Economics experts in 2014: the Novosibirsk region will be better than other regions

In 2013, negative trends were outlined in the Russian economy, and federal analysts increasingly began to talk about the new wave of crisis. What to expect in 2014, Taiga.info asked Novosibirsk experts. Obviously, there will be no improvements, but the situation may not be so catastrophic.

Leading researcher at the Institute of Economics and Organization of Industrial Production SB RAS, professor of NSU Vladimir Khastorin:

It seems to me that next year there will be a continuation of the trends of 2013, respectively, this means very slow growth, or just close to zero, maybe 1% - I mean real pace. Inflation will slow down a little - about 5.5%. The risks for the banking system will be, of course. Most likely, they will increase in the second half of the year due to slow economic growth and income growth or their absence. As before, the economy will greatly depend on the foreign economic conjuncture, which will create additional nervousness.

Most likely, difficulties with employment will increase. Companies will be faced with the need to reduce costs. They cannot do anything against taxes. Utility payments and payments for the supply of goods and services are for most uncontrollable factors. It remains - wages and, possibly, some decrease in the quality of products.

The banking system will intensify the risks of non -return of loans, including regional budgets

I think that in the Novosibirsk Region they will turn off, or move out for a later date, or the projects that go at the expense of the budget, especially the federal one. Problems with budgets will grow, the government does not hide it. We will have a budget deficit, these figures are published on the website of the Ministry of Finance. Regional and municipal budgets are becoming more and more scarce. By the way, for the banking system this is another additional threat, because they lend municipal and regional budgets. If these debts grow, the risk of non -return will increase. Projects implemented at the expense of the largest corporations will be revised. In the Novosibirsk region of large investment projects through Gazprom or other [corporations] in comparison with other regions of Siberia, there are very few. Well, at the expense of the population and small businesses, it will remain at the same level.

Small business has and will have problems, but he knows how to leave one sphere to another, he is much less capital -intensive. They will mainly worry about the problems of rent and utilities - how tariffs will grow. In general, a small business is a flexible thing. Of course, someone will close, someone will reorient, new ones will appear.

Director of RID Analytics Elena Ermolaeva:

The IMF promised us 3% growth in the next year, based on the current situation, may be less. The main problem of the economy is that old growth drivers are exhausted. Even at high oil prices, the economic situation in Russia is very problematic. No new trends are visible yet, so the forecast for 2014 is stagnation. This is better than a crisis, but in general, this is the time when hidden unemployment is growing, and the incomes of the population are gradually decreasing due to high inflation. All prolonged demands may suffer - real estate, cars.

In 2013, a drop in prices began in the residential real estate market in 2013, in 2014 the trend will last

We have for quite a long time real estate prices grew - in

2011-2012

-Now in 2013 we see that all this is inhibited, for some time the same state will last in 2014. For residential real estate, especially in the primary market, a drop in prices has already begun: the first months of 2013 prices rose, and then they began to decline. The entire height, which was at the beginning of the year, was then leveled. In the primary housing market in November, by December 2012, there was 2.2% of the increase. Add inflation, and you will understand that in real calculation, prices are already decreasing.

With commercial real estate, everything is different-the consequences of the crisis have been overcome for quite a while. Now is a more or less even situation. First of all, retailers may suffer, those who rent top premises in the city center at the highest rates. They can begin to free up the area, they will have to look for new tenants, perhaps there will be a small correction of bets. According to the offices, the situation is stable - new objects are introduced, the occupancy is now high.

In Novosibirsk, in the housing market, construction volumes are constantly growing, and once a saturation point will be achieved. Perhaps this is what this will happen. As for the volume of construction of business centers, they have already decreased. And there are a number of long-line objects that must be handed over in 2014. When they are handed over, the construction tank for business centers will decrease, since there are few new facilities.

DSO Consulting Managing Partner Sergey Dyachkov:

I would evaluate the investment policy of the Novosibirsk region as quite adequate, there are comments, there are no complaints. This means that in the conditions of the economic crisis, which, of course, will develop in Russia in the form of smooth sliding down, stagnation, some call it stability, in the Novosibirsk region the situation in almost all areas of the economy will be better than in the country. Say, today industrial production in Russia is gradually declining, and in the Novosibirsk region is growing.

True, there is subtlety that in Russia, so far the real disposable incomes of the population are growing, and in the Novosibirsk region it is already stagnant - plus 0.8% per annum in 11 months. Nevertheless, in the industrial sphere we will be better than in Russia as a whole, because the structure of the economy is diversified-we have an extremely small share of the mining sector-and, secondly, thanks to an adequate investment policy.

The situation in the industrial sphere in the Novosibirsk region will be better than in other regions

I think that in 2014 the gradual introduction of factories will begin, including in the PLP, otherwise, why, in fact, it was to start. I have very good expectations in terms of implementing business projects, primarily in production. As for commercial real estate, it will probably be introduced less than in 2013, I admit that the consumption of rental of trade and business centers will begin to decline. There are questions for large shopping centers, such as the Gallery Novosibirsk, I am not very believed that it will be introduced in 2014 (

Representatives of TPS-Real Estate

They promised

To pass the shopping center "Gallery Novosibirsk" in the fourth quarter - approx. Taigi.info

).

In consumer goods, everyday demand, I think, there will be practically no subsidence. Here, consumption volumes will remain approximately at the level of 2013. As for prolonged goods, the decline in the housing sales market has already begun, the decline in sales of new cars is already at the level of minus

6-8%

An annual, I think, consumption in both commodity groups will continue to fall at least until the fall of 2014, so that from the end of the year to start growing in the light of smooth restoration of the economy. Household appliances and clothing - these groups are also predisposed to a decline in consumption, because real incomes of the population are not growing, the population of Zaksa is not growing, and in the conditions of economic stagnation it loses incentives to expand consumption.

Prepared by Yana Dolganin and Yaroslav Vlasov