Descending flight

On February 11, the National Bank of Kazakhstan announced the devaluation of the national currency tenge by 20%. Exchange offices and many shops were immediately closed in the country.

Even last year, some Kazakh economists warned that the devaluation in Kazakhstan had already begun, but it was smooth. Few people expected a sharp drop.

According to the official version, the depreciation of the tenge was necessary to support the “Kazakhstan producer”. But in the republic, imports prevail over exports, so that mythical producers work only in the heads of officials. But the big mining companies associated with the political elite remained the beneficiaries of the devaluation. For example, the shares of the largest copper producer Kazakhmys, which is closely affiliated with the ruling elite of Kazakhstan, have risen in price by 30%. Most likely, the same will happen with the shares of other large Kazakh exporters.

But there are also unofficial reasons hushed up by officials. And the main one is the failed economic policy of the state.

Kazakhstan burns its raw material revenues in the furnace of the Potemkin "industrial-innovative development program", which has not removed the country from the raw material needle and has not created competitive commodity producers. The authorities are just as reluctant to talk about the deficit in the country's balance of payments, which in 2013 amounted to over $2 billion, and about the reduction by almost 13% of the National Bank's gold and foreign exchange reserves, which were spent to support the overvalued tenge.

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Mythical manufacturers work only in the heads of officials. But the big mining companies win

”

A separate story is Kashagan, a giant oil and gas field, which was supposed to start producing the first export oil at the end of last year. Due to several accidents, production was suspended. This caused serious concern for the government, which was counting on additional petrodollars. In addition, the international rating agency Fitch linked future production at the Kashagan field with a projected 6% growth in Kazakhstan's GDP in 2014. Now, of course, these data will be reviewed.

But even if Kashagan were to work, devaluation would still be inevitable - there are many other reasons for it. Perhaps it would be smoother, but it would just as well empty the pockets of the Kazakhs.

Interestingly, the devaluation was announced immediately after President Nazarbayev unexpectedly proposed to think about a possible change in the name of Kazakhstan to "Kazakh Eli" (Country of the Kazakhs), which caused a heated discussion within the society. Some experts are sure that the president's idea was impromptu, which should not be taken seriously. Others saw it as an attempt to play on national patriotism, which is becoming more and more popular, given the serious demographic changes. And still others quite reasonably reasoned: did the president, on the eve of such a tangible blow to wallets, not try to cleverly shift public attention in another direction?

One way or another, not only Astana, but also Moscow should, before it's too late, seriously think about what is happening in the Kazakh economy. After all, Russia, which has staked on the Customs Union, has big and serious views on integration projects in Kazakhstan. And here's the problem...