Vincent Mundy / Bloomberg

Potential sanctions against Russia in the oil and gas sector cannot be implemented quickly and are unlikely to have any political effect now, during the acute phase of the Ukrainian crisis. But the worsening of relations between Russia and Ukraine could accelerate the long-standing restructuring of the energy market in the US and Europe.

Europe depends on Russian gas by about 30% and on oil by 27%. It will not be possible to quickly replace imports from Russia, and the dependence on gas is more dramatic due to long-term contracts for deliveries through Gazprom pipelines. Russia's bet on the "energy weapon" in the form of redundant and expensive gas pipelines to Europe is now working literally. In peacetime, Gazprom could be criticized for inefficiency, sluggishness, corruption in the construction of pipelines, etc. - in wartime, it turns out that gas exports to Europe reduce the likelihood of sanctions from its side to a minimum.

However, in the medium term, reducing dependence on Russia is becoming an obvious task for Europe.

Earlier this week, two statements were made in the US Congress about the need to help Europe free itself from its oil and gas dependence on Russia. Fred Upton, chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, and John Boehner, the Republican leader, proposed increasing LNG exports in this regard. Discussions about lifting the ban on oil exports (introduced in 1974, when the halt in Arab oil supplies put the American economy at risk) are not connected with politics. According to experts, the oil and gas situation has long been ripe for focusing on exports.

The US dependence on oil imports is decreasing (a few years ago it reached 40%, and today the US provides itself with 85% of its own oil). Oil exports are still possible under licenses, and in recent years more and more of them have been issued - 103 licenses for oil supplies abroad in the 2013 financial year against 66 licenses in 2012).

According to Mikhail Krutikhin, a partner at RusEnergy, the lifting of bans on oil and gas exports should be expected this year. LNG export terminals in the US and the corresponding infrastructure in Europe are already being built. But for now, Europe has nothing to replace Gazprom's gas with. However, financial and administrative sanctions may be effective during the construction of South Stream, says Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis. In the context of the conflict with Ukraine, transit through its territory may be stopped, and then Nord Stream will not be enough to pump the contracted volumes; Gazprom will have problems with revenue, and the budget will have problems with income.

Gazprom will try to compensate for losses in the east: a 30-year contract with China is planned, providing for the supply of 38 billion cubic meters of East Siberian gas per year. So in the long term, we may be talking about an increasingly distinct division of the energy market into east and west. We cannot say that this will result in guaranteed benefits for Russia.

From the editor: Turning the pipe