Translated material
Syrian knot
The US military operation against Syria can begin this week - voting in the US Senate is previously scheduled for September 11. The New Times watched the confrontation of the parties
Barack Obama kept a distance from the first seconds of the G20 summit
The armored Cadillac President of the United States solemnly drove into the huge courtyard of the Konstantinovsky palace. Not only that was not a protocol Russian car, like other leaders of the G20 summit, but a car brought with him, and he rode deliberately slowly, forcing Vladimir Putin to stand alone. Having risen to the yellow balustrade, the car stopped, but for a long 20 seconds no one came out of it. Vladimir Putin continued to wait. Finally, the guard slowly left the front door, slowly opened the back door, from which Barack Obama stepped out without a shadow of a smile, holding out his hand in advance: the presidents smiled only then for the photograph. Angel Merkel, the Prime Minister of Germany, a little later, as they say, joked: Putin and Obama as an old married couple-"constantly swear, but cannot divorce."
Despite the fact that the summit in St. Petersburg was dedicated to the economy, the situation in Syria and a possible military operation against the regime of Bashar al -Assad was the main issue. Since it was impossible to discuss this problem during the main session, the main event of the summit can be considered a farewell dinner in Peterhof. It seems that the Italian Prime Minister Enriko Letta enjoyed the most of all - he was very pleased that the guests were served white Italian wine "Gavi". Everyone else has a lot of questions to each other.
Supporters of the military operation in Syria, the leaders of the USA, France and Great Britain at dinner tried to convince neighbors on the table that even if the action was carried out by the UN Security Council, the West would not cease to look for a political decision of the conflict, so that, they say, it's okay. They accused India, Brazil and other "passive" countries that they "continue to act as if the Syrian problem does not concern them." Because of the same Syria, Moscow almost quarreled with London. Just a few hours before the meeting of Vladimir Putin and David Cameron, in response to the latter’s statements about the need for operations against Damascus, the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov at a briefing allegedly called the UK “a little island, to which no one is listening, except for one oligarch, who bought a Chelsea football club.
Peskov, however, disavowed his statement right away, but Cameron managed to be offended: "Britain is an island that invented most of those things that were worth invented at all ..."
On the carpet to the Senate
If in Strelna Barack Obama tried to enlist the support of the world community, then the first “battle” of the Syrian campaign 2013 occurred on the Capitol Hill on September 3. On the one hand, 18 members of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee participated in it, on the other hand, Secretary of State John Kerry, Minister of Defense Chuck Highle and Chairman of the United Committee of Chiefs of Staff (OCHC) General Martin Dampsis. The exciting duel lasted three and a half hours live the main American television channels.
In fact, the Congress’s permission was not asked by George Bush before the war in Iraq in 2003, nor Barack Obama before surgery in Libya in 2011: according to the US Constitution, the president is personally free to declare war, he is the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, not obligated to consult with anyone. However, this time the American leadership decided to recall Obama’s election promises, he directly said in 2008 that the president could make a single -handed decision only in the event of a direct threat to national security, in all the others it is necessary for the Council with the American people, that is, with Congress.
Arguments of "performers"
Opening the debate in the Senate, John Kerry repeated that the representatives of the administration have been talking to the second week: Washington had no doubt that on August 21, a chemical weapon was used under Damascus, the use of which is prohibited by the Convention on the prohibition of chemical weapons, which entered into force in 1997, and the responsibility for the death of at least 426 children lies entirely with Bashara's regime Assada; The whole world is looking at America now, including, on the one hand, enemies in the person of Iran and North Korea, and on the other, allies in the region from Turkey to Saudi Arabia. Leaving the Assad regime with impunity means to give a card blanche to use chemical weapons to other dictatorial and even authoritarian regimes. At the same time, the US Army does not have the question of a land invasion or any direct participation in the Civil War in Syria, we are only talking about spot strikes on military bases, laboratories, warehouses with components for the manufacture of chemical weapons that will make Damascus that he is not free to do everything that he would like to, with the civilian population. Even if Syria did not sign the Convention on the prohibition of chemical weapons, the civilized world is obliged to react. “American soldiers will not fight in Syrian territory under any conditions”, “The president was crystal of the Castle: we have no intention of taking responsibility for participating in the Syrian Civil War,” - he repeated as Mantra John Kerry, pronouncing again and again, which is impossible to conduct parallels between the operation in Syria and the war in Iraq.
