In Russia, the economy is either very good or hopelessly bad - this conclusion can be drawn from the speeches of experts at the Gaidar Forum, which takes place in Moscow in mid-January 2014. While some experts argue that Russia is coping with the crisis much better than other countries, others note that previous ideas for growth have been exhausted and there are no new ones. Thus, in the coming decades, Russia may repeat the fate of Argentina: at the beginning of the 20th century, it was one of the largest economies in the world, but gradually lost its influence and is now perceived only as one of the regional leaders.

On the first day of the Gaidar Forum, January 15, the most interesting discussions took place: economists argued about ways out of the crisis (both for Russia and for the whole world) and about what the economy will be like in a decade and a half, by 2030. Surprisingly, ideas about this, as well as about Russia’s place in global GDP, turned out to be almost diametrically opposed.

Everything is fine

The main optimist at the forum was the Secretary General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, “club of rich countries”) Angel Gurría. He believes that compared to other countries, Russia has not suffered as much from the crisis, and a sharp slowdown in economic growth (from 3.4 percent in 2012 to approximately 1.3 percent in 2013) is observed not only in Russia, but also in Russia. but also in other developing countries - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Africa.

“Russia is still developing,” Gurria said, addressing Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (it is clear from the video that the prime minister was pleased with this message). The head of the OECD, however, later admitted that Russia, like other countries, will have to seriously prepare for new challenges in the global market that will inevitably arise in the post-crisis world - with growing demand, competition in it will greatly intensify.

Angel Gurria

Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, was perhaps more optimistic. In Russia, he is known primarily for his participation in “shock therapy” for several countries (in 1991-1994, Sachs led a group of economic advisers to Boris Yeltsin). According to him, quoted by Finmarket, in Russia there is “no crisis at all.”

The economist explained that on most macroeconomic indicators—the state of the budget, the poverty rate, unemployment—Russia looks better than the United States, and local per capita income at purchasing power parity is twice that of China. Sachs turned even the gradual aging of the population and the decline in the number of Russians into an advantage for the country: according to him, too rapid population growth has a bad effect on the economy. In Russia, the expert noted, there will be no chronic employment crisis; By developing several sectors of the economy that have suffered from the global recession (information technology, space, aviation, railways, and so on), the country can become one of the world's economic leaders.

It is clear that such forecasts could not help but please Dmitry Medvedev, who eventually said that after such speeches “you are charged with optimism.” At this point, the prime minister left the forum - and just in time, since it was the turn of skeptical pessimists.

Everything is bad

at the beginning of 2013 at the Davos Economic Forum One of the gloomiest forecasts about Russia's development was made by a trio of economists - former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, then head of the NES Sergei Guriev and Oleg Tsyvinsky from Yale. They themselves, however, prefer not to call their predictions pessimistic , but their essence does not change much: according to economists, if reforms are not carried out, Russia may face instability even with high oil prices.

The speech of Guriev, Tsyvinsky and Kudrin in Davos seemed to open some invisible curtain, and bleak forecasts rained down on the market one after another. The most memorable of them was the document of the Ministry of Economic Development, which admitted : until 2030, Russia will lag behind the world in terms of economic growth.

It was about forecasts until 2030 that participants in one of the panel discussions at the Gaidar Forum spoke about; there was no shortage of pessimists there. As Yulia Tseplyaeva, director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research at Sberbank, explained, economists are reluctant to make forecasts that differ greatly from the consensus, and long-term predictions are often influenced by growth rates over the past year - experts are too afraid to “stand out” from the rest. “[In 2013] consensus forecasts deteriorated at a rate of half a percentage point per quarter,” the expert stated.

Alexey Vedev from the Center for Structural Research at the Gaidar Institute of Economic Policy also drew attention to the quality of forecasting. He took figures from the government's first long-term forecast, released in 2008, and compared them with what is happening now. Economists then believed that the economy would grow by an average of six percent per year, and oil would cost about $60 a barrel. In reality, the opposite happened: growth rates slowed down significantly, and oil prices rose above $100 per barrel.

Evsey Gurvich

According to Vedev, if we take the new forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development and exclude from it the effect of expanding external demand, the figures until 2030 will turn out to be even more pessimistic than officials assume. If the government stimulates the economy with low interest rates on loans, low inflation and the establishment of transparent rules of the game, then, on the contrary, the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development will seem too gloomy.

A slide from the 2008 forecast was also shown by Evsey Gurvich, head of the Economic Expert Group. Five years ago, economists assumed that the dollar would cost 29-30 rubles, and not 33.5, as it is now. In general, according to Gurvich, the limit for economic growth without reforms is 2.2 percent per year, and the five percent that Dmitry Medvedev has set as a goal looks like a dream not supported by reality.

Gurvich especially noted the uncompetitiveness of the oil and gas sector, which used to be a driver of economic growth, but is now becoming a brake. The expert also touched upon the increase in geopolitical expenses in a situation where Russia’s share in the global economy is falling. “It’s like having secondary sexual characteristics without having primary ones,” Gurvich said. It was he who reminded the forum participants about the fate of Argentina, which now ranks in the third ten in the global ranking in terms of GDP.

Slide from the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development until 2020, published in 2008

Dmitry Belousov from the Center for Economic Analysis spoke out even harsher. According to him, Russia urgently needs to look for its place in the world, because two niches that the country considered “its own” are under threat. According to Belousov, Russia previously believed that it would be able to supply the world market with relatively cheap raw materials and industrial goods with a quality higher than that of China, but worse than that of Germany. Due to the fact that Europe is moving towards energy efficiency and sponsoring alternative energy, the first niche is under threat. From the second, Russia began to be squeezed out by China, which had finally achieved a qualitative breakthrough in production, and Eastern European states - with the support of the EU.

The expert also drew attention to the fact that large countries, even those with a trade deficit in relations with China, have one or two non-resource sectors in which exports exceed imports. Russia does not have such industries. In addition, after the crisis, such an indicator as the cost of a kilogram of cargo from the Russian Federation has decreased. This may mean that Russian goods are simply “degrading.”

If we sum up all the opinions of pessimistic experts, it turns out that even those advantages of Russia that Gurria and Sachs spoke about will not allow the country to grow by four to five percent per year without reforms (not to mention the seven to eight percent that was in the middle zero). And yet, in the words of economists, there is also reason for optimism: not one of them spoke about a slowdown in economic growth, or that Russia will soon face a recession, similar to that which occurred in many European countries over the past year. Apparently, this scenario, given stable oil prices, seems incredible to economists.

Maybe this way, maybe that way