Melnikov second - instead of Navalny

Photo: ITAR-TASS / Mikhail Metzel

The candidate from “ Fair Russia ” Nikolai Levichv today said that he was allowing the opportunity to withdraw his candidacy from the elections. According to Levichv, he is ready to sacrifice his ambitions so that Moscow receives two rounds of voting. Levichv, who recently took part in the procedure for sawing the door of supporters of Navalny Bulgarly, invites Alexei to act together. Although, perhaps, the proposal is addressed to Melnikov. You do not really understand from the first, stuffy statement. “I theoretically argue: if Levichv removes the candidacy in favor of Melnikov, there will be a second round that Melnikov enters. If Melnikov rents a candidate in favor of Levichv , there will be a second round that Levichvs enters. If Levichv removes the candidacy in favor of Navalny , Navalny almost certainly goes into the second round, ” said Levich, and suggested on Saturday to discuss this entertaining combinatorial personally. So far, neither Navalny nor Melnikov are going to withdraw from the elections in favor of Levichv. Representatives of the two favorites of the race - Sobyanin and Navalny - even stated that the withdrawal of Levich in favor of any candidate would not in any way affect the elections. Their skepticism is clear: the latest VTsIOM data indicate that only about 1%are ready to vote for Levichv. The irony around the Socialist -Revolutionary statement about the second round is abundant and seems appropriate. But why is he doing this? The first expected explanation is to avoid the last shameful place. It was important for Levich, they told Slon sources in the party, get more than the party leader Sergei Mironov, and strengthen their positions of the chairman. The task was just this - to gain above 3.25% of Mironov last. Now it is clear that he is likely to not cope with this task. According to the head of the regional programs of the Fund for the Development of Information Policy, Alexander Kynev, there is a common problem of the political status of the party and its leaders, and public curtsy is more important than getting a percentage that will be criticized. “ If Levichv removes himself in favor of Melnikov, it will be a strong federal information reason, and he can partially overshadow the situation with the grinder, which was perceived by the target audience - educated Muscovites - very critical. Such a curtsy will improve the position of the party as a whole, especially considering that the elections are not only in Moscow, but also in the country, and will facilitate exchanges in other regions where the Communists can take off their candidates and facilitate the victory of the Socialist Revolutionaries in the districts , ”says Kynev. The second party to the withdrawal of the decision is that Levichev is an absolutely non -self -state political player, dependent on the presidential administration and who entered into an agreement with the Moscow Mayor, who initially asked him to exhibit his candidacy. So that Sobyanin would not win someone there, but vice-spikers, Levich and Melnikov, second persons in the party. It is impossible for the first - they were already defeated by Vladimir Putin in the presidential election. The loss of the upcoming elections on the chessboard of one Duma deputy chairman is agreed and takes place within the framework of the game adjusted two weeks before the game. Why then is the presidential administration to remove Levichv, actively manifesting itself in the framework of the legitimation of the election process, creating information reasons, election scandals and working against Navalny? Elections in Moscow are a political history of federal significance, as a result of which Alexei Navalny will take second place from minute to minute. For the authorities, the best option-if Ivan Melnikov had received it after all, and that would mean that there is no strong and supported vote of an unsystematic opposition, walking on the heels. The script in which Melnikov still takes the second place, apparently, is already preparing. That is why recently braids from the Prochrevsky political scientists and political technologists have become more frequent that it is not the fact that Navalny will be the second, it is possible that the most organized supporters of the Communist Party due to the greater appearance will outplay today's data from all sociological services and so on. A logical question: how is Levichv with his same percentage, which is part of a statistical error, can help Melnikov ahead of Navalny? Only if it would be necessary to explain why Melnikov suddenly ahead of Navalny, in the motivation of supporters of which so far there is little to doubt. Consolidation of left -wing forces, for example. And to take the missing interest for victory from Navalny. Who will believe that the authorities are falsifying in favor of Melnikov or mobilizing the left electorate in the person of pensioners to come and vote for him? The argument in favor of this version lies in the fact that there are already three Slon interlocutors, namely a member of the Mosgorisbirkom, Andrei Buzin, the coordinator of the project “Map of Violations ” Anastasia Ilyicheva and the press secretary of the Yabloko party Igor Yakovlev said that the capital's social protection authorities call pensioners in the age of age or are registered due vote at home. “ Voting at home is a thin thing that is very difficult to track. There is a chance that there will be falsifications, stuffing, or maybe they are so probing the soil who will go to vote . ” According to Bunin, there was even one message from a proven, according to him, a source that a person will be removed from social security if he himself reaches the urn. Other alarming signals in Moscow have not yet been reported. Why does work go with this particular part of the population? “ This is an increase in the appearance of a certain part of the electorate. Their resources are limited, they do not see Navalny cubes, they see only what the TV shows them , ” says Buzin. Indeed, this part of the pensioners was either transferred by Sobyanin by inheritance from Luzhkov, or voted for the Communist Party, that is, again for Melnikov. According to Buzin, a rough and approximate assessment of such a part of the Moscow electorate is about 300 thousand people. And all those who can vote in Moscow are about seven million, with a turnout of at least 50%, the government carries out about 10% of the electorate. “ In a large part of the current Federal Political Elite, there is a huge unwillingness to see Navalny in second place, which will mean the inevitability of changes. And they do everything to bring down a wave of mobilization of protest and hopes around Navalny with all sorts of plots. Pseudosociologists come out with pseudoanalysts and say that the naval dosper, that Melnikov can win with Navalny, draw a lot of analogies. Other representatives of the type of “real protest movement” come out and they say that everyone needs to act and generally boycott everything. And we see all this information cancan, the purpose of which is the desire to have a weak and unable opposition, where there are no strong figures. Therefore, they are ready to go to anything - even help Melnikov grow up. And it seems that many are already ready to sacrifice the public legitimacy of elections, they think about something else , ” says Kynev.