"We have already heard it"
Senators, however, carried these parallels anyway. Remembering the erroneous data of the special services that declared the presence of a mass of weapons of mass defeat (OMP), the Senator from the Democratic Party Barbara Boxer was in the representatives of different special services of doubts or discussions about the submitted certificates of the application of the OMP in Syria. No, no doubt, the Secretary of State assured. Senator-Democrat Tom Udall recalled the war in Iraq-he does not believe that all the diplomatic and economic possibilities of influence on Damascus were exhausted: “I see this attack as just another step to a full-scale war, we have already heard all this about Iraq.”
On video broadcasting, at times it was evident how the Secretary of State Kerry is nervous in search of additional arguments. Former US presidential candidate Senator John McCain, who lost almost the whole meeting of poker on his iPhone, said that point bombing was not enough and the United States should completely neutralize the military infrastructure of Bashar al -Assad. However, the republican senator from Kentukka Rand Paul (the same thing that in March tried to disrupt the statement of the new CIA head John Brennan almost 13 hours and who is called the new hope of conservatives) brought exactly opposite arguments: the planned operation is unlikely to shake Assad and can not guarantee that he will cease to use chemical weapons. After all, if Assad said Paul, once (August 21) he acted extremely illogically, realizing that an international reaction could follow a chemical attack, why would he suddenly begin to act with a balanced? “Who can guarantee that the American attack will lead to peace in the region”? “Will Russia not supply Assad with even more weapons”? President Putin answered this question in an interview with the first channel and the ASSOSIETED PRESS agency, saying that the contract for the supply of anti-aircraft missile systems of the S-300 air defense system is still suspended, but “if we see that some steps are being taken related to violation of existing international standards, we will think about how to do in the future, including the supply of such Sensitive weapons in certain regions of the world, ”he said, which scared the Western analysts a lot, who took these words as a threat. "Will Assad apply chemical weapons against Israel?" “Will Iran be more actively in the war (as a result of the US military operation) and is it possible to wait for Israel’s attack on Iran”? - Paul poured out with questions, demanding to include in the preparing resolution of the Congress on Syria that the operation would not begin without the approval of the congress. The correction was rejected, and the floor sarcastically asked: what will happen if the Congress still votes against? The final decision is for the president, but all the hopes that common sense will prevail and the congressmen will vote “for,” John Kerry answered and significantly glanced at his watch.
Exam for generals
But the lawmakers did not stop. "Minister Heigel, do you have an idea of the number of opposition forces (in Syria)?" -the Senator-Republican from the state of Wisconsin Ron Johnson, who could come to power if Bashar al-Assad’s regime, was inquired among the Minister of Defense. “I have no numbers. Our secret services have some estimates ... ” -“ I like to operate more with numbers, ”the Senator interrupted Hagel and immediately turned to the chairman of the United Committee of the Chiefs of Staff:“ General Deminks, do you have data about the rebel forces? ” -“I don’t remember so much as a keepsake, senator ...”-“But we have them (numbers), I can (bring them) ...”
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Putin and Obama as an old married couple - "constantly swear, but can not divorce"
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How will he behave (after the start of the US military) Russia? What if Assad with his allies responds to the escalation of the conflict and, say, Hezbollah will attack Israel? Why America was alone, having not received unequivocal military support from Turkey and other allies in the region, having lost - so far - the support of the main ally - the UK, whose parliament refused to vote on the Syrian issue before the report of the UN inspectors (the day later Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates declared their readiness to finance a military action against Syria), asked Senators, like examiners in the standings. “Russia condemned the use of chemical weapons”, “Israel has assured the United States that he could independently deal with Hezbollah, as he did more than once,” “We (administration) are undergoing continuous work with world leaders,” Kerry, Higel and Dampsis fought back. However, every time the issues concerned specific numbers and details of negotiations with the allies, as well as more detailed evidence of Damascus in the attack on August 21, all three postponed the answers: “We will discuss this at a closed meeting” (it took place on September 4 in the same composition, but its transcript is not available to a wide audience).
