Mayor: Stagnation will be, but without great economic shocks

Stagnation of domestic demand, including consumer , has become a fact that new growth sources are not obvious, but the old ones are enough for a year to further reduce activity in the economy without great economic upheaval.

These are some conclusions of the “main parameters of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation”, which the Ministry of Economy traditionally publishes in December. 2013 was no exception: the department of Alexei Ulyukaev on December 27 changed the current forecast and a number of forecast numbers for 2014.

Kommersant gives excerpts from the document: in 2013, foreign investors brought out of funds focused on Russia, how many have never been withdrawn - almost 3.2 billion dollars. But the Russian market unexpectedly attracted local players - a clean influx to open share investment funds exceeded 6.2 billion rubles, or $ 190 million.

The preliminary assessment of GDP dynamics according to the results of 2013 is 1.4%, but from the figures of the Ministry of Economy it follows that in the last month of 2013, a long -expected improvement in indicators occurred: investments over the year increased by 0.2% (November statistics suggested their decrease), industrial production in December 2013, based on symbolic 0.1%, at least did not fall.

Agriculture did not live up to the expectations of the Ministry of Economy (according to the results of the year, the issue in it grew by 6.2% against the expected 7%) and unexpectedly retail trade (annual turnover increase in it, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 3.8% against the plans of the latest version of the forecast - 4.2%).

The economic department believes that at the end of 2013, imports in the Russian Federation decreased by 1.2% (previously expected an increase of 1.2%), export increased significantly more planned - 1.6% versus 0.2%. The increase in oil production and a slight decrease in the volume of its export is recorded.

The balance of the trade balance in comparison with the forecast was higher than the planned $ 6 billion, as a result, pure export grew, and this effect was enhanced by an unexpected failure in imports, and the importers, apparently, reduced the purchases of consumer goods abroad.

However, the real disposable incomes of the population, according to the Ministry of Economy, increased by 3.9% - this is higher than the previously planned growth by 3.4%.

Forecasts for 2014 by the Ministry of Economy are mostly worsened. According to the departments of the department, GDP in 2014 will grow by 2.5% (instead of previously planned 3%). Pure GDP exports in 2014, according to these calculations, will not increase, as in 2013, will not. At the same time, the assessment of the balance of payment balance is slightly worsened: no matter how the process of "deofshorization" of the economy is going on, and the negative balance of trading services will increase.

At the same time, the Ministry of Economics still expects a decrease in the real effective ruble of 1.5%in 2014, production growth of 2.2%, annual inflation of 4.8%.

2013 was more favorable for budget revenues than the government expected. According to its results, the deficit of the treasury will be 0.5-0.6% of GDP, said the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, while 0.8% was initially planned. It will even be possible to replenish the reserve fund, although in the fall the Ministry of Finance did not exclude that from there it would be necessary to take 200 billion rubles.