On March 21, the State Duma of the Russian Federation will consider the bill on the accession of Crimea to Russia - a spectacle familiar to all the fascinated history

The beginning of the "Prague Spring" was saturated with the spirit of freedom and independence. Prague, April 1968
Wars in the modern era begin, as a rule, without announcement. After all, if you declare war, then you are an aggressor. In addition, the country, which openly unleashing military operations, is in an extremely uncomfortable position from an international legal point of view. Therefore, without exception, all the attacks of the Arab countries on Israel took place without war ads to Israel. There was no announcement of the war and Kuwait when Iraq attacked him - instead, Baghdad said that Iraqi troops entered the Iraq Province illegally rejected by the British imperialists, and not at all into a sovereign country. Then there was a “storm in the desert”, but not then, in 1991, when the coalition troops, led by the United States, entered Iraq, freeing Kuwait, nor a second time, in 2003, when Saddam Hussein was overthrown-the war was officially declared. In part, for the reason that formally coercion was carried out in relation to the “anti -people regime”, and by no means the people of Iraq. Nowadays, the war without declaring war is a certain generally accepted, albeit unpleasant kind of policy. However, in fact, any presence (and movement) of the armed forces of one country in the territory of another without its permission is aggression, and therefore the real state of war. Regardless of whether the fighting with firp and the death of people is going there.
This is exactly what we are observing in the Crimea, where on the night of February 26-27, the well -equipped armed armed people who appeared from the Crimean parliament, the cabinet, key objects of life support, airfields and railway units that appeared from where they were Russian military, as they say, from the special units of the GRU. And the fact that they hid it, putting on a uniform without insignia is an additional aggravating attribute. They, like gangsters, had to hide their faces - a shameful thing for a military man in themselves - and for this shame, they condemned them to the one who gave the order to the Russian troops to occupy Crimea.
Without a single shot
In the Nuremberg process, Nazi Germany was tried, including for violation of international agreements on non -aggression and use of force the first, which Germany itself signed in the interwar period. At that time, the Third Reich very widely used the “peaceful entry of troops” into the territory that he wanted to join - without resistance and a single shot.
In 1935, the Saar region voted to reunite with Germany and already in March 1936 the Wehrmacht’s troops in violation of the Versailles and Locarnsky agreements entered the Rhine demilitarized zone. This gave France the right to use military power against Germany and obliged the guarantors of Locarno - Great Britain and Italy - to provide it with all possible assistance. The balance of power was clearly not in favor of Germany, but Hitler was risk, counting on the cowardice and inconsistency of the actions of the Western powers. His calculation was fully justified: Great Britain and Italy evaded fulfilling its obligations, and France did not dare to fight alone, limited to loud protests. The League of Nations condemned Germany’s violation of international treaties, but refrained from the introduction of any sanctions against it.
In February-March 1938, Hitler Germany increased pressure on Austria, forcing her to join the Reich. The Conservative-Catholic Austrian elite did not at all eager to join the National Socialist Paradise. Chancellor Kurt Alois von Shushnig declared a plebiscite on March 13, to which only one question was brought out: "Do you want Austria to be a sovereign and independent German state?" However, Hitler decided not to tempt the fate of the results of popular will: three days before the vote, he forced the Austrian president to cancel the referendum and shift von Shushnig, appointing the leader of the local Nazis of Arthur Zeiss-Vort. On the evening of March 11, German troops “at the invitation” of the new chancellor entered Austria. (Later it turned out that Zeiss-Iskvart himself found out that he “invited” the Germans, only from newspapers.) And soon the idea of a referendum was already useful to Hitler: on April 10, 1938, including Ostmark, the occupied Austria was now called-the plebisite was held: 99.75 % of the Austrian voted for unification with the Herman Reich.
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The new Chancellor of Austria Zeiss-Iskvart that he “invited” the Germans, learned only from newspapers
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Although Germany grossly violated the Versailles and Saint-Germain agreements, France answered only a formal note of protest. The British and the French even refused to discuss this issue in the League of Nations: Austria Anschlus at that time seemed to many in the world as a voluntary reunification of the German people in a single state.
Approximately the same scenario and with the same result was the Anschlus of the Sudet, which Hitler Ottorg from the Czechoslovak Republic in early October 1938, as well as the Anschlus of the Klaipeda region on March 22–23, 1939. In all these cases, it was also said about the gathering of a broken German people in a single Reich.
