Investors are in no hurry to buy shares of diamond -mining "Alrosa" as part of IPO

Investors are in no hurry to buy shares of the Alrosa diamond company, which announced in early October about the beginning of the initial public placement (IPO), during which it is planned to sell up to 16% of the company's shares.

According to experts, investors believe that the declared price (35-38 rubles per paper) is too high - on Monday, a book of applications, opened on October 14, was not yet filled. And on Friday, October 25, it should be closed, on October 28, shares will begin to bargain on the Moscow Exchange.

The collection of applications is not easy, according to the Prime Agency, due to the high price and existing risks. Experts note that the company retains the leadership of the reserves and extraction of diamonds and works in the market characterized by attractive long -term fundamental indicators. However, in order to realize its potential, Alrosa needs to cope with important operating and commercial risks. And some of them, in particular, related to the diamond market, are outside the control of the Russian company, says the analyst at the Aton IC Dinnur Galikhanov.

According to FG BCS analyst Oleg Petropavlovsky, many investors will prefer to wait for the shares and buy papers on the "secondary".

According to the agency, Alrosa has already met in the USA, Europe, Great Britain and in a number of Scandinavian countries. And although there are no investors who would refuse to participate in the IPO, but also agreed.

The head of Alrosa Fedor Andreev previously stated that the company's estimates are hesitating in the range from 9 to 15 billion dollars, but now, according to the most optimistic estimates, the capitalization of the diamond-useer does not exceed $ 8.6 billion and may fall even lower, the magazine "Company" writes, recalling that the owner of the Nafta-Moskvo group Suleiman Kerimov sold immediately before the IPO. His share in Alrosa is cheaper than the lower boundary of the declared price - for only 33 rubles per share.

As the publication recalls, the idea of ​​privatization of the company belongs to the ex-Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin, who since 2001 headed her observation council and conducted the so-called federalization of the company when control over the diamond giant transferred from the Government of Yakutia to the federal center. After his resignation of the privatization of Alrosa, they stopped talking because of economic inappropriateness, but now the privatization of the company is the only opportunity for the government of Dmitry Medvedev at least to somehow fulfill the program of privatization of state property for 2013, the magazine notes.

“The privatization plan was torn off, and the Ministry of Economic Development set the task to sell at least something.“ Alrosa ”is the most interesting asset that can be privatized quite quickly,” explained Dmitry Abzalov, vice president of the Center for Strategic Communications.

"The need for a budget for accommodation can be an excuse. Persons interested in IPO know what they are doing and they are trying to use a convenient moment," said Alexei Mukhin, director of the political information center.

The President of the Moscow Partners investment, Evgeny Kogan, recommends paying attention to structures that can benefit from this, as well as their affiliation with the company's management. The managers, by the way, should not be in the same way without this: a public company that will become Alrosa after an IPO can more likely motivate its employees from a financial point of view than state.

Many experts are skeptical of the success of the upcoming IPO "Alrosa" and note that the time for this is not the best now. “Although there is a lot of free money in the financial markets, investors are busy with American problems,” says RYE, Man & Gor Securities, Andrei Tretens. In his opinion, the diamond producer costs more than is voiced in the price corridor of the placement, and more expensive than the early assessments of the company. It could be sold and more profitable if they were not in a hurry with IPO and chose the correct tactics and time. “The last six months in the securities market is not a very good conjuncture,” Oleg Petropavlovsky emphasizes. “The Almazov market has been standing in place for about a year, and it is unlikely that prices will move up.”

In addition, the organizers of the placement did not take into account another moment - the place of placement. “The Moscow Exchange was chosen for political reasons - the Russian capital should become an international financial center,” says Raiffeisenbank Analyst Konstantin Yuminov. “But this can limit the placement. IPO in London would be more interesting.”

It is also possible that the rush with the IPO is caused by the desire to improve the company's image. IPO usually makes the ownership structure much more civilized, market and transparent. And not so long ago, the former vice-president of Alrosa Yuri Dozinikov accused the head of the company Fedor Andreev of inefficiency, declaring the opacity of transactions in subsidiaries. After that, some deputies of the Legislative Assembly of Yakutia even demanded to suspend the IPO before the audit, but their proposal did not pass.

According to the publication, in any case, there is no state expediency in partial privatization of Alrosa: there is no budget hole from the sale of shares, and experts do not see the benefits of IPO in today's format.