In the end, Senator Benjamin Cardin (author of the Magnitsky List) accused the Obama administration of slowness: they say, information has already appeared that Assad was moving military equipment and troops to the areas where the civilian population lives. Thus, the potential number of bombing victims increases sharply. Time works for us, General Deminka retorted: “We have the enormous resources of secret services that still determine goals are involved.” And John Kerry assured the senators that in the event of an attack, the US military would do everything to minimize the victims among the civilian population, intelligence outlining the goals also care about this in advance. And most importantly, the Secretary of State specified: the purpose of the military operation is not in any way to influence the course of the Civil War in Syria. Is there a moderate democratic opposition in Syria, capable of defeating not only Assad, but also marginal Islamist groups? Yes, I am sure Kerry. But the United States will help her only with money and weapons, but not bombing. The main thing is to bring Assad at the negotiating table in Geneva, not without optimism in his voice clarified by Kerry to Senators: “He (Assad) is still adamant, but the US intervention can make him change his behavior.” Whether this prophecy of the Secretary of State will come true - it is apparently not long to wait for an answer: according to military experts, the operation may begin on September 12.
Obama VS Congress
Despite the confident tone of the Obama administration, the September 11 vote does not look unambiguous. In order for the operation to be approved, at least 217 parliamentarians should vote for the resolution. At the time of delivery of the number, the unambiguous “yes” of the operation was said by 39 congressmen, 177 of their opinion did not express their opinions or did not determine and 224 spoke out against. In the meantime, in the meantime, options for amendments to the resolution are discussed, many of which provide if not cancellation, then the transfer of the operation. Thus, the version of the resolution proposed by the Democrat from West Virginia Joe Mancin, offers to put the ultimatum to Bashar Assad, forcing him to ratify the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons for 45 days, as well as begin the destruction of the arsenal.
For President Obama, not only a military operation in Syria was put on the card, but, according to analysts, and its prestige both within the country and in the international arena. Rosa Brooks, formerly an adviser to the US Department of Defense, so commented on Obama’s position in an interview with The New York Times: “If he succeeds in achieving a positive result, he will be obliged to these Republicans. If the congress votes against and Obama cancel the operation in Syria, his position will undoubtedly be very weakened, it will be isolated. ”
Who naughty
One of the most controversial issues of the Syrian dossier - where did chemical weapons come from in this country?The pentagon chief Chuck Heigel gave his answer on September 4: they say, among others, Russia supplies Damascus. On the same day, the Pentagon disinfected this statement, but Moscow decided not to leave it unanswered. On September 5, the head of the Presidential Administration, Sergei Ivanov, not calling Hageel by name, called such a view of things “the delirium of the Sivoy Mare”. Ivanov, however, had in mind the current format of relations with Damascus. And what was in Soviet times when the Baas party, led by Hafuz Assad, the father of the current Syrian leader, was one of the main allies of the USSR in the Middle East?
What is Cers?
One of the probable goals during the US military operation is the Syrian Research Center in Jamrai (CERS), where chemical and biological weapons have been developing for four decades. Hafez Assad founded Cers back in 1971 as a civilian on research in harmless areas as solar energy, water purification and telecommunications. But by a strange coincidence, the agency was directly subordinate to the president, and his head had ministerial powers. In reality, CERS, actively cooperating with Europe, tried to receive dual -purpose technologies that could help in the development of chemical weapons, the Foreign Policy magazine.
Europeans closed their eyes on the possible consequences of such cooperation, taking advantage of the fact that the Hafuz Assad regime did not spare money to finance Cers. The necessary equipment was purchased from UNESCO, and engineers went to study at the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS). According to the news agency in the Middle East, Mednews in 1992, until the early 1990s, the French government actively supported the desire of the French high-tech companies to cooperate with CERS. The Germans did not lag behind. In the mid-1980s, the West German company Schott Glasswerke put Damascus equipment for the production of super-strength glass for the so-called “Borosilicate Glass Project”, which in reality turned out to be a Zarin production project. According to Mednews, more than a dozen large German companies supplied CERS sensitive equipment.
