Live until Monday

A couple of days ago, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Tenyukh said in the Rada that his Armed Forces do not have a legal right to begin military operations in the Crimea. Well, it seems, the signal is sent: we must act, give a decree. But no, we are talking about something else.

In general, since the military, who should be clear, came into business, then it is necessary to describe the situation in Crimea as one or two. Without, of course, reasoning about someone's hypothetical intentions and even without geopolitical reasoning.

Minister of Defense Tenyukh

So, did Tenjukh ask the authority to conduct military operations? No, the Minister of Defense did not even ask the people's deputies of Ukraine to clarify the situation in which external aggression is not recognized for the reason that the leadership of the Russian Federation does not want to recognize the presence of its troops in Crimea. It seems that this situation is quite happy with the minister.

It is clear why she suits him. It would be obvious to begin fighting in the Crimea, and this would have to be done when the act of aggression would be officially recognized and, by the words of Tenyukh, " martial law would be declared in the legal regime ." But what to do with obviously illegal - and categorically no nonsense, but exciting airfields, etc. - Military formations that suddenly appeared in the country? That's exactly who should deal with them? It turns out that the actions of such persons cannot be stopped at all until they appear? But it seems that this situation is now satisfied with everyone: Russia, the West, as well as the ministers of the defense and internal affairs of Ukraine. Such a consensus. Strange, of course.

But the oddity here is logical. Further, the Minister of Defense began to translate the arrows even further, saying that " a number of strategic errors were made over the previous years ." Home for him: " We have never considered the danger from Russia ." But only the UPS - there was no strategic mistake here - it was impossible to assume aggression from Russia for a variety of reasons. As a result, the absurdity of the situation is obvious: someone acts in Crimea, but no one knows who they are. Of course, everyone understands who it is, but - they do not pronounce aloud.

Actually, this situation in itself is a challenge to the existing structure of world security, and - a fundamentally new type. And then the details are curious. For example, it is clear that there was no resources, in order to quickly build an army that could reflect Russian intervention in nature. But it seems that this was the reason for Tenyukh to turn to this topic in general.

He admitted that " to prepare for the confrontation with such a powerful opponent as Russia needs a lot of money and time " and began to tell that there are 220 thousand military, 150 aircraft, 60 ships, tanks " and other equipment on the border from Russia, which is several times superior to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, " the Armed Forces of Ukraine has only tactics and fighting spirit. We brought all the armed forces to the degree of combat readiness in accordance with the plan of exercises. But the statistics are disappointing ." Somehow: out of 41 thousand ground forces, only 6 thousand were actually ready.

This, in fact, in the genre "all disappeared." Moreover, it is not clear who the Minister of Defense complains here and to whom. But then he appealed to the deputies with a request to change the law on procurement and tenders, urging the army to provide armies. And this moment was clearly a key for him in the whole performance. Because in Ukraine there is just a topic to promote the oligarchs to help the army. It seems that she was still a little late, this time she could not be in time, but with whom to fight then?

Power First Vice Yarem

And on Wednesday, the First Deputy Prime Minister Yarem (is responsible in the Ukrainian government for law enforcement agencies) said that the country, " despite the difficult situation, are brought into full combat readiness ." There is a clearly inconsistent duplication of statements on one occasion, and specifically multi -vector ones. As if ministers compete with each other, and do not solve the problem. Well, but it is said that " out of 41 thousand ground forces, only 6 thousand were ready " ... Yarema assesses the situation differently?

At first, Yarema said that Russian troops continue to increase their presence along the eastern border of Ukraine. According to him, " the armed forces were put into full combat readiness, the All -Ukrainian military exercises began ... I am sure that at this difficult time the army will fulfill its high duty to Ukraine, despite the fact that over the past four years, a systemic sabotage was carried out to undermine the national security and defense of Ukraine ."

