09 August 2013, 00:00

The ruble has lost four years

August lives up to his reputation. The euro exchange rate broke through the level of 44 rubles at the auction, and for the third time in recent years the Central Bank has shifted the boundaries of the currency corridor Yulia Orlova The euro exchange rate strengthened against the ruble to the level of September 2009 / J. saget / afp

For the third time in the last five weeks, the Central Bank is reviewing the currency corridor for the bi-currency basket ($0.55 and 0.45 euros), the regulator said. Since yesterday, the Central Bank has shifted the boundaries of the corridor upward by 5 kopecks. up to 31.9-38.9 rub. Since June, the regulator has carried out a similar operation three times, and before that - only in July 2012. The Central Bank takes such a step when the amount of interventions in excess of the target volume reaches $450 million. In July, the Central Bank sold $4.2 billion and 374 million euros - the monthly maximum from October 2011

The upcoming Central Bank meeting on rates also puts pressure on the ruble. Low demand for rubles during the last Central Bank auction for an annual loan (July 29, 307 billion rubles out of the proposed 500 billion) may push the bank’s board of directors to ease monetary policy, according to VTB Capital analysts , expecting a reduction in key rates for 0.25 percentage points. “If rates are lowered, the ruble will become more accessible and even cheaper,” expects a foreign exchange trader at a large foreign bank. analysts BCS also expect a reduction in Central Bank rates and a continued weakening of the ruble.

Raiffeisenbank analysts call the Central Bank's actions expected: after the ruble moved to the upper subcorridor, the Central Bank's interventions increased from $200 million, although they did not exceed $325 million per day. Now Raiffeisenbank analysts predict an increase in interventions to $400 million per day.

Yesterday, the euro broke through the level of 44 rubles for the first time since September 2009, according to data from the Moscow Exchange. Trading opened with the ruble falling by 8 kopecks. up to 43.96 rub. per euro compared to the closing price on Wednesday, and by 13.30 Moscow time the euro exchange rate exceeded 44 rubles. As a result, at the close of main trading on Thursday, the euro was worth 44.07 rubles, the dollar - 32.9 rubles. The Central Bank set the dollar exchange rate as of August 9 at 32.94 rubles, the euro at 43.97 rubles. (increase by 10 kopecks). The bi-currency basket yesterday cost 37.91 rubles, almost as expensive as in September 2009 (37.93 rubles). At the peak of asset sales in June 2012, the basket cost 37.2 rubles, in September 2012, on fears of Greece leaving the euro zone - 37.6 rubles, notes senior portfolio manager of GHP group Fedor Bizikov. The euro also rose against the dollar to $1.34, the highest since mid-June.

The Central Bank is forced to support the ruble due to the sale of assets in the world. Investors have been getting rid of risky assets, including the ruble, since May, when US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke about the possibility of winding down the quantitative easing program. “Such exchange rate values have not been seen since 2009. The main role in the weakening against the dollar, perhaps, is played by market participants’ fears about the imminent curtailment of QE. The decline in oil prices, as well as signs of a weaker balance of payments, add fuel to the fire,” Raiffeisenbank said in a report. “The market began to expect higher interest rates and reacted by selling assets,” agrees Bizikov. He notes the decline in exchange rates of other currencies of developing countries: the Brazilian real has fallen by 15% since the beginning of May, the Indian rupee by 13%, and the Turkish lira, like the ruble, by 7.5%. Bizikov also points to a seasonal factor, explaining the weakening of the ruble: an increase in capital outflow due to the holiday season, as well as the conversion of dividends traditionally received in accounts in the summer into foreign currency.