Is there a way out of the crisis?

Experts - about what Viktor Yanukovych will do

Inna theological, deputy of the Verkhovna Rada:*

*I left the Party of Regions on November 30 after the acceleration of a student demonstration on the Maidan.

Yanukovych is now behaving inadequately. He is afraid of everyone and relies only on absolutely verified people. Only this can explain the appointment to the post of head of the presidential administration Andrei Klyuyev, behind which the entire Pro -Putin team is standing. There should be no illusions: in Ukraine they are trying to realize the Putin script. Purpose: to create tension in the country and agree with the international community that the country will retume the country where the civil war has supposedly began to the zone of influence.

I am familiar with Viktor Yanukovych personally and I know that he is able to make adequate decisions-this happened in 2004 and in 2007. He is able to realize that events take too dangerous turning, and stop. But this is possible only if there is pressure from society. And it is now intensifying, and not only on the Maidan. In the regions, people take power in their own hands, in the Rada we observe the process of collapse of the fraction of the Party of Regions - many begin to get out of it, some refused to take part in an extraordinary parliamentary session, which will try to introduce an emergency in the country. If this continues, Yanukovych will lose support in parliament. The ideal option in this case is the formation of a new majority in the Rada, a return to the 2004 Constitution and the Parliamentary President Republic, the election of the technical government, the resignation of all security forces with the punishment of the perpetrators, the dissolution of the Berry, the liberation of political prisoners.

It is clear that there will be some period of dual power, Yanukovych may want to play in such a situation in the power option. But in this case, he is waiting for either the fate of Chausko or the Hague Tribunal.

Gleb Pavlovsky, political strategist, in 2004 - consultant to the election headquarters of Viktor Yanukovych

Both Yanukovych and opposition leaders have lost control of the general situation. Many come from our assumptions - purely Russian - that the situation, they say, are determined by the president. In fact, this is not so. In general, in Kyiv it was always wrong, but now even more so. The President can worsen the situation by one or another of his actions. Probably, it can improve it a little. But he cannot radically change it.

In Ukraine, there is a destruction of all familiar institutions - public and political, in any case, in the capital. This is a colossal crisis. And it is not clear who will come out of him alive. Management is lost. The leaders of the opposition live in the world of Ukrainian romance, come up with lyrical appeals, instead of inviting people to some ways out (from the crisis). Klitschko behaves more or less correctly, but the lack of political experience in him is affected.

The president, on the one hand, decided one of the tasks - consolidated around himself his former electorate, which was partially lost to him last year. But - at the cost of what Kyiv restored against himself. The Gopniks from the East, which break cars and, even worse, attack people, are typing in the capital - the behavior (authorities) incredible for Ukraine is not used to it. And even more so - the abductions of people (even though they are found). Torture, beating, such a Latin American situation - all this is shocking Kyiv. It is unknown to me that from this it was made by order, and that-the excess of some people in the president’s team, but the situation was blown up. Yanukovych now, apparently, is also at a loss. There are no intermediaries, it is not clear what to agree on, the radicals on both sides become uncontrollable.

The intensity of hatred that we observe in Kyiv is characteristic more likely for the civil war. At least this will lead to the fact that any future of the Ukrainian government will be more authoritarian than now.

Alexey Bluminov, political scientist (Kyiv)

Yanukovych now really does not know what to do next. Most Ukrainians, even those who did not go to the square, passively support protest. This can be seen with the naked eye. Even in the east of the country, the majority of the population with power is dissatisfied, though they do not support the opposition there. Then there will be an escalation of the conflict. The opposition loses the support of the Maidan. The regions are seized by local administrations, iconic resignations of officials are taking place. It is hardly possible to suppress the protest by the power out way: even if Grushevsky is cleaned, people from here will run to the Maidan, and there are already erected fortifications, barricades. The besieged can fight off there for several days in a row, full -scale street battles are possible. The situation is patho: no one controls the Maidan, but it is also impossible to suppress it now.

On the other hand, if you leave everything as it is, in a few days the seizures of administrative buildings will begin everywhere. In the southeast, deputies can still gather and seek help from Putin. But this automatically removes Yanukovych from the agenda. He becomes no one.

In fact, the country has two warring parties: the Maidan with the supporting part of Ukraine and the southeastern bureaucratic front. There is no Yanukovych. A large business also puts on Vernyak, so in the future, Yanukovych should not count on his support.

Power protests without a political center will quickly roll up to the pogroms, and one way or another will appear, which will take responsibility. We can have it some retired Generals of the SBU, who still have authority in power structures. The situation is hopeless.

Mikhail Pogrebinsky, Director of the Kyiv Center for Political Research and Conflictology

To predict something is almost impossible now. For example, on January 19, when the riots began, the position of the authorities was very strong, and the next day, on the contrary, the situation worsened, since the authorities did not react in any way. Everything is constantly changing.

President Yanukovych began negotiations with the opposition that it was very good in itself, but with these guys - Klitschko, Yatsenyuk and Tyagnibok - it is very difficult to negotiate. Firstly, they do not have a single will, and secondly, each of them wants to play the role of a decisive revolutionary before the rest. And if one shows at least a minimal tendency to compromise, then it immediately turns out that it takes a weak position in front of the others. This Trinity controls only part of the people who gathered on the Maidan. People who attack the police do not listen to anyone at all, but there are not so many of them. Now their power is multiplied by the fact that they feel the support of the "Big Maidan." But the three opposition leaders could put a barrier to these aggressive guys, giving them the opportunity to fight on their own - it is clear that then they could be easily isolated. But since Klitschko, Yatsenyuk and Tyagnibok do not want to do this yet, the authorities can put forward the condition to them: restore radicals, otherwise the negotiation process will not go.

Now they talk about the possible resignation of the government, but in our constitutional system this is not fundamental: if the government leaves, the president will appoint a new one, which will also be devoted to him. Yanukovych has a parliamentary majority that will vote for any list represented by the president. But it seems to me that he is unlikely to go to some decisive changes in the composition of the government, because it will not solve the problem of confrontation. This will be such a small victory of the opposition, after which they will ask for new concessions.