Rosstat recorded economic decline

In the Chelyabinsk region, the pace of economic development in major sectors has slowed down. According to Chelyabinskstat, in the first half of the year the industrial production index grew by only 0.6%, which is 5.6 times lower than last year. In addition, construction volumes decreased by almost 25%. Experts do not exclude that by the end of the year the situation will worsen due to stagnation in the metallurgy market.

According to the Chelyabinskstat report, the index of industrial production in the Chelyabinsk region in the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2012 increased by 0.6%. At the same time, last year the growth rate was higher - 3.4% compared to 2011. The price index in industry in June 2013 compared to December 2012 decreased by 1.8% (in June 2012 compared to December 2011 - increased by 0.3%), including for mining products - by 5.6%, manufacturing - by 2.1%, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water - increased by 3.2%. The greatest lag is observed in the field of housing construction - in the first half of the year, only 76.6% of the level of last year was completed. While in the first half of 2012 this figure, on the contrary, increased by 48.8% compared to the 2011 level. A decrease is also observed in the freight turnover market - by 5.6% compared to the level of the first half of last year (in 2012, an increase of 3.6% compared to 2011), including railway transport - by 7.2%. The financial condition of organizations in the region also suffered: in January–May 2013, the positive financial result of organizations before tax amounted to 12.1 billion rubles, which is 57% lower compared to January–May 2012. The growth rate of wages also decreased - in nominal terms, growth in 2013 was 8.1%, in the first half of 2012 compared to 2011 by 15.3%. Its real size, calculated taking into account the consumer price index, increased in 2013 by 1.3%, in the first half of 2012 - 10.5%.

Business Ombudsman of the Chelyabinsk Region Alexander Goncharov believes that optimistic development of the region’s economy should not be expected until the end of the year. “The regional government cannot have a global influence on the economic situation in the region, because it is necessary to strengthen federal control over monopolists - energy, railway and gas companies,” he explained. In his opinion, in order to stabilize the situation, it is necessary to reconsider the investment components of monopolies to slow down the growth of tariffs on their products. The stagnation of the industrial complex has also become the reason for the reduction in housing commissioning in the region, says Yuri Karlikanov, Chairman of the Construction Policy Committee of the Legislative Assembly of the Chelyabinsk Region. “Construction is an indicator of the economic development of the region. As soon as the economy begins to decline, construction begins to decline,” he believes. Mr. Karlikanov called the involvement of the state in this issue one of the important impetuses for the development of the housing construction market. “The vector of demand has shifted to private consumption, and today the customer for housing construction should be the state. It is necessary to start building social housing, meeting the needs of those in need. Let’s return to the issue of building rental housing,” says Yuri Karlikanov.

According to the head of the investment management and analytical support department of IFC Solid, Mikhail Korolyuk, the growth rate of the Chelyabinsk region turned out to be lower than the average Russian indicators of the industrial production index (amounted to 1–1.5%). “This is due to the high base of orders, when in the first half of 2012 there was a peak in government spending on infrastructure projects (Sochi Olympics, APEC summit). Now, against the backdrop of declining government spending, growth rates are decreasing, but private business demand is expected to increase. In the second half of the year, the high base effect will disappear from the calculations, and the Chelyabinsk region is expected to increase by 1.5%,” the analyst noted. He emphasized that in the Chelyabinsk region industry is a key sector: due to the reduction in production, the indicators of other areas are deteriorating.

Tatiana Drogaeva, Maria Polous

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