Translated material
Five days before the "Dream"
Who will take the place of Mikhail Saakashvili
The presidential race in Georgia reached the finish line: October 27 - elections. Who has more likely to occupy the office of Mikhail Saakashvili and why - The New Times found out on the spot
Together with Mikhail Saakashvili, a whole era will leave the presidential residence
From Dynamo, the main stadium of Tbilisi, to the central market - literally a stone's throw. The place near the stadium is a crowded, which the most lively merchants did not fail to take advantage of: right on the corner it sells the seeds of Nene-Bobo (grandmother Nene)-this is the name of the neighbors of the 67-year-old pensioner Nineli Zaldastanishvili. “I want to have at least 500 Larry (about $ 300) every month,” she voices her “Georgian Dream” at The New Times.
Nen-Bobo and I have been familiar with more than a dozen years. All these years it does not change. Shevardnadze, Saakashvili, Ivanishvishi-Nene-Bobo both dreamed and dreams of "500 Lari a month." Now she hopes that her dream will be fully fulfilled by George Margvelashvili, a presidential candidate from the Georgian Dream that won the parliamentary elections, led by Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili: “He (Margvelashvili) promises - means he will do it. But let's let Misha (Saakashvili) with God, and everything will be fine. ”
The voice of the people
October 27, on elections day, Nene-Bobo intends to change the location. He says that the most profitable thing is to stand at the entrance to the polling station. It is difficult to argue with her - she already has a lot of votes on her account ...
The 62-year-old taxi driver Irakli is going to wait for customers from the polling station. Experience shows: in the morning you can make good money. “People come to the sites, and then hurry to work,” Irakli explains. Let the Russian reader not be surprised: many Georgians, according to surveys, up to 40 %, work, or rather, try to earn money on weekends. Life forced.
Irakli used to work in the police, Bombit for seven years. He lost the work under Saakashvili - many of the “scoops” with the then government with Western education, those who were over 50 were not needed - could not find a new one. On the 27th, Irakli will also vote for Margvelashvili. "For whom else?" He asks with genuine interest.
Three "whales"
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| George Margvelashvili, Favorite race. In life - not a politician. But studying |
Three favorites: George Margvelashvili, David Bakradze and Nino Burdzhanadze - candidates from the ruling party "Georgian Dream", now the opposition "Unified National Movement" and almost disgraced under Mikhail Saakashvili "Democratic movement - a single Georgia." The remaining 20 candidates (an unprecedented number for Georgia), registered to participate in the 2013 presidential election, are noticeably behind.
According to sociological surveys, which are published in Georgia with enviable regularity (data published by Center for Civil Involvement following a survey in Tbilisi - The New Times), the leading positions a week before the voting day is occupied by Marglavvili - 32.70 %. 28.70 - at Burjanadze, and 14.06 - at David Bakradze. As the experience shows, the candidate who secured the highest place on the catwalk a week before the elections, and remains on it.
But Burjanadze and Bakradze continue to fiercely fight for the electorate, constantly changing places in the ratings. Moreover, the difference in their election tactics is noticeable: the candidate from the “nationals” of vigorous statements about the upcoming victory in the elections, but the leader of the “democratic movement” is sure that it will become the next president of the country. And the first thing she will do is Mikhail Saakashvili in jail. The second will make every effort to ensure that Vano Merrabishvili (former Prime Minister of Georgia, the closest associate of Saakashvili.-The New Times) has not left for a long time (from prison).
Time for promises
On October 27, for the first time in the modern history of Georgia, the people will not choose a deity, but a person: the electorate does not have an idol, which, of course, were Zviad Gamsakhurdia, Eduard Shevardnadze and Mikhail Saakashvili. Many sociologists see a big plus in this: they say, Georgians are politically growing up, get rid of illusions. But there is one “but”: Margvelashvili, if chosen, is not for personal qualities, but for the fact that he is a protege of Bidzina Ivanishvili.
And by the way, the candidate from the "dream" himself perfectly understands this. He even once stated that he himself reminds himself of plasticine: "Where you throw it, it will take such a form." And another 44-year-old Margvelashvili, Doctor of Philosophy, Minister of Education and Science in the Government of Dreams, admitted that in life he is not a politician. However, he is ready to study.
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"I am like plasticine: where you throw it, he will take this form"
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And I must admit, he succeeds well. The candidate from the "Dream" has an effective team of PR specialists who meticulously studied the mood of voters. More than a year has passed after the parliamentary elections, and the main requirements of the population of Georgia are still “restoration of justice” and “punishment of the executioners of the regime”. At the same time, no one thinks that the so -called “executioners”, in principle, have already been punished - Vano Merabishvili and Bacho Ahalai (former Minister of Defense of Georgia) are sitting in prison. The other day, ex-minister of defense David Kzerashvili was detained in France. In the event of the victory of “dreamers” to leave his post, the head of the Council of Security, the chief ideologist of the “nationals” of Gig Bokeria promises. There is only Mikhail Saakashvili so far: he promises to stay in politics, in which status it is still unknown ...
But the Margvelashvili team nevertheless sensitively caught a public request by drawing the slogan “restore justice” on the pre -election banner of the party of the party. Visited, yes. And not original. But reliable.
However, “restoration of justice” is the main, but not the only promise of “dreams”. The creation of jobs, new plants, the development of agriculture - all this remains on the agenda. But it is possible to achieve all this only in that case, the party in power warns, if the passive-method of “cochabitation” is laid-this newfangled term in Georgia means the peaceful coexistence of various political forces, as well as the executive, legislative and local authorities. Simply put: the allies and fellow travelers are not needed.
