The shadow of the third world

Now they write a lot about the introduction of Russian troops into the Crimea. They write for the whole last week, but yesterday and today - especially. And in the development of events, it is very similar that such an opportunity really exists. The chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs promises to quickly consider the issue of entering Crimea into Russia if Crimea asks for this. The Parliament of Crimea raised the Russian flag and announced a referendum . Russia decided to conduct mass exercises near borders with Ukraine-just like in 2008 at the borders with Georgia. The Black Sea includes large landing ships of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Federation and the flagship of the 6th Fleet of the United States.

In recent days, Western politicians have already asked Russia to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine several times - they are clearly afraid that Russia could stop doing this. The Minister of Defense of NATO countries and US Secretary of State John Kerry talk about this very persistently, but from direct promises to protect Ukraine refrain.

Fear (or hope, from someone like) that Russia will introduce troops into the Crimea, hangs in the air. Many recall August 1968. But August 1968-flowers compared to what can happen now, the Russian authorities should make a rash decision.

If this really happens, we will find ourselves before the almost inevitable prospect of the third world. It will not happen today or tomorrow - today the West is unlikely to fight for the Crimea. But he will not endure the occupation either. Another sharp movement from Russia - and it will certainly be if the entry of troops into the Crimea will take place, because the logic of events will require the Russian leadership of the next move - and the West will not be able to intervene.

Russia has no sphere of influence recognized by the West, except for its official boundaries.

In the second half of the 20th century, nuclear war was avoided only because the USSR and NATO had clearly distinguished spheres of influence, which had developed before the nuclear era, in the spring and summer of 1945, approximately where the allied armies stopped. This border, perhaps, did not suit the West, but it was quite satisfied with the USSR, the exceptional zone of influence of which expanded far beyond the limits of the Russian Empire. The appearance of nuclear weapons only fixed this border. The West could indignantly look at what the USSR does in Hungary in 1956 or in Czechoslovakia in 1968, empathize with the inhabitants of the countries of “popular democracy”, but he could not do anything, because these countries were “legitimate prey” of the USSR.

Now Russia does not have the sphere of influence recognized by the West, except for its official boundaries. And this obviously does not like her rulers. Because a huge part of what was the Russian Empire and the USSR, today's Russia is lost. And in these territories there are people who speak Russian.

Russian leaders want to return them. If possible, peacefully, within the framework of the Customs Union. But not all countries of the former USSR want to gather around Russia again. The West also does not recognize Russia's claims to protect their population. What makes the situation much more similar to the second, but to the first half of the 20th century, when in Europe there were no clearly divided spheres of influence and calculations of the losers once to revenge only for the time being.

Therefore, if Russia really decides on a military operation, Europe will again be on the threshold of a large war. The second Crimean or third world.

One of the possible scenarios: NATO immediately moves from words to business and in response to the introduction of Russian troops to Crimea decides to provide military assistance to Ukraine, the Americans and the British introduce a fleet into the Black Sea. Crimea was cut off from the Russian Federation geographically by the entire territory of Ukraine, the ships of the Black Sea Fleet are physically and morally outdated, the program of its modernization barely managed to begin, and it is very inferior to both the number and equipment even by one Turkish Navy, not to mention the fleets of Great Britain and the United States. To establish a stable transfer of troops and supplies from Russia through the Kerch Strait in the conditions of NATO’s dominance at sea is also virtually unrealistic. The second Crimean war, if it does not develop into a larger or more nuclear one, will end much faster than the first, and also not in favor of Russia.

This scenario, however, is actually unrealistic. Today, today will not want to fight because of the Crimea, because there are no guarantees that Russia will not decide to occupy the whole of Ukraine or use nuclear weapons. America and Europe will make sharp statements, but will not risk the lives of its citizens.

Obviously, Russian "hawks" are counting on this. And they are probably right. Only there is nothing good in this. Because the cowardice of the West today will almost inevitably lead to a world war tomorrow.

