A game with an unclear result

Refusal of European integration may become a fatal mistake for Viktor Yanukovych

Ukraine is seething. The Kyiv District Court banned protest shares in the main squares and near the central authorities - until the end of the New Year holidays. But they do not intend to give up dissatisfied with the rejection of European integration: preparations for new mass rallies are underway

Participants in the action in support of European integration of Ukraine on Mikhailovskaya Square in Kyiv on November 30, 2013

One of the conclusions of the hot “European autumn” in Ukraine: Viktor Yanukovych was lucky. Not before every politician who ruled this country was such a geopolitical, large -scale choice. Not everyone history prepared such a paradoxical role. Yanukovych, whose shoulders for three years of the presidency: the main political competitor, who has grown throughout the country, a personal oligarchic clan, a fantastic anti -rating - has become a hero of European and world politics. Or - anti -Heroy.

"The course has not changed"

In Vilnius they were waiting for him. Having arrived at the summit, Yanukovych smiled at every public appearance. A slight smile, combined with the slow, angular manner of the Ukrainian president, created a feeling of complete self-confidence and some even sarcastic view of what was happening. The president looked calm, indifferent ...

Europeans, on the contrary, were nervous. The day before the Summit, even a few hours before it, there were still optimists who believed: Yanukovych would sign an association agreement (SA). This expectation was supported by Ukrainian politicians - members of the Presidential team.

“We are going to Europe”, “The course has not changed” - such phrases sounded as the main Ukrainian mantra of the Eastern Partnership summit. Who just did not repeat it and in what forms. And the Europeans listened, nodded and waited for Yanukovych’s decision. But the Ukrainian leader knows how to pause - he proved it.

One with a translator ...

Having reached the very last moment, Yanukovych achieved that the theme of Yulia Tymoshenko, for example, left the summit from the main agenda. Yes, the daughter of the prisoner arrived in Vilnius, associates and single -party people arrived. But there was no such severe exactingness - either the freedom of Tymoshenko, or nothing - in Vilnius was gone.

Yanukovych and his team transferred the conversation to the plane of money. Big money. The ministers of the Ukrainian cabinet, experts close to the party, agreed to 160 billion to Euro, which, supposedly, is necessary for Ukraine as compensation for losses from signing the CA. Europeans have not recovered from such amounts. Even in public speeches, European politicians criticized such a completely undisguised bargain. But this Yanukovych did not bother. At the summit itself, which took place for only a few hours in the building of the Vilnius Exhibition Center, the Ukrainian leader was alone. He went everywhere with the translator (the only one of all participants in the summit), sat mainly in the society of Belarusian colleagues, no longer spoke to any of the leading politicians of the West. And after the final meeting in closed mode, he generally decided not to comment on anything, he canceled the press conference and quickly flew to Kyiv.

"The pressure does not excuse"

Europeans had to explain to Ukraine. Despite their return mantra about the “open doors”, “the agreement lying on the table in front of Ukraine” and the report on the successful summit, the feeling of failure was. The Lithuanian President Dalya Grybauskaite did not even try to hide her irritation. She, perhaps, spoke most sharply these days about the Ukrainian leadership, which wrote off everything to external pressure. “The pressure does not excuse,” said Gribauskaite. By the way, they openly spoke about pressure after the press service of the Lithuanian president released the record of the closed meeting, which gathered the summit participants at once at Vilnius on this short record-several minutes of Viktor Yanukovych’s conversation with Angel Merkel.

“We were waiting for more,” says a German chancellor with a glass of white wine in his hands.

“I want you to hear me. For three and a half years, I was one on one in very unequal conditions with very strong Russia, ”answered Yanukovych.

So Russia appeared at the summit.

Later, when Yanukovych had already left, the chairman of the European Commission, Jose, Manuel Barrosa, who played at the summit, again returned to the Russian factor. The Association Agreement with the EU is not an agreement against someone. The surname of this “someone” at the summit was only pronounced by journalists.

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According to one of the consultants of the Yanukovych administration, the decision to refuse to sign it was actually made in early October

"What did the neighbors press on Yanukovych? There are several versions on this score. One of them is money. The subject of the Ukrainian president’s bargaining is, without which the country will not be able to reach until 2015, when the next election of the head of state will be held in the country. In what form does Yanukovych plans to receive money from Russia: new contracts for gas, loans, gratuitous closed tranches - all this is still unclear, but the fact of many hours Negotiations with Putin exist.

In public space, the Ukrainian authorities also explain its sharp turn from west to east with finances. Formally, the process of signing suspended the government, industrialists and entrepreneurs, who, from signing an agreement with the EU, were addressed by the president - losses and expenses. But all this seems to be more likely to propagate.

The east has nothing to do with

Not a single Ukrainian oligarch from the east has opposed European integration.

Moreover, the media assets of large "oriental" figures of the Ukrainian business of the information warfare did not conduct against Europe, although they could. The loyalty of the oriental business groups on the CA exchange rate was such that even in the areas of traditionally pro-Russian, the number of supporters of European integration of the country increased significantly.

The gap between those who want to live as in Russia and since in Europe has never been so small in the latest history of Ukraine. But Yanukovych changed his mind.

In the variety of explanations, the change in the foreign policy mood of the President of Ukraine is the most logical. The most important goal of the current president is the second term. Only the preservation of the position will retain the political future of Yanukovych himself and save his assets. According to one of the consultants of the Yanukovych administration, the decision to refuse to sign was actually made in early October. It turns out that for almost two months the Ukrainian president successfully drove Europe and all sympathizers in a circle, realizing that he would not sign anything. If so, then this game Yanukovych was a success. But what awaits him in the end? Did he play in European integration?

Personal resentment

Thinking about this is brought by a thousands of many thousands, which is already taking place in Kyiv for a day. Euromaidan is young, smart, bright people, many of whom I can easily imagine on Bolotnaya and Sakharov. The Ukrainians perceived the speculative, political issue of European integration very personally. Therefore, non -painting is a resentment for many personal. The most emotional and honest in this resentment are Ukrainian students. The self -organization of students is amazing these days. No coordination council, no political calls from parties. They gathered and went out. All of them under 25 years old.

And they went to the Maidan not because of politics and not for the sake of opposition leaders.

The amazing scene was on Khreshchatyk on one of the protest days. A crowd of students who met with a group of opposition leaders (including the absolute idol for many - Klitschko), simply bypassed politicians, boys and girls walked past them, as if not noticing.

What to do with these people, where to direct them - neither power nor the opposition knows. The new generation, which so easily goes to the streets and so sincerely protests - in 2015 it can become an important political factor. Do not understand this for Viktor Yanukovych is a fatal mistake, as if he did not console himself with playing a big game in Vilnius and came out of it the winner.

His unfulfilled promises in relation to Europe were superimposed on other, generously distributed to Ukrainians. The resonance from collective indignation with social problems, political cooling, censorship with the stolen hope of millions - can lead to any consequences. From which retirement is not the worst option.

Photo: Andrey Stenin/RIA-News