Two weeks before the summit, at which Ukraine planned to sign an association and free trade agreement with the European Union, the local authorities demonstrated that they were ready to backtrack. The government said that the country's priority is relations with Russia. The ruling Party of Regions, in turn, noted that Ukraine is suffering heavy losses due to cooling relations with the Russian Federation and cannot ignore this. One of the EU's key conditions for signing the agreement—the release of ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko or at least sending her abroad for treatment—was never fulfilled by the Ukrainian authorities.

Ukrainian media write that the association with the EU ” is “buried . Political scientists, commenting on Kyiv’s foreign policy turn, associate it with recent meetings between the presidents of Ukraine and Russia. EU representatives, for their part, warn that if an agreement with Ukraine is not signed at the summit scheduled for the end of November, then it will be possible to return to this issue only in a few years.

For Brussels, all this threatens to turn into a major political failure. The planned agreement with Armenia, which was also expected to be approved at the summit at the end of November, has already been disrupted: Yerevan has chosen in favor of Russia and the Customs Union. Now the EU may lose the battle for Ukraine. For Kyiv, the current situation provides opportunities for bargaining, even allowing it to blackmail Europe with a refusal to agree.

This factor also manifested itself in the confrontation around Yulia Tymoshenko. EU representatives, who have repeatedly condemned the persecution of the ex-prime minister in Ukraine and demanded her release (or at least allow the former head of government to receive treatment abroad), clearly linked this issue with the association agreement. In Kiev, they seemed to be encouraged, but they were in no hurry to fulfill this condition: President Viktor Yanukovych did not make a decision to pardon Tymoshenko, entrusting her fate to parliament, while bills on the treatment of prisoners abroad, introduced by deputies, were rejected by representatives of the ruling party. The deputies created a working group that was supposed to develop a single project, but it got stuck in endless disputes between representatives of the authorities and the opposition.

As a result, all deadlines for the adoption of the “Tymoshenko law” were missed. On Wednesday, November 13, a commission designed to assess Ukraine’s readiness for association with the EU presented its report to the European Parliament (its representatives closely monitored the situation around Tymoshenko and appealed to Yanukovych with a request for her release). Next Monday, November 18, at a meeting of the EU Council, a final decision should be made whether to sign an agreement with Ukraine or not.

Ukrainian deputies gathered for a meeting on the same day as the European ones - November 13 (the next plenary meeting of the Verkhovna Rada will now take place only on November 19). They never adopted any of the bills on the treatment of prisoners abroad. Speaker of Parliament Vladimir Rybak said that the documents need to be improved.

Brussels then found itself in an awkward position. Attempts to get Tymoshenko out of prison (more precisely, from the Kharkov hospital, where she is a prisoner) actually failed. The Ukrainian authorities have made it clear that they are not yet abandoning the agreement with the EU, but they are also not going to fulfill the condition for the release of the ex-prime minister.

“Ukraine has fulfilled all technical tasks [of the European Union]. Some political questions remain. But these remaining issues are not of decisive importance... So we count on the success of the summit in Vilnius,” noted Ukrainian Foreign Minister Leonid Kozhara. And a deputy from the ruling Party of Regions, Mikhail Chechetov, said that the West, fearing that Russia will lose the fight for influence in Ukraine, is “ready to sign anything.”

In the European Parliament, where this issue was discussed on November 13, some deputies called not to make concessions to Ukraine. “The agreement cannot be signed at any cost. The European Union cannot give in. The release of Tymoshenko, or at least her departure for treatment, has always been a condition for signing the agreement,” said, in particular, the head of the Green faction, Rebecca Harms. The leadership of a number of EU countries, in turn, expressed hope that all is not lost and in the time remaining before the summit (it will be held on November 28-29 in Vilnius), the Tymoshenko issue can still be resolved. The final decision on whether to sign an agreement with Ukraine was ultimately postponed by the MEPs: they extended the stay of the EP mission in the republic and intend to appeal to the EU Council with a request that it also postpone its verdict on Ukraine.

Banner with a portrait of Yulia Tymoshenko at an opposition rally in Kyiv, November 13.

Representative of the mission Alexander Kwasniewski now estimates the chances of signing the agreement as 50 to 50. Lithuania, which currently chairs the European Union, said that the agreement “can be saved” if Yanukovych “shows leadership and responsibility.” However, the head of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry Linas Linkevicius, who commented on this topic, spoke without much optimism. “If you are asking whether it is possible to say today that the signing will definitely not take place, then I would not say so,” he told reporters.

According to Ukrainian political scientist Taras Berezovets, the chances of signing an agreement with the European Union have already decreased “literally to one percent.” At the same time, the refusal of the agreement, as he believes, will not mean that the Ukrainian authorities will make a choice in favor of the Customs Union with Russia. “Ukraine will maintain a neutral status, Yanukovych will not release Tymoshenko, and he is not going to make a tragedy out of the failure of the association. But at the same time, the head of the Ukrainian state will try to get maximum economic benefits from Russian President Vladimir Putin,” the expert believes . Such benefits, in his opinion, could be a discount on Russian gas and receiving a billion-dollar loan from Russia, “which can be used to stabilize the situation in the country.”

The failure of the agreement, if it does come to that, has already been predicted in the press. , in particular, wrote about the possibility of such a development of events At the end of October , Ukrainska Pravda . Sources of the publication said that “along with active preparations for the possible signing of an association agreement with the EU, Viktor Yanukovych is already studying analytics in case of failure of the Vilnius summit.” such accusations The presidential administration, as further stated, planned in advance to shift the blame for the failure of European integration onto the Ukrainian opposition (in fact, the authorities are already making ).

The implementation of this scenario, according to the publication, depended on further meetings between Yanukovych and Putin, at which the Ukrainian side could expect some lucrative offers. The presidents have met several times over the past weeks, with the most recent meeting, on November 9, amid conflicting media reports (some sources said it never happened). According to RBC-Ukraine , it took place at a certain military base in Russia, while the presidents discussed issues of trade and economic cooperation.

According to Ukrainian political scientist Andrei Zolotarev, citing “persistent rumors in political circles,” at the last meeting Yanukovych “tried to sell Putin not signing an association with the EU.” According to another version, also discussed in the media, the Ukrainian president succumbed to pressure from Russia. Opposition deputy Alexander Briginets believes that even a certain folder from the KGB archives, which was threatened against Yanukovych, was used.

In the current situation around Ukraine’s foreign policy, according to political strategist Semyon Uralov, the “agony of situational multi-vectorism” has manifested itself, which the republic has followed since the presidency of Leonid Kuchma. “They are sending a message to Brussels: “Give me money to compensate for losses from the closure of Eurasian markets,” the expert says . “They will ask Russia for a special status for Ukrainian producers and deferments in payments under the pretext: “You see, we abandoned the European association.” Such a policy, he notes, is aimed at deception and blackmail and, by and large, does not suit either Moscow or Brussels. “Sooner or later, this two-faced position will come to an end,” agrees political strategist Konstantin Dolgov, “you cannot deceive your wife and mistress at the same time for as long as you like, the truth will still come out.”

Everything is so contradictory