Candidate from “Nationals” David Bakradze (in the picture - next to Mikhail Saakashvili): “Dream” does not work ”
But the "nationals" against the "cochibitation" have nothing. David Bakradze constantly repeats: if he defeats the 27th, he is ready to cooperate with political opponents "at any format and at any level." But to say is not enough. It is also necessary to believe you. And they believe Bakradze is not particularly. The reason, as many experts believe, is that he chose tactics that are very characteristic of the “nationals” is to constantly indicate the shortcomings of rivals. The 12 -second advertising videos of the "Nationals" go with a laconic slogan: "Dream" does not work. " Maybe it is so, but this slogan of the Bakradze campaign clearly works as a minus ...
| *In May 2011, the Opposition Association “People’s Assembly”, one of the leaders of which at that moment was Nino Burjanadze, held a number of mass, but toless protests with the use of violence in relation to law enforcement. |
The main promise of Nino Burjanadze is to establish relations with Russia. How exactly she is going to do this, the former ally of Saakashvili and the ex-speaker of the Georgian parliament does not specify. But “this is exactly the“ bread ”that the people so longed for,” she is sure. Nino must pay tribute: second place in the race is a great achievement. “After the bloody events on May 26, 2011 in Tbilisi, the responsibility for which many Georgians assigned to Burjanadze and her associates, Nino, it turns out, managed to rehabilitate herself in the eyes of the public,” said political scientist Mamuk Areshidze*.
Who pays?
The costs of the election race pays, oddly enough, mainly the state. Moreover, this year the situation was extremely interesting, although it is, in comparison with the last election, when the score was in millions of Lari, about the amounts of far from astronomical. Only 100 thousand Lary ($ 66 thousand) were allocated to the election campaign of the ruling party, but six times more (!). In addition, all political parties receive donations. Burjanadze received the most “subsidies”: private individuals and organizations transferred her 400 thousand Lari ($ 240 thousand), 140 thousand Lari ($ 85 thousand) donated a “single national movement” and only 1 thousand 500 Lari - the “Georgian dream”. These are indicators over the past month. Hence, in principle, such a low degree of the election race: neither the turbulent election rallies and manifestations, not to mention the scandals and war of compromises - the campaign is surprisingly calm.
However, experts find this not only a financial explanation. “The constitutional environment has changed in Georgia: the presidential elections are now not as important as before. After all, now the Premier and Prime Minister has much more real power, ”explains Elena Hotaria, the New Times Expert technology expert at the electoral technologies. “In addition, in these elections, unlike the previous ones, there is no pronounced leader.”
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"The constitutional environment has changed in Georgia: the presidential elections are not as important as before"
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We have to agree: the Georgian people are so calm in the olimpian that the question of who will become the president has long been decided and is not discussed: Margvelashvili, who else. Moreover, the majority will give him their votes as a tribute to Bidzine Ivanishvili.
But for David Bakradze, people offended by the current government will mainly vote. Maybe there are a lot of them, but by no means enough to win. In addition, citizens offended by the previous government are several times more. And this is the error of the Saakashvili reformist team: the people from whom they got rid of as the “ballast of the Soviet era” over the past ten years will now get rid of them without much effort ...
The closer the election day, the more actively the probability of the second round of voting is discussed. Although Margvelashvili and is ahead of the remaining participants in the race, more than 50 % of the votes necessary to win in the first round, he, according to polls, still does not gain. However, the prime minister of Bidzin Ivanishvili is sure that there will be no second round. “I do not even allow such a situation,” Ivanishvili said at a meeting with the editors of the print media. “And in general, in the event of the second round, I advise Margvelashvili to withdraw my candidacy - the result is less than 50% to mean that the population does not express the necessary trust in us.”
Ungrateful people?
To be honest, the Georgians are tired-wait, fight, choose ... voted last year for a “dream”-it seems that they should now gain some kind of confidence. But she was not, and no. But a feeling of confusion is growing. Time goes on: month, another, third ... year. The second one went. And the difference is not yet seen. But stagnation is visible. The frightening stagnation, which without any words pushes to the conclusion: in the near future Georgia should not be expected in the near future.
“We are an ungrateful people,” the journalist, who was still desperately supporting the “nationals” Saakashvili, admitted the other day. - Here, for example, Misha’s people repaired my neighbor a house that was damaged during an earthquake. And what do you think? Instead of “thank you,” the neighbor is outraged - I don’t like, you see, the tile that they put in the bathroom. And I explain to him: after all, you would never even be able to buy such a tile! And he repeats his everything. ”
An ungrateful Georgian people or grateful - time will tell. Today, one thing is clear: together with Mikhail Saakashvili, a whole era will leave the presidential residence. Small in time, but very bright. With their victories and defeats, colossal achievements and great disappointments. Total civil progress and total - this is true! - Control. The era is contradictory, but enchantingly dynamic and desperately bold. The era of charismatics in power.
Some experts do not exclude: Mikhail Saakashvili will still return to politics. In any case, for ten years to understand the path he has definitely has. The ideologist of the “Revolution of Roses” is still silent about this. The declared plans are only the construction of the presidential library. “It is time to scatter stones in Georgia,” Saakashvili said the other day. But, you see, it is difficult to believe that a person who dared to speak and act contrary to the Kremlin will be content with the propaganda of educational programs ...
Photos: David Mjinarishvili/Reuters, Vano Shlamov/AFP/East News