The fact is that Russia will no longer succeed in getting up with a soft reprimand, as after the war with Georgia. Western voters will not understand this. Not for that, they sympathized with the rebellious Ukraine for three months in order to silently watch the tyrant Putin tears her into pieces. This time, the reaction of Western leaders will be as rigid as possible without declaring war and breaking the diplomatic relations. The belonging of the Crimea of ​​Russia or its quasi -dependence will never be recognized. Russia will be excluded from the Council of Europe and other European organizations. Bilateral projects with Western countries will be frozen, probably any sanctions will be imposed against Russia. And, most importantly, to Ukraine, as well as Georgia and others who wished that post -Soviet countries, real guarantees of security and military assistance will be given. Last time, in 2008, this was not done. If Russia regains Crimea, the entire Western press will shout that the inaction of 2008 was a tragic mistake, which led to today's situation. The leaders of the United States, England and Germany will not be repeated to repeat this mistake.

If Russian troops enter the Crimea, all of us will be from a year to three to move to Latin America.

This, in turn, will push the Russian authorities to further expansion. Since they have no way back - it is impossible, in fact, to take Crimea only in order to give it back in a couple of years with the words "sorry, it was not useful." We'll have to go forward.

They say that Putin and his environment are too appreciated by their contributions in Western banks and property in Nice in order to seriously quarrel with the West. But if talking about their personal wealth is true, then these people have long ate. And now they want to go down in history. Not "crooks and thieves", but by uniters of Russian lands and resuscitators of Russian glory. And even if I didn’t want to, the people, as they believe, are waiting and demanding that. And the requirements of the people, as they imagine them, they do not ignore, no matter what they say there. In addition, a significant part of the funds of the Russian elite has probably long been transferred from European countries to less picky places, like Singapore and Hong Kong.

Crimea is an exclus. It is difficult to supply him, he does not provide himself. It is impossible to legalize his return in the eyes of the international community. Relations with the West are torn. And the “patriots” require more - “why did we save our brothers in the Crimea, but are silent, when they are oppressed in Odessa, Kharkov and Riga?”, “Why don't we give an answer to the impudent NATO, selected close to our borders?”, “Why allow Ukraine to block Crimea?” It blocks it or not really, it will not be important - in the Crimea in any case there will be economic and interethnic problems, and it will be most convenient to blame Ukrainians in these problems. The fact that Putin, saying “a” does not say “b”, will be perceived by his voters as a sign of weakness. They will demand the next step. And to take this step will be easier that the Crimea went to Russia easily, without a fight.

Therefore, sooner or later Russia will take this step. He will react to some stupidity that the following government of one of the neighboring countries will commit, such as the Ukrainization of Odessa schools or the transfer of a bronze soldier. That such stupidity will happen, there is no doubt - in neighboring countries in the governments, usually not Einsteins are sitting. And even if the stupidity is small, Russian television is tugs to it to the size of Jupiter. And the Russian army will again send to protect compatriots abroad.

This will be the beginning of a big war. Because Western politicians, no matter how cowardly and indecisive they are, cannot forever wipe themselves. Either they begin to show firmness, or others come in their place. Once European and American politicians have already wiped out - and received contempts from their population and presses. The second time, perhaps, they will get drunk now - and will be doubly. There will be no third time.

The rest of the world, obviously, will take advantage of the situation. Many countries - China, Iran, Turkey, and then on the list - have accumulated many questions to the neighbors, and while Russia fights with NATO, they will be happy to solve them. It is impossible to say who will be on which side, but even if Russia and the United States gets away from the use of nuclear weapons, some Pakistan will not stand for sure. And others will not stand it.

That is why I am almost sure that it will not reach the commissioning of the Russian army into the Crimea. I do not share the widespread opinion that Putin is a stupid and limited person. I think that he understands the possible consequences of such a stroke, remembers the famous words of his idol Stolypin: “Give the state twenty years of peace and external peace” - and what happened when Russia was not given. Therefore, he will not start such adventures, although the temptation is probably very large.

If the excitement prevails over the mind and the Russian troops enter the Crimea, all of us will be somewhere to three to three to move to Latin America. Most likely, they will not shoot missiles on it. As for all other parts of the world, I'm not so sure.