Developments: Vnesheconombank has come up with a new mechanism to support small and medium-sized businesses →

“ There is no recession. And it won’t be, told Kommersant ” Minister of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukaev , assessing the state of affairs in the Russian economy. “Stagnation is probably the appropriate term.” Net exports, although no longer driving the economy, can keep Russia out of recession, and “ the structural and social matrix is capable of keeping growth rates at around 3%,” he added.

Appointed as head of the Ministry of Economic Development on June 24, Ulyukaev promises that his ministry’s priorities in the coming months will include tariff policy, which currently does not take into account the business cycle. He considers moving away from the “ inflation plus” formula correct “ over a long investment horizon,” and in conditions of increasing and decreasing business activity it should be different: at the stage of recession it should decrease, during the stage of growth it should increase. This can be in the form of a “ tariff credit—even a paid tariff credit,” or maybe just a tariff corridor.

Another priority of the ministry is a financial maneuver in favor of small businesses. Ulyukaev speaks of the need to create a federal guarantee fund and strengthen regional ones. Increase the volume of the loan portfolio by approximately 400-500 billion rubles. per year is possible through a comfortable system of refinancing loans, which will go to small and medium-sized businesses at a rate of no more than 10% per annum. “ Another approximately 400-500 billion rubles. This volume can be increased if the interest rate is subsidized by placing funds from the National Welfare Fund through VEB ; it could amount to approximately 100 billion rubles. per year,” says Ulyukaev. According to his estimates, these funds are “ quite affordable” and “ can fit into the budget strategy.” Ulyukaev plans to include measures to support small and medium-sized businesses in the new version of Strategy 2020.

Speaking about the possibility of using NWF funds for investment in projects, Ulyukaev noted that we could be talking not about 450 billion rubles, but about 1.3-1.4 trillion rubles. This would be possible with the introduction of a reasonable formula that reduces the requirements for the possible use of NWF funds for the purpose of balancing the pension system. In such projects, the share of the fund’s funds should not exceed 30%. A guarantee of repayment and provision of minimum state income is also necessary, and financing could be carried out primarily on the basis of debt instruments.

Russia is on the verge of recession →

Ulyukaev: “There is no recession. And it won't"