Here he - something even logical - suddenly said that the prosecutor's office " in the near future should begin an investigation and bring to justice all who were related to plundering military property in the structures of the Ministry of Defense ." That is, the situation on the border is no longer in such a way that he is interested in, he needs to accuse his former power. Of course, he added that the Cabinet " has already taken a number of measures to increase the financing of the needs of the Ukrainian army ." Apparently, after this, the Russian threat will dissipate, and indeed - his goal, like the Minister of Defense of Tenyukh, at this historical moment is to knock out additional financing.

At the same time, Yarem also spoke out in the Crimea, saying that the results of the referendum would not have legal force-it is not clear why it was necessary to declare the “power” deputy prime minister about this. But the next phrase of Yarema is already in his competence: " A criminal group acts on the peninsula, which in an unconstitutional way seized power and relies on the Russian military ." However, instead of informing how he intends to act in this case, he only repeated that " the will under the sight of automatic weapons would not be recognized either by Ukraine or the world as a whole ." That is, the head of the security forces is not going to eliminate this someone else's "automatic weapon".

Moreover, the acting reacts exactly in the same spirit President of Ukraine Turchinov, even cooler. In an interview with AFP, he said that Ukraine will not try to forcefully stop the Russian occupation of Crimea, " because thereby we will put the eastern borders and Ukraine will remain defenseless ." Here it would be necessary to pause to comprehend the given moment of state wisdom. And after that, the conclusion is also obvious: it seems that Kyiv in fact invites Russia to pick up Crimea and not touch the East. With some calculation that they can’t keep Crimea, but the West will definitely do something here.

The West is waiting for Monday

German Foreign Minister Steinmeier said that all 28 EU countries believe that the Crimean branch is unacceptable by international law and requires an answer. The question is, will 28 EU countries compose a variant of such an answer and what do they think about this topic now?

So far, according to Steinmeier, the EU is not looking for confrontation with Russia and is trying to avoid its diplomatic means. But " if the process of separation of Crimea continues, if this weekend there is such a result with a referendum that is used to separate the Crimea from Ukraine and its inclusion in the territory of Russia, then Europe, of course, will have to react ." But if the EU reaction is made dependent on the results of the referendum, which they suddenly began to take seriously, then they definitely have no plan.

Of the response options, Steinmeier sees only the next sanctions that will arise if Russia does not behave otherwise. The first package of sanctions stopped preparations for the G8 summit in Sochi, negotiations on the liberalization of the visa regime for Russian citizens and the preparation of a new agreement on the relations of the EU and Russia. And now we will talk about freezing assets and " a ban on entry for leading persons in the power of Russia ."

Other Europeans have yet to theorize. The European Commissioner for the expansion and policeman policy of Fuul said that Russia's actions in Ukraine are " a serious challenge to Helsinsky agreements on the inviolability of borders in Europe ." The President of the European Commission Barroza said that the West in no case recognizes the referendum. Somehow this is unpleasant: the leading representatives of the EU unanimously talk about the threat of border stability in Europe, but no one has yet said how to fight this threat. Probably, until the end of the weekend they will assume that this threat scares Russia, which is why it will reverse at the last moment.

A little more specifically was the chairman of the OSCE Burkkhalter, who excluded the possibility of sending OSCE observers to the Crimean referendum, since " there should have been a preliminary condition for the activities of observers in this regard by the relevant OSCE Member State ." Well, the constructive here in the sense that earlier the Crimean authorities ennobled the situation with the referendum by the fact that they would be observed from Russia and from the OSCE. And the voter lists themselves, it seems, does not.

In general, in the idea of ​​new sanctions, an item is interesting about the ban on entry into the EU for leading persons in the power of Russia. Can it touch Putin? If so, then in fact it will be the international isolation of Russia up to freezing diplomatic agents with it. But if Putin does not affect this, then this is not sanctions, because the initiator of this historical process is precisely he. That is, everything would be very interesting to get out of the role of personality in history, and - a specific person in a particular story.