Pavel Medvedev, financial ombudsman:

Photo: Kommersant / Valery Levitin

Photo: Kommersant / Valery Melnikov

1. Everything will be bad with the ruble, but not in the next month. Never before has oil been expensive and the ruble has fallen. The ruble is no longer affected by events in the USA or Europe; we are developing internal causes that will destroy everything around them. But in October the ruble will fluctuate within the current range - 32.4-32.8.

2. The situation with inflation will worsen, and in October we will see this according to statistics. There will be no catastrophe, but all sorts of stupid proposals have added fuel to the fire. It would be better to remain silent, but we all want to show that we have the control levers in our hands. Inflation in October will be slightly worse than average—about 1%.

3. Nothing will happen to world oil prices for economic reasons. Now a comfortable price has been established, and it will last for a long time.

4. The euro/dollar pair will remain at the current level. In the monthly dimension, it can only be affected by random events that cannot be foreseen.

John Hardy, head of foreign exchange strategy at Saxo Bank:

1. I believe that in the near future the dollar/ruble pair will stabilize and continue to trade within the range of 32-33.50 rubles per dollar, since the market reacted too violently to the situation in the short term. If equity markets fall sharply, we may see the top end of the summer range towards the end of the year.

2. Russian inflation will be quite subdued, although in the short term we may see a slight increase to 5.6-5.7% year on year compared to 5.5% in August due to the recent weakening of the ruble.

3. We may see pressure on oil prices due to easing tensions over Syria and the possible return of Libyan oil to the market. Plus the traditional decline in seasonal demand. The price of oil in October and November will decrease slightly and will fluctuate around $100-105 per barrel if geopolitical tensions do not ease.

4. The euro/dollar pair may strengthen a little more, perhaps to $1.38 per euro or slightly higher. However, the final outcome largely depends on whether Merkel will have to take a more generous stance towards Europe's peripheral countries.

Igor Nikolaev, director of the FBK Institute for Strategic Analysis

1. The ruble will gradually weaken and by the end of the month it will be at approximately 33.3 rubles per dollar or 33.15. This weakening is also due to American factors.

2. Inflation in October will remain relatively low - 0.3-0.4%. But for October this inflation is still quite high. Hopes for a high harvest were not justified. In this weather he couldn't be tall.

3. Oil will gradually become cheaper. Powerful geopolitical factors are involved. The situation in Syria has become calmer, and reconciliation with Iran is serious and long-lasting. There is a move towards lower oil prices. But while it will be insignificant, Brent will not fall below $100 in October.

4 The euro/dollar pair will be at 1.3 dollars per euro, maybe a little less - 1.28. The strengthening of the euro is influenced by some stabilization (not long-term) in the eurozone, as well as successful elections for Merkel.

Alexander Frenkel, head of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasts at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences:

1. A dollar will cost from 32.8 to 33 rubles. This is connected, in particular, with events in the United States, where the conflict between the central government and Congress continues. Moreover, the dollar has recently risen in price; at one time it cost less than 32 rubles.

2. Urals oil will cost about $111.6-111.8 per barrel in October. It’s not clear what’s happening with Syria, it’s not clear what’s happening with Libya. The situation in North Africa is unstable. But our physical volumes of oil have fallen, and it is not clear how they will increase.

3. Inflation in October will be 0.5%. Prices for agricultural products will stop falling, and utility services will begin to rise in price. And the general dynamics usually show that from August-September inflation begins to rise.

4. It is difficult for me to predict changes in the euro/dollar exchange rate from the current level of approximately $1.35 per euro. Firstly, the final results of the elections in Germany are unclear, whether Merkel will have the necessary majority. Secondly, the outcome of events in the United States is unclear.

Experts – Power – Kommersant