The elections are finished, forget!

Sergey Sobyanin lost real competitors

The election campaign in Moscow ended, not having time to really begin. Mikhail Prokhorov refused to participate in the early elections of the mayor - the only real competitor to Sergei Sobyanin. Next in line Alexei Navalny, on the way of which the Leninsky district court of the city of Kirov will almost certainly stand. And the current mayor will have a time until September 8th in the company of little -known party members and not the most popular oppositionists. Who and how turned the elections of the most authoritative regional leader of Russia into a fiction - the New Times sorted out

Mikhail Prokhorov did not find legal opportunities to circumvent new prohibitions for candidates

“On the site of the Kremlin, I would, on the contrary, persuaded Prokhorov to go to the polls. Yes, I would have accepted amendments so as not to extend the ban on foreign assets to candidates participating in the current campaign. Because today the appointed President Sobyanin has more legitimacy than it will be as a result of such pseudo -elections, ”the former State Duma deputy Gennady Gudkov commented on The New Times The situation in Moscow at the end of the first elected week. However, it can also be considered the latter, since the entire further election campaign, apparently, will only become a preparation for the formal statement of the residents of Moscow, the mayor chosen by the Kremlin.

The CEC warns

The refusal of Mikhail Prokhorov to participate in the struggle for the mayor’s post was considered a sensation. Yes, that early elections are announced precisely in order to “knock out” Prokhorov from this campaign - the most dangerous competitor of the current mayor - experts said from June 4, when mayor Sobyanin

He reported his intention to resign to return to Tverskaya, 13 already elected mayor*. Yes, the businessman’s associates did not hide that he could have serious problems with the renewal of foreign assets, without which his registration as a candidate is impossible without the transfer to Russia. But after the Moscow City Council on June 7 appointed elections for September 8, quite optimistic signals were received from Prokhorov’s entourage: we have time to resolve the issue with assets, we will nominate the candidate by the end of the week.

“I know for sure that the program for the candidate Prokhorov was already written, slogans were composed, negotiations were underway on support with municipal deputies, and actively worked with lawyers to re-register assets,” says Vladimir Ryzhkov, co-chairman of the RPR-Parnas. “Even in the evening, on Wednesday, everything went according to plan,” confirms the source of The New Times surrounded by a businessman. - For example, on Saturday, June 15, Prokhorov was going to the forum of municipal deputies - to discuss the issue of their support (for registration, the candidate needs to collect signatures of 110 deputies of 110 municipalities in Moscow. - The New Times). However, on Thursday morning, Prokhorov gathered a press conference in Interfax and stated that neither he nor anyone else from his party “Civil Platform” would participate in the mayor’s elections.

“Everything was decided on the night of Thursday,” journalist Stanislav Kucher, participating in the development of the ideology of the Prokhorov party, told The New Times. - Lawyers reported that it is possible to translate assets, but it will not work out to do it absolutely cleanly, a bypass scheme is needed. Mikhail decided not to be substituted, because he is convinced that he will not be registered anyway. ”

As Mikhail Prokhorov himself explained by The New Times, his capital are in 15 different jurisdictions (from London and New York to Africa) and different legal norms come into conflict: Russian requirements for registering assets do not coincide with foreign ones, multi-stage permissions from antimonopoly services, etc. The businessman himself, by his words, is, according to him The country's largest taxpayer among individuals (as a presidential candidate, he declared an annual income of more than 115 billion rubles), insisted on the absolute purity of all deals. “We discussed this with lawyers - they said that it was necessary to make a“ template ”**. But this means that we are substituted, ”Prokhorov continues. “And the explanation of the Central Election Commission showed that they will definitely check us and check hard.”

Many associates of the businessman are also talking about this “clarification” as a distinct signal from above Prokhorov. We are talking about the speech of the Deputy Chairman of the CEC Leonid Ivlev at a press conference on Tuesday June 11. Answering the question of how the candidates should act in order to draw a ban on foreign assets - the law entered into force on May 19 this year - Ivlev made it clear that there is not enough foreign accounts to simply close - it is also necessary to place these funds in banks in the Russian Federation. In addition, the deputy chairman of the CEC emphasized that the “institution of trust management in foreign jurisdictions” and the “use of financial intermediaries” will be considered a violation of the law. The fact that these words were addressed personally by Prokhorov is no doubt among observers. “Undoubtedly, the explanations of the CEC are directed directly against Prokhorov; We are talking about building a trap, the political strategist Gleb Pavlovsky agrees. - Prokhorov did not have the physical opportunity to create a situation in which he could be a participant in these elections. There was only one option - to transfer all assets to the native state. And as an honest Russian beggar, he could be admitted to the elections. ”

