Ghost Reformer Hassan Rouhani

On June 20, the supervisory board of Iran recognized the presidential election, which was won by Hassan Rouhani, supposedly a sorcerer of moderate glances

The new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is an experienced apparatchik of the Shiite clergy and the confidant of the Supreme Leader of Ayatollah Khamenei

Those who in the last days are violently rejoiced at Iran - they say, out of 8 official candidates for the presidential post, the voter preferred the most moderate - still do not deceive themselves.

Hassan Rouhani, a trustee of the Supreme Leader of Ayatollah Khamenei, the head of the Iranian Center for Strategic Studies of the Council for Expertability, is an experienced apparatchik of the Shiite clergy. He, unlike Said Jalili, whose victory was put by many, including the author of these lines (forecasts are ungrateful, it has long been noticed), knows how to put his ideas into an attractive form. He is rather an adherent of the ideas of Machiavelli. But he is not a singer of freedom.

Judging by his first post -breasted statements, Rowhani accurately evaluates his strength and understands that he has little spaces for maneuver today. For example, former allies turned away on the field of international politics from Iran: Egyptian President Muhammad Mursi and the Hamas movement demanded that Tehran immediately remove the fighters of the Hezbollah Group from Syrian territory. However, Hezbollah is fighting in Syria exclusively by order of Ali Khamenei, and its groups are controlled by Al-Cods brigades, the command of which directly reports to Rachbar (leader). What can Rowhani do here? Nothing.

It is not easy for the elected president to negotiate with the countries of the Six according to the Iranian nuclear program. Indeed, unlike the time of the President Hatam, the West will no longer be content with “smiles” and “changes in tone”, but will continue to demand specific actions in exchange for mitigating sanctions. To get out and let dust in the eyes will not work.

It will not be easy to stop the economic disaster: oil revenues that have already fallen in half will decline further. The banking system is on the verge of collapse. In order to save her, Rowhani would have to be prohibited by the Iranian Central Bank to issue huge loans to financial and industrial groups close to the Corps of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution. In the best case, they simply will not let him do this. At the worst - the intransigence of the president will lead to a coup.

Koncho, the election of Rowhani is an expression of the deep desire of the Iranians to normalize the political, economic, social life, as well as relations with other countries. But celebrating his victory, they forgot that the “president-reformer” is a conflict by no means new not only for Tehran, but also for Khamena personally.

In 1997, he had already allowed Mohammad Hatam, the ideologist of the left movement of the “reformers”, to go to the forefront. Then the leadership of the Islamic regime was accused of the murder of Iranian oppositionists on September 17, 1992 in the Berlin restaurant "Mikonos", as well as in the explosion in the El Hubar complex in Saudi Arabia, which claimed dozens of lives. Then, as now, Iran’s position in world society was catastrophic, and economic policy led to 50 percent inflation and rapidly increasing social inequality. But the reforms of the huts remained in the words, and in 2005 the Ahmadinejad came to replace him in 2005.

Hamenya has a good memory. Rowhani, as the people who know him say, also.

Photo: Reuters