"Putin to marry Sobchak"?

Political scientist Vladimir Gelman invited Vladimir Putin to make Ksenia Sobchak his successor, thus solving the problem of the upcoming conflict of "fathers and children"

The moderator of the political discussion at the Gaidar Forum, the head of the Perspective Foundation Leonid Gozman pre-interviewed participants in the conversation and found out that in the 1st place among the most important events in 2013, experts put the Euromaidan in Ukraine, then there are Russian New Year's amnesties and pardon, and then the terrorist attacks in Volgograd, riots in Biryulev and Biryulev and Biryulev and Biryulev. "Elections" of the mayor of Moscow.

Leonid Gozman said: most forecasters believe that the most significant event in 2014 will be political processes related to Ukraine.

- Today, the Ukrainian economy is in terrible state, and during the Orange Revolution, there was a boom - a GDP growth of 12%. (Now less than 1%.) But, despite the crisis, probably in the near future no one will win in the struggle of President Yanukovych and Maidan. There is no revolution and will not be, ”suggests the Swedish scientist, a researcher at the Institute of International Economics, who worked in Kiev , Anders Awrand . - The more repressively the government will act, the more the opposition will intensify in the presidential election. The main problem of Yanukovych: they tell him that it is necessary to share power. And he does not share it either with the oligarchs or the regions. It is more and more left alone and can lose the elections in the future, ”Jerves Anders Avyndund.

- "Euromaidan" is important for Russia as a training ground, where the relations of society and the authorities are running around. The adoption of repressive laws in Ukraine shows that there is a civilizational demarcation that will involve both Russian and American society, ”emphasizes the analyst of the Carnegie Foundation Lilia Shevtsova . -One of the most important results of the last year for Russia was that events that specified the country's political movement for 3-4 years ahead. The authorities issued its philosophy of life in the coming years in the form of a foreign policy doctrine. It justifies Russia as a state-civation state, the task of which is the deterrence of the West.

The Eurasian Galaxy from the post -Soviet dependent states is being created, including the Kremlin sees Ukraine. The USSR did not claim to be a regulator of moral foundations. And now there are also claims of Putin’s Russia to protect traditional Christian values around the world, ”emphasizes Lilia Shevtsova.

- The model that Putin offers the West is effective. She is in many ways in demand. Russia's assistance in external affairs and complete non -interference in its internal affairs. And in the other direction, the movement is mutual, ”said Nikolai Petrov, professor of the Higher School of Higher Professor.

How will the political system change? None of the experts expect liberalization, no one is waiting for collapse. What are they waiting for?

- Most believe that the system will become more authoritarian. The explosive strengthening of authoritarianism is not expected. Last year’s policy will continue: the liberals will be suspended, but they will not hang it, ”Leonid Gozman reassured the public.

- The country's function is found - to be "Nikolaev Russia", a global conservative, a support of fundamentalism. The Putin regime with the help of simple techniques for the second time felt for a certain Modus Vivevedi with society: to scare a little, to retreat a little. This is a positive result for the authorities: to ensure that nothing happens, ”says sociologist Alexei Levinson . - People whine, which becomes worse, harder, but find new ways to earn money and live. There is a lack of reflection: there is a state use of state to arrange themselves. It is impossible to open a business. But you can go to work for a small position in the administration and open a business. People are critical of power, but they would like to see their children in government agencies. They hate visitors and exploit their work. Ideologically unacceptable, but it is used. Now everything has come into a state of balance. This is a sad and shameful condition, ”says Alexey Levinson, an employee of the Levada Center.

The country's function is found - to be "Nikolaev Russia", a global conservative, a support of fundamentalism

-In Russia, the old system does not work both for development and on the status quo. It is difficult to ensure security problems, but the system has an adaptation resource. The problem is that this non -working system is not an alternative yet. Imagine we entered the cockpit. We were convinced that he was not there, and then they realized that there was no airfield to which it could be landed. The challenge of the system is the way to which it responds to the requests of time, and this is an increasing personalization of power, the combination of power and property, new megaprojects, the solution of internal problems due to foreign policy. This is state suicide, ”said political scientist Lilia Shevtsova, who reads that the transition of the system to a new quality will occur after 2016.

The President of the Interma Foundation Georgy Satarov also spoke about the degradation of the state:

- The system does not provide development. We will not stop in this degradation. It is no accident that the current order in Russia is called feudal. Corruption is growing rapidly. We will go further and this is the most dangerous! - the sociologist Georgy Satarov is worried. - In the "Swamp" gases accumulate, and then they explode. So the Great French Revolution happened, ”warns Georgy Satarov.

