Syrian question in Montre

Negotiations began in Switzerland to resolve the armed conflict in Syria

The heading of the conflict in Syria by the head of the foreign policy departments of the United States and Russia approved in mid -2012 at a meeting in Geneva. And only now, after a long delay, the parties begin to work on how to specifically implement an agreement of one and a half year ago. The dialogue takes place on the forum, called "Geneva-2", the opening of which took place on January 22 in Montre (Switzerland).

Analyst at the Institute of Study of Middle Eastern Policy David Pollock says that the current forum was preceded by a declaration of general principles of political settlement of the conflict in Syria, which was then developed by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergei Lavrov in June 2012: “Until the very recent time, this declaration of this declaration has not She could have been useful if the parties had to eliminate completely obvious discrepancies in the interpretation of her key positions, but this did not happen.

Assad openly declares that he will re -elect to the post of head of state in the spring of this year. And if the story teaches something, then in this case the fact that he will win by gaining 95 percent of the vote

For example, Washington and the Syrian opposition were sure that the transition government, which was allocated an important place in the document, will not include neither the closest associates of Syria President Bashar al -Assad, nor himself. But neither Moscow nor the Syrian president provide anything in the declaration. On the contrary, Assad openly states that he will re -elect to the post of head of state in the spring of state. And if the story teaches something, then in this case the fact that he will win by gaining 95 percent of the vote, ”says David Pollock .

After unofficial conversations with the American diplomats, David Pollok had the impression that they did not impose great hopes for the upcoming negotiations in Geneva. Which, however, does not exclude the progress on some tactical issues. “This refers to an agreement on the opening of humanitarian corridors to deliver items of first necessity to the population blocked in the regions of the fighting,” says David Polelock . “Not even throughout the country, but only in those regions that do not have direct strategic importance. For example, in Aleppo, where, according to the US State Department, several hundred Chechen fighters are fighting on the side of the United States; In one and two of Damascus, the little chances of the success of Geneva-2 also say that we still do not know who is exactly from the opposition, as a representative of the Syrian people, will participate in this round of negotiations-the USA, the European Union, Saudi Arabia, known as the Syria Friends group , vigorously convinces it General Salim Idris, commander of the Syrian Free Army , as if he was ready to participate and even agree not to insist on the immediate resignation of Assad, if he makes a gesture of good will and, say, will open the humanitarian corridors. Recognition ".

Pollock notes that no one talks about such a group as ISIS - "Islamic state of Iraq and Levant." Her presence in Geneva is undesirable. Some oppositionists are ready to compromise the world with the government only in order to prevent further strengthening of ISIS. Salim Idris vowed to destroy this ally of al-Qaeda, as soon as Assad was overthrown and partisan detachments will pour into the regular Syrian army.

It is more about groups like the "Ang Nusra" , which the State Department still qualifies as a terrorist or "Islamic Front" , with which the "free Syrian army" has complex, but not antagonistic relations. Their participation in the negotiation process is a matter of complex bargaining. If they are not invited to Geneva, but at the same time they will not declare traitors those who go there, then this can also be considered a small, but diplomatic success.

"Returning to the above issue of humanitarian corridors, I want to say that their discovery is a very subtle matter. The problem does not rest over long distances, poor roads, food deficiency or the lack of political will among potential donors. This is a purely problem of the safety of goods and employees of the organizations transporting them. Unfortunately, there are many examples that official power structures in Syria, and The insurgents violated the agreement on a ceasefire in the past, confiscated goods, took hostages of charity organizations, ” Pollock notes.

In the conditions of the escalation of violence, food and medicines become strategic weapons, and the government in Damascus willingly applies it against the population, in which it is not sure of the loyalty

In the context of the escalation of violence, food and medicines become strategic weapons, and the government in Damascus willingly uses it against the population, whose loyalty it is not confident. Tens of thousands of people threaten hunger and illness. Such cruelty cannot but impress Assad’s allies, including Russia.

Pollock believes that Russia, for the sake of further weakening of the influence of the West in the Middle East, can go to some tactical concessions and support, for example, a partial geographically limited truce. But no more: “I am sure that I was a strong impression of the rejection of the United States from the acts of retaliation against Syria in response to the use of chemical weapons, or in fact, if not officially, from the requirement of Assad’s departure as an assessment of peaceful dialogue. Why will Russia include Assad to compromise if the situation on the fronts has clearly changed in its favor? American, European and Turkish diplomas Now they say that the Syrian conflict does not have a military decision, but only for those who seriously want to win. Livania and Iraqi fighting in the ranks of the Syrian Army, that before Washington, Ankara, the European Union, they consider Syria primarily as the Arena and Saudi Arabic Arena, and they are far from being sure that their own geopolitical positions are strengthened by the fall of the Assad regime. The nominal support of secular groups in the resistance movement is associated with risks that the United States, Turkey and the EU do not want to take on when their attention is focused on many important and urgent internal problems, ”the leading employee of the Institute for the Study of Middle Eastern Policy David Pollock said in conclusion.

One of the most intriguing questions of Geneva-2 is related to the possible participation in the work of the Iranian delegation forum. It was as if Russia wants Tehran to join the negotiation process, which Sergei Lavrov once again stated after a recent meeting in Moscow with the Iranian colleague Mohammad Javad Zarif. At the same time, Russia insists that the only basis of negotiations may be the frame agreement "Geneva-1", which Tehran rejects. Zarif, in turn, announced that he would come to Switzerland if he was officially invited.