Change of fate

Sergei Sobyanin counts on the support of ordinary Muscovites ...
... and Alexey Navalny - to the aid of the caring

As Gennady Gudkov is sure, amendments prohibiting candidates to own foreign assets, and the announcement of early elections in Moscow should be considered as a single special operation. “Nothing foreshadowed the early elections, although the issue was discussed, I know about such negotiations,” he says. -But when the authorities realized that the mayor’s elections in 2014 or 2015 were a dangerous story, they made a decision. At first there was an amendment to deprive the right to runes to everyone who has at least some shed abroad, and two weeks later they announced early elections. ” As Gudkov’s retired colonel notes, the operation was prepared in an atmosphere of the strictest secrecy: “I knew a very narrow circle of persons about it, until June it flowed anywhere - neither to the deputies or the city hall ... They were convinced that Prokhorov did not have time to transfer assets and announced the elections.”

However, even if you agree that such a special operation was, it is not clear what Prokhorov himself guilty before the Kremlin? After all, by and large he always did what they wanted from him. They asked to lead a cold corpse called the “right business” - he headed, not frightened by the stigma of the Kremlin Project (The New Times, followed the short period of the leadership of Mikhail Prokhorov in the party). They proposed to nominate the presidential candidate (the proposal, according to The New Times, came from Putin personally)-the same part of the “angry townspeople” from the squares to polling stations (The New Times published an interview with presidential candidate Mikhail Prokhorov). And he didn’t even object when almost half of his votes “redistributed” in favor of Putin (officially Prokhorov received about 8%, according to independent experts - at least 13%).

In exchange for such a conspiracy, Prokhorov wanted not so much - “just” to become the mayor of Moscow. He was purposefully preparing for this post for this post for a whole year. He built a well-thought-out three-stage election strategy: in 2013-preparation of a party foundation, in 2014-a faction in the Moscow City Duma, in 2015-victory in the mayor’s elections. Yuri Luzhkova was gathering in his team (for example, the metropolitan branch of the Civil Platform was headed by the former head of the Entrepreneurship Development Department of the City Hall Mikhail Vyshegodtsev). Slowly processed municipal deputies, who at the right time had to give the right number of signatures. He prepared the election headquarters: for the “capture of Moscow” it was planned to be a multimillion advertising budget and mobilize the stars of show business.

And suddenly - such an unexpected turn.

What happened?

Nothing special, says the source of The New Times, who worked with Prokhorov on one of the political projects. The businessman once again fulfilled the order, the interlocutor is sure: “Prokhorov is absolutely in the Kremlin’s pocket. Someone-and I am 100 % sure that this is not even Putin, but Vyacheslav Volodin (the first deputy head of the presidential administration.-The New Times)-decided that Prochorov’s participation in the mayor’s elections was unprofitable. ” “We know that Mikhail Dmitrievich is generally very flexible and supplied to the Kremlin recommendations,” agrees political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky. “He could ignore all this, but did not ignore.” Gleb Pavlovsky, who participated as an adviser, participated in the presidential campaign of Prokhorov. “A year ago, Putin was Putin. But today, when he ascended to the unattainable height, his servants became the center of decision -making, ”the political strategist explains. - And the servants do not want to bear responsibility, this is a bunch of functionaries, each of whom is afraid to be dismissed. For them, Prokhorov is a too large figure, they do not know what to do with it on the field, so we must not miss him there. There is no place in their bench for this elephant. ”

Along with technological experts, there are philosophical explanations. “When you begin to engage in politics, especially in Putin’s Russia, you must be ready for risks-to lose money, property, to be under the press of law enforcement officers,” says Boris Nemtsov, co-chairman of the RPR-Parnas. - Prokhorov is not ready for this, for him a politician is hipphening, entertainment. They simply explained to him that his participation in these elections is impossible. ” “Prokhorov is trying to be a politician in the system when there are two options: either you cooperate with the authorities and enter the Popular Front, or you are dissident, rally in the squares and sit down for 15 days for the resistance of the police,” adds Oleg Sysuev, in the late 90s-the Deputy Prime Minister of the Government and the first deputy head of the Kremlin administration. “Prokhorov does not want to be an official politician, but it cannot also be dissident - due to different circumstances.”

