Ukrainian turn

Thunder struck on November 21: official Kyiv unexpectedly interrupted preparations for the signing of an association agreement with the EU

Student rally in Lviv for the Association from the EU November 22, 2013
On the same day, the 21st, President Viktor Yanukovych, in a telephone conversation with the Lithuanian colleague Dalya Grybauskaite, as they say, explained the demarche with too strong pressure from Russia: Moscow de began to close his market for Ukrainian exports. And he immediately clarified: the course on European integration will continue. But the ex-president of Poland Alexander Kvasnevsky, who visited Ukraine 27 times as part of the EU mission for the preparation of the agreement, and some other VIPs made it hard to understand Kyiv: if the “Eastern Partnership” summit in Vilnius of the 28th will not sign anything, it will be very difficult to restore the negotiation process.

Nevertheless, is it too early to put an end to the European integration plans of Kyiv?

Everything has a beginning and has an end. And it’s bad when they change places. But this is precisely what happened in the course of a protracted negotiation marathon Kyiv - Brussels. A few days before the signing of the agreement, Kyiv suddenly remembered the most pragmatic component of the negotiation process - about money. Roughly speaking, he began to calculate the benefits and possible losses in financial equivalent. That is, why, in fact, negotiations should have started!

The other day, the Financial Times published an article by the Ambassador of Ukraine under the EU Konstantin Eliseev. The diplomat, who clearly received good from the very top, speaks in direct text to European officials: gentlemen are good, do not teach us to live, but better help financially. The list of Kyiv’s requirements for Brussels is spent: “Supporting the resumption of cooperation between Ukraine and the IMF; provision of financial assistance; access to European markets of Ukrainian products that meet the EU standards; Europeans financing further reforms in accordance with the Association Agreement (the same tens of billions necessary for the transfer of technical regions of Ukrainian products into compliance with the EU standards. - A.B.); attracting financial resources to modernize the Ukrainian gas transmission system and prevent the implementation of the Russian South Stream project; Promotion in solving the problem of obsolete anti -dumping measures against Ukrainian exports, which has not moved from the end of the 20th century. ”

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Yanukovych wants to remain an independent player and be able to “get to a bunch” in the west and in the east

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After Eliseeva, in fact, these same requirements were voiced by the full -time “speaking parrot” of the Party of Regions Mikhail Chechetov: “The solution of any issue has a price. Why did Poland be able to successfully integrate into the EU economy? Because tens of billions of dollars of debts from it were written off and at the same time - tens of billions of dollars were gained into its economy. The price of our successful European integration has already been called $ 160 billion. And we are promised “whole” € 800 million. ”

For Yanukovych, European loans are confidence in prolonging the regime of his authority for the next five -year term. For Ukrainian business, the confidence that the practical implementation of the provisions of the Association with the EU will not turn into a disaster for him, and the balance of acquisitions and losses will be at least zero. Therefore, a clear signal was sent to Brussels: if in the near future the EU does not reinforce its words about Ukraine’s support with real content in crispy euro, then Kyiv freezes - and does not stop! - The negotiation process.

It is clear that the EU will not give money directly. This, in the understanding of Kyiv, should make the IMF, and Brussels should take on the role of the guarantor of the resumption of the lending process. Then Ukrainian credit ratings will immediately jump up.

In essence, the position of the “collective Yanukovych” is absolutely justified: the association with the EU without money, without loans and investments in the economy, without modernizing the GTS, without a visa -free regime for Ukrainians, and finally, without the real access of our goods in European markets, an empty piece of paper.

Yanukovych’s problem is different: both in the West and in the East he is forced to accept the rules of the game, they want to put on their uniforms. He wants to remain an independent player and “succeed” both there and there. Europeans are ready to accept Ukrainian tactics of sitting on two chairs. But Moscow raises the question differently: either come to us and accept our rules, or go by the forest.

And now the question, in fact, is as follows: is the Kremlin ready to abandon the pressure tactics, moderate their appetites and go to economic concessions to Kyiv without setting the conditions for joining the Customs Union (TS)? If so, then it is quite possible to sign an agreement on the Association of Ukraine with the TS without joining it. And this will instantly discharge the situation.

In the meantime, it is important to understand another: the European chess party of the Ukrainian president is far from over.

Photo: Pavel Palamarchuk/RIA Novosti