The war for the oligarchs

The news that the president generously shared with journalists at the APEC summit at Bali could sometimes pull on a full sensation. But one obviously did not. It is understandable. The initiative undertaken by the monopoly “not without the knowledge of the Russian leadership”, with all the desire, will not be called a systematic solution of the notorious gas conflict, sitting with a splinter in relations between Kiev and Moscow.

First of all, it is only a one -time discount for specific goals. The preferential price of $ 260 per 1000 cubic meters. m. will only apply to 17-20 billion cubic meters, which Ukraine agreed to buy for pumping in its PHG. Despite the fact that, within the framework of the current contract, designed until 2019, Gazprom's fuel costs Naftogaz $ 360-390 per thousand cubic meters.

Despite the beneficial profit, the transaction is beneficial to Gazprom already because it destroys the risk of problems with the transit of his gas to Europe. But this agreement has another important nuance that stains it in completely new colors. He applies to the one who, in fact, acts in it by the Ukrainian counterparty of Gazprom. So the discount will not receive Ukraine as a whole, and not even Naftogaz. The buyer of Russian gas at a preferential price will be OSTCHEM - a large chemical holding specializing in the production of mineral fertilizers and the Dmitry Firtash Group DF - an influential Ukrainian oligarch, who built his branched business in mediation when delivering Russian energy carriers to Ukraine. Firtash is considered the close of President Yanukovych (according to some reports, it was he who sponsored the presidential campaign of Yanukovych).

It is worth recalling that Firtash was listed as one of the Ukrainian co-owners registered in Switzerland Rosukrenergo (Rue), created in 2004 for the work of the mediator of Gazprom during the transportation of Turkmen gas through Russia to Ukraine and Eastern Europe. A year later, after the victory of the “Orange”, Rue was in the center of the grandiose scandal. The newly made prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko accused the country's former leadership of using this company to launder money and made a lot of efforts to “remove” it from the pipe.

To remove Rue from the diagram of bilateral gas relations by Orange, however, it was possible only in 2009. Then the notorious ten -year contract was signed on the supply of Russian gas between Gazprom and Naftogaz, which today causes so much irritation in Kyiv. And for which the “Orange Princess” - it was worth changing the authorities - was formally sent to the bunks. Moreover, as is commonly believed, it was Firtash that put the main hand to the landing of Tymoshenko, which, by the way, put President Yanukovych in a very ambiguous position and set up Europe against him.

One way or another, selling gas to Firtash at a preferential price, Russia kills several hares at once. So, back in June, Alexei Miller, referring to the previous negative experience, openly stated that Gazprom “never and under no circumstances” would store his fuel in Ukrainian storage facilities, no matter how favorable they were these conditions.

Read: if in the midst of winter Ukraine again has a desire to steal gas from a Russian pipe, then with the claims of Europe she will have to deal with her herself (in the person of Naftogaz or Ostchem), not Gazprom.

But, obviously, in Moscow they make a much larger bet on Firtash, among other Ukrainian “oligarchs”, tied to Russian deliveries and markets. In fact, the “oligarchs” are the only real force that can turn the vector of Ukrainian politics in the Russian direction. And given the growing dissatisfaction with the strengthening of the influence of the “family” of Yanukovych, the Kremlin’s attempts to vulgarly buy the loyalty of the local oligarchy do not look such a meaningless venture.

The preferential contract with Ostchem can be interpreted as an understandable broadcast of a simple thought: cooperation with Moscow promises specific people in Ukraine quite specific dividends. The information is especially valuable, given the extremely complex position in which the Ukrainian industry is in. Here, let’s say, only in September, Firtash began a fan stop for the production of complex fertilizers for prevention (that is, due to the lack of solvent demand), as a super-free contract with Gazprom arrived in October.

Wow, what a coincidence!

The mechanism works in the opposite direction. If you are a “bad” oligarch, then benzapiren can find in your sweets - very dangerous, you know, carcinogen - even if you did not put it there. (For reference: the owner of the Roshen concern, the billionaire Petro Poroshenko in great love for Russia is not seen, but at one time actively sponsored the "orange".)

It will be possible to evaluate the effectiveness of the tactics chosen by Moscow on November 29. On this day, at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, it is planned to sign the agreement of the Ukrainian Association with the EU. And if the document is signed (by the way, Rospotrebnadzor recently became interested in the quality of Estonian fish and milk, although before that, neither ear nor a snout), it is possible that more radical measures will have to be involved in the Kremlin. Say, launch a “gas club” hidden to the time.

So, nothing prevents Moscow from making claims at the beginning of next year - formally completely legal - for the shortage of Russian gas, the volume of which is now comparable with the magnitude of Ukrainian gold and foreign exchange reserves. Their recovery (in court or somehow) threatens the Ukrainian economy with a collapse. So far, Moscow has not taken any real steps to recover the arrears from Ukraine, obviously, hoping to agree and/or prevent Falstarta before the main event - the elections of the President of Ukraine, which should take place on March 29, 2015.

Alas, even if the Kremlin’s rate plays, and the Ukrainian “oligarchs” will be put in the presidential chair of “our” person, this does not guarantee that Ukraine will move in the Russian fairway. Correct, if I'm wrong: I remember, once Viktor Yanukovych was also considered “ours”?