The issue with the rating of Internet companies and online stores, as well as the Forbes special project “Kings of Government Orders” - on sale from February 27

On a wave of pessimism

It seems that pessimism and despondency have become the main mood of businessmen. The government is openly talking about a wave of pessimism, and economists and sociologists are warning about the same. The index of economic sentiment, measured by HSE specialists, fell below the long-term average level for the first time since the crisis of 2009. For the first time during the measurements, Russian entrepreneurs began to assess the future more gloomily than their European colleagues. “The past year was a transitional year - from optimism to pessimism,” concludes Nikolai Kondrashov from the HSE Development Center. “We need—you’ll laugh—to think about how to raise our spirits in the next 5–10 years: when everyone’s mood is dead, we won’t go anywhere,” says economist Evgeny Yasin. Talk about an impending crisis or recession is forcing even the president to react, although for now, in the usual directive style. Vladimir Putin believes that the country does not need to “plunge into hopeless pessimism.” In general, stop the hysteria.

There are indeed many objective reasons for sadness. In December, the World Bank lowered its estimate of Russia's economic growth rate in 2014: the country's GDP will increase 2.2% in the coming year instead of 3.1%, which was predicted in September. Some economists are promising zero growth. In the first month of 2014, the ruble fell by almost 8% against the euro and dollar. Money is leaving the Russian market, as well as from other developing economies.

Any economist (officials in this sense can easily compete with them) will immediately explain why it will not be better. The Russian economy's dependence on raw materials, corruption and affiliation between government and business, low competition and administrative barriers...

Many businessmen are ready to illustrate these truisms with their personal experience. Business costs are rising, corruption is not decreasing, cheap loans are unavailable, but, most importantly, nothing is changing.

It seems to me that it is this last circumstance that plays a key role now.

Economists and entrepreneurs know very well the answers not only to the question of why Russia is not growing, but also to the questions of who is to blame and what to do. Recipes on how to create conditions for competition, the fight against corruption, and the establishment of transparent and equal rules of the game for everyone have already set the teeth on edge. How can we not fall into pessimism?

For example, in our magazine you will find a new rating of state contractors (see page 81), the leaders of which, as expected, were Arkady Rotenberg and Gennady Timchenko, businessmen with enormous political influence. It is unlikely that such a situation will cause a surge of sincere joy in an ordinary businessman who does not have any special connections with the president or a secret service background. And if you study the conditions in which big business is fighting for Gazprom’s orders (see “Captive of Circumstances” on page 104), optimism will disappear for a long time.

But I think I know where to find cause for optimism. He is one of those same ordinary businessmen who, according to a HSE study, are losing confidence in the prospects of the Russian economy. In such, for example, as Dmitry Kostygin or Sergey Fedorinov, who managed to turn Yulmart into one of the leaders of Russian online commerce in just a few years (see page 68). Or in those like Pyotr Kambolin and Alexey Chekhlov, who came up with an original financial product for Wall Street (see page 48).

In fact, gentlemen businessmen, it is pointless to look for a reason for a good mood outside, around us - in the rules of a particular tender, a new government decree or trends in world markets. The reason is nearby. In yourself. And this rule, of course, applies not only to business, but also to life in general.

Read in the latest issue

Leaders of Runet

In February, the fourth ranking of the top 30 Russian Internet according to Forbes magazine was released. This year it is in a new format: 10 online companies plus 20 online stores. The total revenue of the rating participants in 2013 was $8.85. Read who earned the most and what has changed among Internet leaders over the year in the latest issue of Forbes.

Kings of State Order

It’s not easy for contractors now, not like in the years when megaprojects like preparations for the APEC summit and the Olympics in Sochi were being implemented. The downpour of government money turns into regular rain. The total amount of tenders does not change, but their number is growing, and there are fewer and fewer large contracts. But the largest government customers remained afloat. Read how they managed this and who Forbes called the king of government procurement in the latest issue.

Bins of the Motherland

The Federal Agency for State Reserves, or Rosrezerva for short, is one of the most secret and closed government departments in our country. Meanwhile, Rosrezerv is one of the largest government customers. Almost all information about him is classified as state secret information, and businessmen cooperating with the agency are extremely reluctant to talk about it. But Forbes tried to find out how this relationship works.

Trapped by obligations

The status of one of Gazprom’s largest contractors allowed Ziyad Manasir to maintain the first position in the Forbes “Kings of Government Contracts” ranking. But now everything has changed: there are almost no new contracts, and Gazprom is reluctant to pay old bills with its long-time partner. Read what went wrong in the business of Gazprom's favorite Ziyad Manasir and why Ruslan Baysarov became a co-owner of his company in the March issue of Forbes.

The latest issue of Forbes is out