5 problems with Hyperloop: what will hinder Elon Musk’s project

Elon Musk's new project , "a hybrid of Concorde, railgun and air hockey," on paper seems like the transport of the future. Promising to reduce the journey between San Francisco and Los Angeles to half an hour and 20 dollars, Hyperloop, moreover, according to the author’s calculations, will cost about 10 times less than the high-speed railway being built in California. Moreover, you can start work now – all the technologies necessary for this exist.

Within a day of the presentation, Musk’s project had already been dismantled piece by piece, and loud voices of skeptics began to be heard behind the enthusiastic chorus, which we also joined. They doubt not so much whether the project is technologically real ( it is real experts are sure ), but whether we will be able to see it implemented in our lifetime (and Musk himself hopes that the first tests of Hyperloop will take place in 2017). We have collected the most common and significant doubts.

Poor details

The basic principles of Hyperloop are described in sufficient detail in the presentation , but sometimes there are unpleasant gaps in the details. According to plans, capsules should leave the station every two minutes (and even every 30 seconds during rush hour), but will this be enough time to fill a mini-car? Given the need for transition chambers, the spacing needs to be reworked – especially in the case of vehicle transport. As a result, the entire dynamics and economics of the process changes. such questions have already accumulated A lot of : some reasonably question the air cooling system, others question the behavior of the capsule on the way. In order to resolve all controversial issues, a prototype is needed, and according to Musk himself, it is unlikely to be ready earlier than in 3-4 years. A typical development for such projects is possible, when a trifle that is insignificant at the initial stage grows over a few years into an insurmountable obstacle.

Overly optimistic budget

The budget also raises doubts: the precisely calculated costs for the production of the first line (from $6 billion to $7.5 billion) look good, but in reality they are unlikely to turn out to be real . Such a large project will not happen without unexpected expenses. According to a Danish study that looked at 250 major infrastructure projects over 90 years, budget overruns of an average of 45% have been the norm since the 1920s - something that happens in about 90% of such cases. The first adjustment, presumably, will happen after the creation of the prototype, and it will by no means be the last.

Infrastructure problems

In addition, when talking about the budget, Musk concentrates too much on the cost of the project's components and does not take into account the associated losses . The image he presented, where the Hyperloop runs exactly in the center of I-5, is as unfortunate as it is symbolic. The construction of supports in this case will lead to restrictions, if not closure, of traffic on the highway, which means inconvenience, traffic jams, costs and additional approvals from the authorities. And politics can have a negative impact on any project – you don’t have to look far for examples.

Bureaucratic obstacles

Forty years before Hyperloop, in 1972, physicist R. Salter presented a project with the rather strange name VHST - Very Highspeed Transit System (“very high-speed transport system”). Conceived to connect the east and west coasts, it was remarkably similar to Musk's project: small capsules moving in tunnels at absolutely insane speeds, making it possible to get from Los Angeles to New York in 21 minutes. The pipes themselves were planned to be underground, and a vacuum was maintained inside them, but this is not important. The important thing is that even then, forty years ago, all the complexity of the project was concentrated at the construction stage - and at the same time it still turned out to be much cheaper than other options. But despite this, VHST remained on paper. Salter blamed politics for this: the project required too many approvals and permits. Now Musk is presenting a similar project with additional restrictions. Business Insider believes that Hyperloop will also be ruined by big politics - such large-scale projects that radically change the structure of several markets at once affect too many business interests.

Musk is not ready to see the project through to completion

Almost all skeptics are sure that the main problem is hidden deeper. It does not concern the technical side of the project, although Musk himself admits that as the distance increases, supersonic aircraft gain an advantage. It does not critically relate to investments in implementation: even taking into account unplanned expenses, Hyperloop is unlikely to catch up with the cost of the California Railroad project. The point is different: in order for a project of this level to reach implementation, it needs a charismatic leader. Someone who will overcome all difficulties, politics and ill-wishers. But Elon Musk is too busy for this: he has already stated that he himself does not plan to take on Hyperloop immediately, managing two companies (SpaceX and Tesla) takes too much time, and a giant infrastructure construction requires complete immersion. Musk later explained to reporters that he would personally develop a prototype of the project, but did not promise that this would be a priority on his list of tasks. Will there be someone who can take upon himself the implementation of the idea conceived in Musk’s head, to become his second self, is a question that can decide the fate of Hyperloop.