In uniform

It is too early to summarize the work of Shoigu

November 6, 2013 Alexander Golts

Several domestic newspapers at once decided to mark the first anniversary of the parish of Sergey Shoigu for the post of Minister of Defense. The authors as a whole very positively evaluate his activities. Especially highlighting the calm, respectful leadership style, abandonment of attempts to break the army "Range through the knee" are especially distinguished. At the same time, when it comes to specifics, they recall the remarkable and, most importantly, purely fundamental decisions of Sergey Shoigu: the return of the Suvorovites to military parades, the refusal to cook food on exercises by third -party organizations, etc. Forgetting, however, that Shoigu did not need to break anything. All the “dirty” work on the dismissal of more than two hundred thousand officers and warrant officers, the transfer of divisions into the brigade made Anatoly Serdyukov now cursed by everyone. So far, the most important reforms of the former minister, which boiled down to the rejection of the mass mobilization army, have not been subjected to revision. If you call a spade a spade, Sergei Shoigu “ennobled” in some way due to his authority and a solid rating just Serdyukov reforms. Well, this is the usual path of Russian reforms: at first the situation is brought to a completely critical, then “the forest is chopped, chips fly”, then someone removes the chips ...

And yet, it seems to me, colleagues hurried to take the results of Sergei Shoigu. It seems that right now he is approaching a turning point in his career of the head of the military department. A month ago, the minister made an unexpected statement that testifies that he is aware of the main problem that the armed forces are faced with today: “The department ceases to chase the number of conscripts and“ catch ”them through the military commissariats. We want this either do not want it, but the army should become a contract, or we must recruit conscripts for at least five years. The complexity of weapons systems is such that we are a conscript at least in a year, at least two will not prepare for him to fight on this weapons. ”

Moreover, Shoigu said that the number of conscripts would be reduced by thousands and promised to report specific numbers in November. Most likely, this should happen at the final collegium of the military department, which traditionally present the highest leaders of the state. And here is a snag. Like it or not, Sergey Shoigu will be forced to convey to Putin: the order of the Supreme Commander -in -Chief that by January 1, 2015 the number of armed forces should be 1 million military personnel was fulfilled under any conditions. If the number of the army will be reduced to reasonable 600-700 thousand, it would be a new huge step in army reform. If the number is preserved, then no reduction in the number of conscripts will occur. After all, only the formal preservation of the mass appeal enables military bureaucrats to manipulate numbers and maintain the appearance of the millionth army.

But it is worth making a reasonable decision to reduce the number of armed forces, the problems that will most likely prevent Shoigu will immediately get a calm style of leadership. It will be necessary to decide what to do with an excessive number of senior officers, what to do with 15 thousand listeners and cadets of military schools, which are scored this year. I suspect that in this case, those who now sings the merits of Shoigu will die their ardor ...

Photo by ITAR-TASS/ Alexey Nikolsky