Crisis in Kiev

The customs war showed that Russia is an unreliable trade and political partner

Of course, Russian enterprises will eventually find alternative suppliers, and Ukrainian companies - other sales markets. But for a Russian economy balancing on the verge of a recession, this can be the last straw that will plunge the country's economy into a full -scale crisis

The third week of August, Russia and Ukraine spent at war. Customs. Starting from 00:00 on August 14, all the goods of Ukrainian exporters entering the territory of Russia, without exception, began to be subjected to total verification, including unloading, overload, inspection and loading back into transport. Ukrainian export to Russia was almost completely paralyzed. Ukrainian companies, and at the same time their Russian counterparties began to incur multimillion -dollar losses. And all this without explanation of the reasons, which, however, it was not difficult to guess from the very beginning of the conflict.

Exactly a week later, after mutual consultations at the level of deputy prime ministers and telephone negotiations of the presidents of Putin and Yanukovych, Russian customs officers returned to the full-time inspection of Ukrainian goods. And the adviser to the President of Russia Sergey Glazyev explained the reason, to put it mildly, unfriendly actions in relation to a neighboring country included in the five largest foreign trade partners of Russia: “The Russian Customs Service carried out preventive measures related to the preparation of changes in the customs administration regime in the event that Ukraine signed an agreement on the Association with the EU.”

Simply put, the weekly stop of Ukrainian imports to Russia is a visual demonstration of what hell will be turned by Russian customs officers delivering goods to the territory of our country after Ukraine becomes an associated member of the European Union and will join the free trade zone operating in the EU. From persuasion to join the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan and abandon a similar union with the EU Kremlin moved to a rude blackmail, accompanied by a visual demonstration.

The question is how much this way to achieve the goals is in principle able to be effective and what consequences the renewal of the “customs war” threatens, which risks being unlimited.

There will be no doubt that Ukraine will sign all the papers that will open the path to the EU as an associated member and make the country as a member of the European free trade zone. The August “Demonstration” will only contribute to this, because once again it will prove the unreliability of Russia as a trading partner and political motivation for decisions that can affect the economic situation in both countries. However, the fact that even the most acceptable Yanukovych for any circumstances will not abandon the “European path” of Ukraine, and without any demonstrations there were no doubts, since the absolute majority of citizens of Ukraine, including Loyal Russia and Yanukovych of the inhabitants of the eastern regions, requires rapprochement.

The maximum that Kyiv was ready to go to, for many months, “overwhelmed” by Moscow, who sought to join Ukraine to the Customs Union-Putin’s chief political project in the space of the former CIS-participation in the TS on the rights of an observer or associated member, or on some other special conditions that would not refuse the agreements reached from the EU. But if Moscow raises the question with an edge, offers to choose “or - or”, and even threatens to “punish” an intractable partner, the choice is obvious.

The fact that at the end of the year, after Ukraine becomes an associated member of the EU, “sanctions” from Russia will follow, there is also no doubt. A very painful blow will be inflicted on the Ukrainian economy. But Russia, if the trade war is stretched for months, will suffer multi -billion dollar losses. It is naive to think that Ukrainian exports to Russia are limited to cheap agricultural products, which can be easily replaced by deliveries from Belarus, Moldova, the Baltic states, or even that completely returned to the number of trading partners of Georgia.

The five main articles of Russian import from Ukraine include: railway trains and locomotives; steel rental and blanks from it; jet and turboprop engines and gas turbines; electrical equipment; Steel pipes and large metal structures.

Even a superficial look at the list of these products makes you ask a number of questions. For example, what will happen to the grandiose plans of Moscow for the development of Siberia and the Far East? What will be an overspending in the Railways for the reconstruction of BAM and Trans -Siberian Railway calculated by hundreds of billions of billion rubles? Or in no less large -scale pipeline projects "Gazprom"? There is nothing to say about the revival of the Russian aircraft industry, you have to wait with this.

Of course, Russian enterprises will eventually find alternative suppliers, and Ukrainian companies - other sales markets. But the damage will in any case be calculated by billions of dollars. And for a Russian economy balancing on the verge of a recession, this can be the last straw that will plunge the country's economy into a full -scale crisis. Especially if the Kremlin’s efforts are successful, and the Ukrainian economy will be in the crisis. In this case, the flight of foreign investors from the Russian market will take a panic character. And all this is just to amuse pride and “punish” a neighbor who preferred to join an alliance with more adequate partners.