E.Noroozi / AP

Statements by Iranian officials and upcoming talks on the Iranian nuclear issue next week are causing cautious optimism. On Monday, the country's president, Hassan Rouhani, said that the country's leadership is determined to resolve the issue as soon as possible. The Wall Street Journal recently suggested that Tehran is ready for major concessions. However, a reset or rapid progress in the negotiations should not be expected. Iran has not taken many steps that the West considers fundamental. It has not abandoned uranium enrichment from 5 to 20% and has not allowed IAEA inspectors into important facilities.

According to Vladimir Yevseyev, Director of the Center for Socio-Political Research, the delay reflects the complexity of the domestic political situation in the country. President Rouhani's international initiatives, including softening rhetoric and attempts to reach an agreement on the nuclear program, are dissatisfied with part of the clergy and radical representatives of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who occupy important positions in the state hierarchy and the economy. The scale of the reductions in the nuclear project, the subsequent easing and lifting of sanctions depend on the political skill of the Iranian president and the mood of religious leaders.

But it is not only about Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran’s participation in the conference on Syria is also important. Tehran is the main ally of Bashar al-Assad and the radical Islamic group Hezbollah. Even a limited relaxation of tensions could lead to significant changes in the Middle East and neighboring regions. Iran’s attention should probably be drawn not only to its nuclear program, but also to its risky investments in the Assad regime. According to Western estimates, since the beginning of the unrest in Damascus in the spring of 2011, Tehran has allocated about $14 billion (more than 3% of annual GDP) to the Syrian authorities. This money could be used to replace the oil revenues that have been cut by sanctions.

The West's rapprochement with Iran will also benefit Russia. Reducing aid to Assad could spur Damascus to meaningful negotiations, the progress of which would reflect positively on Russia's image in the region. The curtailment of the nuclear project and the IRGC's announcement that Iran will abandon ballistic missile production (if true) will allow Moscow to push harder for a reduction in the missile defense program in Europe.

From the editor: Iranian detente