With his frequent trips to the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, former federal minister Yuri Trutnev gave local politicians a reason to include him in the pool of potential rivals for Natalya Komarova in the 2015 elections. But capital experts are sure: the assistant to the President of the Russian Federation is more interested in Moscow today, where he is lobbying for a powerful and capacious project

Today, the data of social measurements that the FSO carried out the day before in Ugra have become known and which indicate the level of trust of the population of the district in the authorities operating in the region. According to the federal report, the position of Governor Natalya Komarova has increased significantly. The trust rating of Ugra residents towards her is now listed at almost 58%. Observers believe that information about the political successes of the owner of the district was specially released by the district White House (usually the results of FSO polls are classified). This means that the governor’s team has already begun preparing for the 2015 elections. And politicians are already in full swing discussing potential candidates. The feds’ data should be considered as a message from Komarova’s team to potential opponents. Now the clear favorite in the future race is the governor herself. But there are those who, even before her arrival in the district, did not hide their political ambitions, and some candidates will clearly appeal to the old elite. About who is worth paying attention to and why, in the material from Znak.com.

Today, the Department of Public Relations of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug sent out a press release, which, with reference to the report of the Federal Security Service, provides data on the attitude of the population to the activities of Natalya Komarova over the past year. In particular, the report said that the level of trust of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug residents in the governor in 2012 increased by 12% compared to last year - 57.8% of residents highly assessed the activities of the head of the region.

Experts interviewed by Znak.com consider these data close to real. Thus, according to one of the Ugra sociologists, Ilya Verkhovsky, the governor has a good position. True, he points out that this is the current state of affairs, and it is difficult to say what will happen in two years. As a reminder, elections for the district governor are scheduled for 2015. Although, as previously reported, there are opinions that the head of the region may go to early elections in 2014.

Political scientist Pavel Manchenko also believes that Natalya Komarova is the clear favorite in the current conditions. But, in his opinion, she understands the risks of her early failures and the emergence of a strong competitor, so she will refuse early elections.

“I think that she will not take risks, will not follow the example of Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin and will not resign early in order to be re-elected by popular vote. This is due to the political and economic transformations it launched in the region. For example, new programs that are approved this year. There are global plans, but a more or less tangible result is planned no earlier than 2015 – right around the time of the elections,” explains the political scientist. In his opinion, the governor is already laying down a number of trump cards specifically for the 2015 program.

“Natalya Komarova will go to the elections with at least three key projects. First of all, this is the topic of the oil industry. A key industry for the region, on which the well-being of the entire Ugra depends. Changes in federal legislation, which Komarov personally lobbies for oil workers today, are a decisive factor for specific “generals” who will ultimately support Komarov. Amendments to the tax legislation regarding the conditions for the extraction of hard-to-recover oil, which have already been adopted, symbolize not only her concern for the industry, but also the fact that she is supported by the federal center. Although the real results of these innovations will be felt by oil workers only in a few years - just in time for the gubernatorial elections. If in 2014 companies begin to develop the Bazhenov formation and oil will be produced there, then in 2015 this will be a real trump card. The second trump card is infrastructure development projects, including the construction of two bridge crossings. One of the projects will affect the population of hard-to-reach areas of the district, the second will affect the population of the largest city of Ugra - Surgut and its satellites. Considering that during all the years of work as governor, Komarova did not have a single major infrastructure project in her arsenal, these bridges will close the gap by 2015 - by this time it will be known exactly how and who will build, and so on. The third trump card is one of the most sensational topics of a social nature. It is by 2015 that the authorities plan to solve the problem of shortage of places in kindergartens,” says Manchenko.

According to interlocutors of Znak.com, Komarova’s early mistakes (for example, the issue with additional pension provision, which from the format of guaranteed additional payments turned into the “Ugra Pension Standard” project, which has not been working for several years, and the situation with beams) will be able to be patched up in a few years. “Here, of course, you can play around with everything, present it as the team’s mistakes, not the governor’s. But, in fact, for now these are risks that should now be covered up with some successes,” says a political scientist from United Russia.

