“We can continue to inject competition”

Experts on the consequences of the opposition's success

Will the recent successes of the opposition lead to the liberalization of the internal political course, or, on the contrary, will it turn into a new tightening of the screws? The New Times turned to politicians and experts for an answer

Konstantin Kostin, political strategist, former head of the Office of the President of the Russian Federation for Domestic Policy (2011–2012)

There will be no changes - they have already happened, but they were not noticed. This is the result of the reform that Vladimir Putin announced in his programmatic pre-election articles. He also spoke about this in his message (to the Federal Assembly) - we must stimulate political competition, because it is an unconditional blessing. And the versions of political scientists that, they say, there are frosts, pumping up a patriotic agenda, some other horrors - they cannot be considered the ultimate truth. I would not call the situation with the past elections critical, it is quite understandable and predictable. Something was expected, something unexpected, as in Petrozavodsk. The possible result of Alexei Navalny in the region of 25% was discussed at a meeting of Vyacheslav Volodin (First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration) with political scientists. But no one expected that the turnout would play on Navalny, that he would be able to mobilize his electorate in such a way. Talk about Yevgeny Roizman began after my foundation issued a forecast, where we wrote that both Roizman and Silin (vice-governor) have the same chances of winning in the elections in Yekaterinburg. Then, however, everyone took it as a revelation ...

On the next (single) voting day, the number of competitive elections will increase greatly because the political reform will continue.

Sergei Zheleznyak, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma, Deputy Secretary of the General Council of United Russia

The President has repeatedly spoken about the importance of an open competitive environment in the electoral process. And the State Duma adopted significant changes to the legislation. For example, the law on political parties was seriously liberalized, serious measures were taken to increase the transparency of the electoral process. The fact that new parties won seats in the legislature, and representatives of different political forces won the mayoral elections, suggests that there is no taboo on political activity. Now it is obvious: it is more expedient to allow an active person to realize himself in a legal field, to enlist the support of voters - otherwise he will act by illegal methods.

Will the liberalization trend continue? Life does not stand still, and legislation must also develop. But it is very important not to make hasty movements. It is necessary to understand how effective the adopted changes are, how all this will now work.

Dmitry Orlov, political scientist, member of the Supreme Council of United Russia

These elections legitimized the course that is being pursued and strengthened the power. Public confidence has definitely increased in it, even where the results seem to be unfavorable. The government has recognized that it can lose and build relationships with opposition candidates, so the political reform will continue. A bill is already being discussed to allow regions to reduce the proportion of deputies elected on party lists to 25%, another step towards the demand of citizens to be represented in regional parliaments by specific politicians. This speaks of the return of realpolitik.

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We saw how Vyacheslav Volodin proclaimed a policy of competition, and in the regions this was interpreted as the right to imprison anyone, if only to remove them from the elections

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Igor Bunin, political strategist

I didn't notice the "tightening the screws", but I didn't notice the desire to quickly dismantle the old system... The presidential administration believes that United Russia has achieved quite good results in the elections. As far as I know, Vyacheslav Volodin considers the emergence of new political forces in small numbers to be useful. That is, relatively speaking, the victory of Roizman, one place for the RPR-PARNAS in Yaroslavl, even the success of an ordinary woman in Petrozavodsk and the Patriots of Russia in Krasnoyarsk - all this is good for a system that, without injecting competition, simply wraps itself in a void.

The main conclusion of the authorities: nothing terrible has happened, it is possible to continue the gradual injection of competition, slow, controlled, at first affecting not the governors and regional legislative assemblies, but the municipal level and the level of mayors. And the elections to the Moscow City Duma in 2014 will also be very competitive. In Moscow, it is no longer possible to return the cork back to the bottle, although no drastic changes are foreseen yet.

Gleb Pavlovsky, political strategist

Today the country does not have what is called a political course. The policy of power is formed as a balance of three resultant factors: there are conflicting initiatives of the Kremlin, there is a struggle between different groups at the top for bonuses that are not always known to us, and there is an activation of regional authorities that take advantage of the new management vacuum. We saw how Vyacheslav Volodin proclaimed a course towards competition, and in the regions this was interpreted as the right to imprison anyone, as long as they eliminate (competitors) from the elections. And only thanks to the struggle surrounded by Vladimir Putin, someone like Alexei Navalny in Moscow or Yevgeny Roizman in Yekaterinburg managed to survive.

The results of the elections in Moscow open the door to the fourth factor - the factor of public self-organization, mass initiative, which can put up a barrier to a chaotic impulse from the depths of power. We are talking about the emergence of new actors, and over time they may create civil coalitions that will be able to pursue a fundamental political course - first for society, and then for the authorities.

Russia today has a "multipolar world" - everyone does what they want. This is a dangerous situation and it could get worse. The groups around the Kremlin will turn into political actors and will act openly, while the power structures will begin to behave even more rudely and frankly. I hope that within the next year some kind of crisis will force us to stop, because now the government is in a state of struggle of all against all, the economy is stagnating, and the population is slowly going berserk.

Oleg Sysuev, former Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of the Russian Federation (1997–1998), former First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation (1998)

I don't believe in the scenario of tightening and tightening the screws: the government is not really very strong, and it is incapable of it. Which, by the way, is also proved by the unpredictable situation with the July trial of Navalny.

People are tired of the irremovability of power, which is why Navalny received the votes not only of liberal-minded voters, but also of the older generation, which has always voted for power. But there will be no dramatic growth and consolidation of the protest movement - this is possible only if disgruntled state employees join the protesters. And they are happy with everything.

In general, a new generation is entering politics with new technologies that no Kremlin or other experienced political technologists own and that no sociologists who are accustomed to working at a routine level can predict. These technologies are well known in the West: people simply work with their feet, with their own heads, and strive to reach each voter personally. The authorities do not have the necessary tools to resist the new generation, and do not understand it. The authorities have unlearned how to grow, compete, absorb something new, and in a year the situation in the elections will be even more difficult for them.