Zarin on the knee
The West came to his senses only in the 90s. At first, the head of the CIA William Webster told Congress in 1989 that with the help of the West, "Syria was able to develop its own chemical weapons, and Western companies supplied the necessary ingredients and equipment." A year later, the Pentagon said that, according to American intelligence, Assad’s regime launched a grenade conveyor filled with a paralytic gas VX. This conveyor was located at an underground plant in the same place as Cers.
In 1992, the Europeans also closed the alarm, but it was too late: Syria became one of the largest owners of chemical weapons in the world, having received an OMP, one might say, quiet sapa.
The version of Foreign Policy in a conversation with The New Times was indirectly confirmed by Lev Fedorov, a chemical scientist, the president of the Union for Chemical Security. “I can’t exclude such probability, in the 70s the chemical weapon was not banned yet,” the scientist explained to the magazine, “it is clear that Syria did not receive technologies from the USSR: we have kept secrets and did not even share them with friendly Czechoslovaks.” However, according to Lev Fedorov, the USSR invested in the Syrian military-chemical industry with personnel: many specialists from Damascus studied at Soviet universities.
It is logical to assume that today the Syrian military chemists could be on different sides of the barricades: some still work at CERS or similar dual-purpose enterprises, while others could well end up. «Для специалиста произвести тот же зарин кустарным методом в подпольной лаборатории не составит труда, — пояснил Лев Федоров, — хотя на промышленные рельсы поставить такое производство непросто». И если атаку 21 августа Запад безоговорочно приписывает центральной власти, то несколько других случаев применения газа молва списывает на повстанцев. В частности, в мае член Независимой международной комиссии по расследованию событий в Сирии Карла дель Понте обвинила в применении зарина повстанцев.
Что делать с группировками, которые могут применить химическое оружие против регулярной армии, в Вашингтоне пока не обсуждают, но ясно одно: и режим, и повстанцы готовы травить друг друга до последнего вздоха.
| Страны — члены G20: кто Pro и кто Contra |
| "FOR" |
| Австралия . Премьер-министр Кевин Рудд заявил, что находится в постоянном контакте с Бараком Обамой и не будет «смотреть на Сирию сквозь пальцы». Великобритания . Премьер-министр Дэвид Кэмерон вынужден уважать решение английского парламента, отказавшегося 30 августа голосовать по сирийскому вопросу до ознакомления с отчетом инспекции ООН. Тем не менее сам он поддерживает США и Францию и обвиняет собственных парламентариев в неповоротливости: «Вам придется жить с тем, как вы проголосовали», — заявил Кэмерон 5 сентября. Индонезия . Премьер-министр Марти Наталегава осудил Дамаск за применение химического оружия и призвал «немедленно на это отреагировать». Italy. Глава МИД Италии Эмма Бонино поначалу заявляла, что «атака против Сирии может привести к «глобальной эскалации», а кризис решаем только дипломатическими методами. Но 6 сентября после саммита G20 Италия неожиданно присоединилась к совместному заявлению стран, поддержавших операцию. Канада . Премьер-министр Стивен Харпер призвал к «жесткому ответу» (Дамаску). Республика Корея . Министр обороны Ким Кван Джин: «Бездействие по сирийскому вопросу может послать неверный сигнал правительству КНДР». Saudi Arabia . Министр иностранных дел Сауд аль-Фейсал поддержал военную операцию США со словами: «Мы призываем все международное сообщество остановить агрессию против сирийского народа». Turkey . Анкара не только поддержала США, но и начала переброску танковых дивизий к турецко-сирийской границе, согласно официальным данным, «для укрепления границы». Точечных ударов недостаточно, а союзники должны сделать все, чтобы покончить с режимом Асада, заявил турецкий премьер Эрдоган. France . Президент Франсуа Олланд «уверен более чем когда-либо в необходимости удара», однако для него не стоит вопрос в том, чтобы «действовать в одиночку». Япония . Токио до сих пор не высказал официального мнения относительно операции в Сирии. Однако после встречи премьер-министра Синдзо Абэ и президента Обамы на полях саммита G20 последний высказал удовлетворение относительно «всестороннего обсуждения» по сирийскому досье. |
фотографии: Jason Reed/Reuters, Дмитрий Ловецкий/AP Photo