Circus and clowns

Sergey Mitrokhin (left) in the elections may interfere with the image of the spoiler ...
... and Ivan Melnikov (in the photo) - the advisability of the leader of the Communist Party Gennady Zyuganov

But even those who justify or at least understand Prokhorov’s refusal from the elections, condemn him because his party did not nominate another candidate - for example, the sister of a businessman, the chief editor of the “new literary review” Irina Prokhorova.

“Prokhorov made a mistake that he had not put forward his sister. Of course, she could not win, but she could adequately perform and show a good result - 15–20 percent, ”says Evgeny Gontmamer, a member of the civil initiative committee. - She enjoys fame, many were ready to support it, including as volunteers. Then Prokhorov’s personal refusal would be leveled. ” “Irina Prokhorova, like her brother, could act as a single opposition candidate, who, according to my estimates, could gain up to 42% of the vote,” Stanislav Belkovsky raises the bar. “This would be a very important debt for elections to the Moscow City Duma and a demonstration that the legitimacy of Sobyanin as a chosen mayor is very limited.”

Irina Prokhorova herself in an interview with The New Times said that no one suggested running for her: “And if the party suggested, I would have thought very much. Still, the mayor’s position is special, here is my brother is a person who could really control the city. ” At the same time, she considers her brother’s decision to be courageous and correct: “The authorities at the last moment arranged the joke elections, and her brother did not want to give legitimacy to this circus Shapito, did not play along with the authorities and become a puppet.”

As for Shapito, it is noticed very true. Moreover, the full-time “clowns” are already being pulled on the elections-from the invariable “Spider” of Troitsky to the liberal democrats who had already managed to change one little-known candidate for another, even less famous for all the last elections in the metropolitan region of Sergey.

The last truly recognizable opposition figure among the candidates, Alexei Navalny remains, nominated from the RPR-Parnas. But the probability of his participation in the elections is low. Firstly, it is still unclear whether it will be able to overcome the municipal filter: the number of independent deputies is limited, and other candidates who have either more significant financial capabilities or administrative resource are already actively working with them. And secondly, the sword of a possible sentence in the “Kirovles” case hangs over Navalny. On June 13, the Kirov prosecutors demanded that the defendant change the preventive measure from the subscription about the wizard for detention as a punishment for failure to appear for the next meeting (on the same day it was called to the Investigative Committee in Moscow). The judge Blinov refused to arrest, but ordered the forced drive of Navalny to the next meeting on June 17. And judging by the assertiveness of the prosecution, the end of the process is no longer far off. And the conviction will automatically close the Naval Path to the polls, even if by that time he will already turn into a registered candidate by some miracle.

In this case, only the leader of Yabloko, Sergei Mitrokhin, will remain from the noticeable oppositionists in the elections, whom Prokhorov supporters and some representatives of the non -systemic opposition are openly called the spoiler, and the first deputy chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, Ivan Melnikov. The latter, according to political scientists, has good chances to at least go beyond the statistical error. “This is a strong candidate and a successful decision: a professor of Moscow State University, a representative of the capital's intelligentsia and a person who, in political views, is at the junction of the Communist Party and Yabloko, that is, not some frantic Stalinist,” explains Stanislav Belkovsky. - Among the active part of the population, Melnikov could use certain support. But, unfortunately, we know that the Communist Party of the Communist Party is no less than Prokhorov is subject to Kremlin instructions. And whether Melnikov can demonstrate his virtues is a question. ”

Thus, according to the results of the first week of the official election campaign, it can already be stated that the elections, in fact, have turned into a purely technical procedure for rejection for a new term-as it happened in the 2004 presidential election, in which the second persons of a number of parties and the ex-security officer Zhirinovsky, who joined them, assisted. “This is now certain: it is definitely not: it is even less than the presidential,” Gleb Pavlovsky concludes. “In essence, this is a paradox: Sobyanin went to what even Putin did not go to: he twisted the cards with the deadlines and with the election procedure.”

Photos: RIA Novosti, Reuters, ITAR-TASS, Ilya Yashin