According to experts, the experts have a consensus in the upcoming elections to the Moscow City Duma in September 2014: attempts by the authorities to maintain control will lead to the expected scandals. The main intrigue: Will the Kremlin opponents be able to share the district? If so, then oppositionists will be able to go to the Duma.

- In general, the actions of the opposition will not be a challenge to the system. The threat to her itself is the system producing the inefficiency of the state, ”Leonid Gozman summarized the opinion of experts.

- We can talk about a negative trend, progressing weakening of political institutions and some positive fluctuations. The political reform of Medvedev was not a step towards the protesting, but by the movement towards the elites. The transition to elections in majority districts is a long process. It is not even important that several deputies from the opposition will pass, but the fact that other people will go to the elections to the polls, not the ones we see now. On the surface, it will be the same “party in power”, but it will behave in fundamentally different, ”said Professor GU-SHE Nikolai Petrov. - There are no real elections of governors. Financial problems are accumulating, the regions climb into debts under the pressure of the center in order to pay for Putinsky populist pre -election promises. When it will be necessary to pay debts, it turns out that there is no money in the budget for this, then the regions will have to give more freedom. The problem is that in 15 years the quality of regional elites fell strongly. And bright strong bandits, characteristic of the 90s who became effective leaders of the regions, did not appear in power. The longer it impede the strengthening of the regions, the harder the results will be. The weakening of power in conditions of weak institutions and elites can turn liberalization into revolutionary changes and even to chaos, ”Professor Nikolai Petrov concludes.

Political scientist Vladimir Gelman believes that there are certain reasons for optimism.

- The post -Soviet generation enters the political arena. For him, Soviet experience is the affairs of the past days. It is focused on replacing its fathers. The conflict of fathers and children will be reproduced now. This was seen during the protests, and in the Navalny campaign in the elections in Moscow. Young people demonstrate a desire for change. The possibilities for her career mobility are limited, and ambitions are growing. In Russia, the 1968 Generation may be reproduced, ”warns the professor of European University Vladimir Gelman. - Interocation conflicts will only increase. This does not mean that we will see youth riots. But no one will cancel these natural calls. How to resolve the conflict? I would invite Vladimir Putin to marry Ksenia Sobchak and make her his successor, ”the St. Petersburg political analyst Vladimir Gelman joked.

The state is trying to impose a very eclectic ideology to the country, the publicist Andrei Kolesnikov spoke about this:

This is a management crisis when the head of state must explain to the deputy prime minister that the Harvest of Soy was killed in the Far East

- All this was predicted by Vladimir Nabokov: the king and the Red Army, moderate nationalism, external enemy, "Orthodox Chekism" and hospitalism, and even elements of the corporate state according to Mussolini. But ideology for the state has service and service value. Obscurant of it is unlikely to be effective from above, it will rest against reality, ”says publicist Andrei Kolesnikov. - The state does not cope with its own tasks. Teams do not go down. Putin said that he would be in two weeks to hold meetings of an expanded government himself, that is, he takes on the functions of the prime minister. This is a crisis of management, when the head of state himself must explain to the deputy prime minister that the Harvest of Soy was killed in the Far East. Hence the attempt to replace the management of ideology in advance, which will be needed when the crisis is increased. The dominant behavior of the population is loyalty. But it also wants to give a voice. If a procedural democracy system will work, people will change the country. And if they are not given this, they will wait for such an opportunity, and it may appear unexpectedly. “Rus' was fading in three days!”, Andrei Kolesnikov reminded the words of Vasily Rozanov.

- There is a feeling, we do not fall. Russia slides into the swamp, and we are already letting bubbles. Stagnation is the most important event of 2013. The system has not yet threatened, it can exist for a long time, threatening us, not itself, ”says political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin . - According to the results of the vote, it is clear that Vladimir Putin is the president of the province. He represents her. Now developed territories are interrupted by the regions. Moscow already needs honest courts, and depressive territories - only subsidies. Now the authorities are trying to lower the advanced territories to the level of backwards. This is a growing break under the earth's crust. But the explosion in the near future is unlikely to wait.

“There will be no revolution until 2018, this is the general opinion of experts - already good news,” Leonid Gozman summed up the results of the discussion.