic. And during this time, Dagestan has changed a lot. So far, the influence of the acting on social, political processes in the republic, on the internal balance of power, its ability to navigate in the underwater trends of Dagestan political life is very limited. He is such a superstructure or something, brought from the federal center. This is his strength and a certain limitation. And the Amirov in this sense is his antipode, a person is very deeply rooted, built -in and largely controlling this system by a person. And its influence applies not only to Makhachkala, but also to the city of Kaspiysk, as well as a number of regions of the republic.

- Abdulatipov - the superstructure of the Kremlin? Didn't he make a decision to remove Amirov from the republic?

- I think that the decision was made in the Kremlin.

-And who still performed the operation?

-According to the press service of the President of Dagestan, employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Investigative Committee for the North Caucasus Federal District.

- When Abdulatipov became the president, he promised that he would clean the power in Dagestan from criminal elements and corruption. The usual public position of those who begin to work in a new place. Now we can say that Abdulatipov has this super -task initiated by the Kremlin, or is it too early?

- They heard a lot of beautiful speeches in Dagestan. Everyone who came to power in the republic talked about the fight against corruption. It is clear that this is the scourge of Russia, the North Caucasus and especially Dagestan, where the top has long fused with crime, and state institutions are privatized and decomposed. When Ramazan Abdulatipov was appointed, he also began to talk about the fight against corruption, it sounded like another correct rhetoric, which was behind. True, he fired most of the ministers from the previous composition of the government, changed a number of heads of administrations. At the same time, he returned some officials, whom Magomedov ( Magomedsalam Magomedov, the previous president of Dagestan, in 2010, was dismissed in 2010. - Slon) . Actually, that's all. Then it was a feeling that in personnel policy Abdulatipov had no one to rely on. In general, the first steps of the acting were perceived as cosmetic changes that did not change the situation as a whole. But Amirov’s detention is a very serious step, and I was very surprised that the country's leadership went to this before the Olympics. The clan system in Dagestan is strong, deeply rooted, and in a certain sense it stabilizes the political system. To start it dismantle it in less than a year before the games is a risky step.

-On Saturday, the main politician was detained in the most corrupt North Caucasus Republic, today the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Karachay-Cherkessia was resigned today . How is this related?

- These are the links of one chain. I think that Vladimir Putin understood, after Moscow protests, including, if he cannot significantly improve the quality of government in the country as a whole, then everything will explode, and in the Caucasus it will explode for a long time. He realized that it was necessary to clean power, at least getting rid of the most odious figures. I hope that the Caucasus will not have single detentions - but a systematic work to cleanse the authorities from crime and corruption. The Caucasus is exhausted from lawlessness and arbitrariness of officials and security forces.

- They wrote that for several months they prepared the detention of Amirov. Abdulatipov was appointed at the end of January. He was appointed with an sight - to remove Amirov?

-I think that Abdulatipov was appointed to normalize the situation in Dagestan and, apparently, the Kremlin has developed a plan for how to do it. Once Putin had a plan to “normalize” Chechnya, by the way, in some way the situation there was similar. Then Chechnya was controlled by several professional power groups, each of which operated in a certain territory. Kadyrov’s group was one of them, the most numerous, but there were still the Yamadaev brothers, was Magomed Kakiev, Movladi Baysarov. The bet was made on the Kadyrov group. Other groups were gradually eliminated (most of their leaders - physically), and Kadyrov was able to establish total control over the republic. In Dagestan, there are also several gravity centers with great political weight, economic resources and influence. Of course, in Chechnya then, in the postwar years, the groups were armed, paramilitary, in Dagestan these are respectable politicians in expensive costumes, “Strongmen”, clans leaders, who, however, also control the territories entrusted to them almost like feudal possessions. So I hope that Ramazan Abdulatipov came to cleanse Dagestan from the clan system, and the arrest of Said Amirov is the first step along this path. I also hope that he does not seek to repeat the model of Chechnya and will not try to create the same, as there, the regime of hard sole power. This will not pass in Dagestan.

If the arrest of Amirov will not follow further steps, the inhabitants of Dagestan will decide that this is not the fight against corruption, but the reduction of accounts, and one of the mayor’s enemies “ordered” it to the feds. At the same time, the scenarios of the republic’s management system will not change, the rules of the game will remain, there will be a redistribution of the resource that previously controlled Amirov, between other clans, and Dagestan will continue to degrade, youth - to go to the forests, not believing criminal and closed with a privatized state.

- Abdulatipov was the curator of the course at the head of the Investigative Committee Alexander Bastrykin, they play volleyball together, this is the proximity, that behind him is the security forces, is discussed in the republic? How important are these personal ties?

- In our country, in general, personal connections are important. Abdulatipov has good relations with the security forces, with the leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, he himself said that he had mutual understanding with Kolokoltsev. Putin's support helps him find a common language with the heads of federal departments.

The lack of amirov in the republic will facilitate the life of Abdulatipov. His detention will play for the rating of the acting. Now, if they held direct elections, Abdulatipov would have serious chances to win them.

- It depends on how to hold the elections. Amirov could control the plots and influence the result?

- Elections in the North Caucasus are always the control and influence of local authorities on the result. You understand that there are no 90% in any of the republics and in orderly rows for United Russia North Caucasus never voted. Nevertheless, if we imagine that tomorrow there would be more or less free elections, I think Abdulatipov would have a serious chance. In the Caucasus, the factor of real cases is important. After the arrest of Amirov, the Rating Abdulatipov grew up. In social networks, the most common reaction: “This is science fiction! It is impossible to believe! " These days, I talked with colleagues, friends from Dagestan, they say that people have an incredible emotional upsurge, a glimpse of hope and faith that it would be better. This faith costs a lot.

- What will happen in Dagestan now? How will the people of Amirov be recouped? There will be riots in the republic?

- There will be no serious riots. The operation was carried out so unexpectedly that Amirov, apparently, did not have time to prepare. Of course, the city administration and the “asset” will make statements - this is understandable that they were supported by Amirov for so many years, now they must support it. If the law enforcement agencies go further to unravel the corruption chains, if they begin to verify the leaders of other clans, in this case, temporary destabilization is possible. But if you do not go further, destabilization will be long -term, and the process of degradation of the state in the republic will be increasingly irreversible.