The Duma cannot decide how to choose it

The Duma continues to delay the consideration of the bill on parliamentary elections. The relevant committee on constitutional law and state building proposed to transfer amendments that were supposed to be prepared by November of this year, for February 2014. Thus, the adoption of the law, which was spoke of President Medvedev in his message to the Federal Assembly in December 2011, is postponed indefinitely.

The bill was supposed to answer the question of how many single-mandate will still be in the new Duma since 2016. Now the lower house of parliament is elected only on party lists. Regional and municipal Zaks were chosen according to a mixed system: half according to the lists, the other as single -mandate. However, the law that reduces part of the mandates in the regions in party registrations up to 25%was adopted by the State Duma last week. According to statistics, experts said more than once, in most cases representatives of United Russia win in single -mandate districts.

How much more can the adoption of the Law on the Duma elections be delayed? According to the vice president of the Center for Political Technologies, Alexei Makarkin, the main thing is now to decide whether this distribution will look like half a half, or party lists will look symbolically: one quarter. Perhaps Makarkin believes, the federal center will wait for the next fall to look at how single -mandate will perform in the elections to the Moscow City Duma. But the bill can be adopted earlier, if the optimal format is found, the expert adds.

And the deputy chairman of the relevant committee, the deputy from the Communist Party Vadim Soloviev does not exclude that "they can reach until 2016, when the State Duma elections should be held so that it can be better oriented." “All calculations show that United Russia will have serious problems with the party list. The presidential administration is now trying to feverishly decide who will come to the first place: "United Russia" or the Popular Front? If the Popular Front, they put forward authoritative people in the regions. These are doctors, and workers, and law enforcement officials. And they will try to completely close the authority of United Russia to be completely closed by single -mandates of the Popular Front. But so far the decision has not been made. And it is with this that I associate his endless deposit, ”he says.

True, the former deputy secretary of the General Council of the Party of Government, and now-the head of the Scientific Council of the Center for the Political Conjuncture, Alexei Chesnakov, believes that the ONF will still not become a full-fledged political structure. As for the deadlines, it is unlikely that with the adoption of the law they will reach until 2016: there is an unspoken rule that it is impossible to change the legislation before the election in less than a year.

According to Chesnakov, the question is about the survival of old parties, those that are already in parliament. With a mixed system, the risks that they will not get into the Duma even with a five percent barrier are extremely large. “It is known that single -mandates of the Communist Party and LDPR will face big problems. Parties so far only in general terms understand how they will build their strategy, ”he says. As for the authorities, it is now important for her to have quite accurate calculations: what will the parliament be based on a new scheme? Based on this, coalition strategies will have to be built. So far, Chesnakov believes, "for them it is a rather complicated model and they are not ready to answer how much they can move." At the same time, there is a danger that the main task will not be achieved - to increase the trust of citizens to the result, the legitimation of the election results. “A mixed system can lead to a situation not so favorable. It is possible that citizens will not see quite the Duma that they count on. It will be necessary to explain to people why United Russia receives 35–40%, and in the State Duma has a representation of 70%. And such a result is not excluded if it performs well with single -mandate - given the fact that they will all work with representatives of the executive branch, ”he says, indicating that now the redistribution of votes in favor of the winner after applying the barrier causes some discomfort by citizens. The point is that the voices in favor of parties that have not passed the 7-percent barrier, respectively, leave the winning parties. That is how United Russia, who received 49.5%in the State Duma in the State Duma in 2011, was still able to maintain control over the parliament. “Pulling out the process of accepting the bill demonstrates porridge in the heads. This at least looks like the recognition of incompetence or the recognition that they did not have and did not have a formulated strategy of political reform, ”the former ideologist of the party in power said.