Having “reunited” with the complete connivance of the League of Nations, the German people and his land (and this was Hitler's main idea), the Nazi Reich took up Slavic Poland - after all, the appetite comes during eating. A rolled scenario was launched: some people in Polish form seized the supposedly border radio station and handed the statement that Poland should crush Germany. After that, they were arrested and, apparently, destroyed. Who were they? Apparently-after all, the Germans, obviously not the Poles. But Germany, instead of trying to clarify the situation, begins a military intervention in Poland.
The same scenario was used by the Soviet Union for aggression against Finland in November 1939: then supposedly the Finnish border guards (or Finnish artillery) fired at some Russian village on the other side of the border, the Red Army were killed. The Soviet Union rejected all proposals for the mediation and examination of the incident and declared war on Finland. Immediately, by the way, the Kuusinen puppet government was created in Teriyoki, which “invited” Soviet troops.

The Upper Mate Parade in Vienna on March 15, 1938
The poverty of arguments
In December 1939, the USSR was convicted by the League of Nations as an aggressor for the war with Finland and excluded from it. At the same time, Finland actually won that “unknown war”, retained its sovereignty, although at the cost of the loss of several areas.
Is the current Russian government going to, since it did not manage to overthrow the new Ukrainian power in Kyiv, play the same Stalinist scenario: reluctantly agree to agree to the sovereignty of present -day Ukraine, having torn off some areas, primarily Crimea, as a kind of fee for this concession.
Most likely, this is so. But the fact is that now it is still not the 30s of the XX century.
In the late 30s, Europe was quite tolerant of Hitler's atrocities. Not that she supported them, no, - just everyone was terribly afraid of Stalin, Communism, the Comintern, and dangers on the left. And Hitler then seemed a much more respectable politician than Stalin. He, as many thought, was still a European politician, well, yes, an extreme sense, but then there was no shortage of authoritarian rulers at all-the same Mussolini, and the ruling regime in Austria, by the way, was very close in spirit to the Italian corporate fascist state.
The Crimea, started by Moscow, will turn out to be meaningless adventure
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Therefore, Hitler's interests in Europe were to some extent to respect-if only he agreed to be a shield against the Bolsheviks. And when Hitler announced the creation of the anti -Comintern pact, many applauded. Now the situation is completely different. The Comintern has long been gone, as there are no dangers similar to this. Putin Russia has nothing to protect the world from. She can not support her military aggression in the Crimea any arguments other than rude nationalism.
Today, the world community understands: if Putin to pull off a piece of Ukraine or force it to change the political regime, then, in fact, all other countries of the former USSR, with the exception of the Baltic states, which in NATO, will be in danger. After all, Russia can do the same with them. Therefore, the world will most likely allow nothing like the Austrian Austrian Austrian Aweshlus in relation to Crimea.
Russia is not the USSR
In August 1968, Soviet troops entered Czechoslovakia. Then it was not a question of protecting the uniceplay. The USSR acted not alone, but with the support of the Warsaw Treaty countries. The goal was not to conquer or rejection of a piece of territory, but the restoration of Soviet domination (though Russia is also concerned about the loss of its influence on Ukraine). And yet some analogies suggest.
The then leadership of the USSR saw in the “Prague Spring” a bad example, which would infect both Poland, Hungary, and the GDR, and then, God forbid, and will penetrate the Soviet territory. The leadership of Czechoslovakia was replaced by a more reliable and loyal - in full accordance with the so -called doctrine of Brezhnev, which assumed the limited sovereignty of countries - the non -unified allies of the USSR. Today, the invariant of this doctrine can be considered the “doctrine of Putin”: the entire territory of the former USSR, except for the Baltic states, is the zone of influence of Russia.
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Putin Russia has nothing to protect the world from. She cannot support her military aggression in Crimea other than gross nationalism
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The invasion of Czechoslovakia caused a strong blow to the international reputation of the "homeland of socialism." But the Soviet Union was then a real superpower, and the West, in essence, silently agreed with the "doctrine of Brezhnev."
The current Russia is a military -faint state and absolutely failure in economic. There is no need to expect any real opposition to NATO from him. The Crimea, started by Moscow, in fact, will turn out to be meaningless adventure.
Photo: Interfoto/Photos/ITAR-TASS, KEYSTONE/EAST News