You can't breathe in front of a bomb

On November 24, an agreement was reached between Iran and the "six" mediators* on the Iranian nuclear program in Geneva. Western leaders called the document "historic", Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - "very bad". Who is right?

The world has now become "a much more dangerous place," Netanyahu said. And I tend to agree with him.

So, Iran promised to stop uranium enrichment, destroy half of the stocks of uranium already enriched to 20% (these stocks are estimated at 200 kg) and allow IAEA inspectors to enter their nuclear facilities. In exchange, the United States eases economic sanctions against the Ayatollah regime (about 8 billion Iranian money has already been unfrozen in America).

The time for Tehran's rapprochement with the West was chosen for a reason, although the process itself did not begin yesterday. The first major signal from Tehran came in June's presidential election, in which Iran's top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, allowed "reformer" Hassan Rouhani to win. He was faced with the task of implementing a new Iranian strategy, which the ayatollah called "heroic compliance."

The meaning of the strategy is simple: without curtailing the Iranian nuclear program, to achieve maximum relief of international sanctions. The main reason is that the Iranian economy is in a catastrophic state: in 2012 - negative growth by 5.4%, inflation - 40%, and unemployment among the active population exceeded 25%. There was nothing like it before. Despite the fact that all official statistics are classified as "secret", even Finance Minister Ali Tayebnia was forced to publicly declare that "the country will face a tsunami of 8.5 million unemployed in the coming months." Added to this is a halving of Iranian oil exports, a 300 percent devaluation of the Iranian real and $600 billion that has flowed out of the country over the past eight years.

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There is no guarantee that Tehran will not use the six months allotted to it to achieve its main goal.

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Of course, no one trusts Iran anymore. The West remembers well how in 2002, when it was Rouhani, the current president, who headed the Supreme National Security Council and successfully negotiated the Iranian nuclear program, information about the widest research in the field of the atom that Tehran hid from the IAEA leaked to the press. It was then that it became known about the uranium enrichment station in Natanz, the underground plant in Fordow, and the tests at the military base in Parchin. The Iranian regime has never stopped lying to everyone, signing a variety of agreements and not observing a single one - it is for this reason that the UN Security Council decided to establish a six-month trial period for Tehran under the Geneva agreements to fulfill all agreements.

But this is no reason to applaud Geneva. The disadvantage of the latest agreements is that they do not provide for the elimination of 19,000 nuclear centrifuges. But with their help, Iran can easily recover that very half of 200 kg of uranium enriched up to 20%. So there is no guarantee that Tehran will not use the six months allotted to it in order to take advantage of the easing of sanctions and then announce the achievement of its main goal - the status of a nuclear power.