Crimean Anschlus

The Kremlin is faced with great temptation. Anschlus Crimea. At first glance, it is difficult to imagine such an aggressive step by Putin. But if you think about it, then there are no serious circumstances that could prevent this. And the bonuses are very great. Before Yanukovych’s flight from Kyiv as a whole, the political responsibility for Ukraine lay in Europe. And she experienced this responsibility. After all, the entire civil conflict began with the “Vilnius Agreements”, and Europe as if could not leave the people who are addressing it to the mercy of fate. But after the victory of the Maidan and the flight of Yanukovych, the ball moved to half of Putin's field. Now he is, as if responsible for that part of Ukraine that is in opposition to Kyiv. Southeast seemed to have agreed with Yanukovych’s defeat and began to prepare for early elections. And Crimea - no. On February 25, Putin held a meeting of the Security Council in Ukraine. We do not know the decisions made there. But after the 25th was followed by a fast chain of events. Yanukovych not just appeared in Russia, but with a statement and a press conference. Although his personal political card is already a bit. But his statement, of course, plays in the hands of the Kremlin. In Crimea, the parliament voted for the referendum. In Moscow, deputies immediately responded with the initiative: to simplify the acceptance of new entities to the Russian Federation. On February 26-28, senators, deputies, Orthodox bikers and volunteers went to the Crimea. There were reports of attempts to take control of the airports of Simferopol and Sevastopol. The official position of the Kremlin is approximately reconstructed from a series of texts of Fedor Lukyanov - one of the few systemic foreign policy observers. It is as follows: in Ukraine, Failed State , the new authorities in Kiev are illegitimate, Yanukovych’s defeat is organized by the West. The majority of the population of Crimea voluntarily want “state independence” (so far “as part of Ukraine”). That is, this is, as it were, about the "federalization" of Ukraine. Through which one step can lead to the situation to the entry of Crimea into Russia.

Apparently, Putin and his environment made a choice: to maintain the political concept of the illegitimacy of this Kyiv for as long as possible.

What can interfere with this? Putin has very good cards for diplomatic rhetoric in the arms. Firstly, this year a Scottish referendum (why not be Crimean). Secondly, although the concept of “territorial integrity”, of course, is official Moscow and follows international law, avoiding aggression, but to known limits. To the same that the West is in Kosovo. In 2008, Vladimir Putin, in an interview with J. Bush, had already told him about the conventions of the post -war borders of Ukraine. He can repeat this story to the current president of the United States. The development of a response to the ANSHLUS of Crimea will represent a rather difficult problem for the European Union and the USA.

The annexation of Crimea gives in the current situation huge bonuses to Putin. The population of the Russian Federation for the most part will not only support it, but will support it with enthusiasm. The so-called return of Crimea will determine the political image of Putin not for two to three years, but for decades ahead. Any possible failures of domestic policy in the coming years will look less significant than this historical step. In the logic of the game “On the World Chess Board”, Putin, thus, will give a symmetrical answer for Yugoslavia. The fourth, fifth and twelfth presidential terms are guaranteed to him.

The annexation of Crimea gives in the current situation huge bonuses to Putin. The fourth, fifth and twelfth presidential terms are guaranteed to him.

In favor of this scenario, the public appearance of Yanukovych in Rostov primarily speaks. Apparently, by February 25, V. Putin and his environment made a choice: to maintain the political concept of the illegitimacy of this Kyiv for as long as possible. Until the moment until the Crimean issue in favor of the Russian Federation is completely resolved. And it must be solved until May 25. At the same time, Moscow, of course, will participate in the presidential election. Dmitry Orlov has already announced that he was recruiting political technologists in Ukraine. This leader of one of the Kremlin funds is there to understand that he already knows the promising candidate from the southeast of Ukraine, who will be supported by Moscow.

Can the Maidan stand up for the Crimea? Apparently, the Kremlin believes that Euromaidan is now connected. Kyiv does not have tools to independently stop the “federalization” of Crimea. It remains only to appeal to the European Union and the USA. The Kremlin’s answer is known in advance: the Yalta world is over, and everyone's hands are free.

It must be recalled that 19 years have passed from the Versailles agreement to the Anschlus Austria. At one time, Putin called the collapse of the USSR "the largest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century." For those who believe in the same way and who painfully survived the defeat in October 1993, passed 21 years. Twenty years - just a sufficient time to grow up a large, joyful revanchist generation. To be forgotten what the Triumph of Will leads to. In Russia today there are many those who will welcome the Anschlus of Crimea as a worthy answer to our local, post -Soviet Versailles.