There is an opinion that the key to Komarova’s success in the elections will be clearing the field of possible opponents. “For example, she took Pavel Zavalny, a deputy of the District Duma and part-time head of a Gazprom subsidiary, to Moscow. His name is still on the list of potential candidates for the post of district governor. But still, the industrialist’s transition to the State Duma significantly weakened his position in Ugra. When he was a deputy of the KhMAO Duma and worked at a local enterprise, he was much more popular among the population. Yes, his position has become larger, but his presence in the district and his influence have dropped significantly. Zavalny today and two years ago are different people. It was not by chance that he was sent to the State Duma. At one time, the same thing was done in Yamal with Komarova herself, she used a move familiar to her and made the right decision,” one of the experts shares his opinion.

Another competitor of Komarova is considered to be senator from Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug Viktor Pichugov. It is said that his political ambitions are fueled by local elites who, despite the emerging habit of working with Komarova, still remain loyal to the elites of the “old regime”. Our interlocutors emphasize that the latest attacks against Pichugov (for example, the scandalous Forbes publication about an undeclared plane) are connected precisely with an attempt by certain forces to discredit him before the residents of the district on the eve of the elections. “Everyone knows that he is a very rich man. So, this wealth was used against him. In general, one gets the feeling that he himself doesn’t really need the governorship, but his friends and acquaintances are egging him on, so he’s thinking about it,” the expert shares his opinion, adding that Zavalny and Pichugov will be able to consolidate the old elites, but with some kind of explicit federal support until they have...

...In contrast to the former Minister of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation Yuri Trutnev, who increasingly began to visit Ugra and thereby became interested in the local elites. “All his interests, including those related to business, are concentrated in Perm. But perhaps President Putin is taking a closer look at him. I think that Trutnev may appear in a situation when the question arises: “If not Komarov, then who?” And it is suitable both from the point of view of loyalty, devotion to the current president, and from the point of view of taking into account the specifics of the region. It is equidistant from both Gazprom and Rosneft, and this is convenient,” the expert believes. Another interlocutor points out that according to all sociological surveys, the population of Ugra does not know who Trutnev is, and his victory can only be ensured through administrative resources.

KhMAO Duma deputy Evgeniy Markov is also being named as a candidate, who, if he enters the election scene, will be associated with the oligarch Oleg Chemezov, who is lobbying him. “He is young, and the rest of the applicants are over 50 years old. He is successful, he is local, he is known. All this can work in conditions when the remaining candidates will be imposed on the people by the Kremlin. I do not rule out that in Ugra, where elections are increasingly becoming unpredictable, protest sentiments may arise, and the favorite in such conditions will be from the opposition forces,” one of the candidates shares his opinion.

The head of the communications holding Minchenko Consulting, political scientist Evgeniy Minchenko, commenting on the data of the FSO report regarding the positions of Komarova and her team, in a conversation with Znak.com said: “It is obvious that Komarova has increased her rating since her appointment. Due to what? On the one hand, she carried out a purge among the local elite, whose representatives had really overstayed their welcome. On the other hand, in the dialogue with the population of the district, she came out positive, receiving the image of a kind of caring housewife who does not shy away from going to the outback to meet people. In relations with large corporations, it also found a common language; a consensus was reached with the Tyumen region, as evidenced by the extension of the cooperation agreement between the three regions. The issue of uniting the Tyumen Matryoshka regions has been resolved. Parity has also been achieved here. This is good, since this topic will once again not be an eyesore for the feds. Thus, Komarova currently does not have any serious competitors. There is no point in holding early gubernatorial elections. The protege of large fuel and energy complex corporations could compete with her, but she suits them.”

Regarding the possible participation in the elections of Yuri Trutnev, Evgeny Minchenko explained that his candidacy was discussed even during the period when the question of changing the government of the Russian Federation arose: “Then the possibility of castling was considered - Komarova would go to a ministerial post, and Trutnev would go to the district. But even then I was skeptical about these rumors. So talk about Trutnev is a response to outdated rumors. He has a serious lobbying project. He is more important to him. Trutnev continues to maintain strong influence in the Ministry of Natural Resources. He has a project about “best available technologies.” So he’s more interested in Moscow.”

The elites of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug received a message from Komarova