When will the world drown in garbage?

By 2100, the volume of daily production of waste will triple and amount to 11 million tons per year, the Nature magazine said . In 2010, this indicator was only 3.5 million tons per year. This will happen if the main trends do not change, the population of the planet will approach 9.5 billion people by the end of the 21st century, and urbanization will reach 80%. In the graph below, this scenario is indicated

blue

color.

However, with all this, the population can continue to grow and reach 13.5 billion people by 2100 - this scenario is displayed in red. Finally, if megalopolises-the largest waste manufacturers-will seriously deal with their processing (for example, San Francisco is already processing 55% of the garbage), then the peak of waste production in the world will have to be 2075, and then begin to decline (gray on the graphics).

Daily waste production, million tons

Source: Nature

Even with the unfavorable development of events, the rich countries and OECR countries will reduce the amount of waste, this trend is not expanded - the population is not growing there, and therefore the peak will be passed in 2050 (see the schedule below). The main drivers of the growth of volumes will be South Asia and Africa south of Sahara with their growing population and ineffective policy. Democular production of waste, million tons of regions:

Africa south of Sahara

,

East Asia and the countries of the Pacific region

,

Europe and Central Asia

,

South Asia

,

Latin America and Caribbean countries

,

Middle East and North Africa

,

countries with a high level of income of the population and member countries of the OECR

.

Source: Nature