What will happen

What the Crimean crisis came to Russia, Ukraine and the world

On March 13, in Donetsk there was a clash between the supporters of the Maidan and the pro -Russian activists. Bottom line: one person died, 17 wounded

On March 14, two days before the referendum on the accession of Crimea to Russia (he passed after signing this number to print), Washington, apparently, made the last attempt to persuade Moscow to abandon claims to the peninsula in a good way. But six-hour negotiations in London of the heads of foreign policy departments of Russia and the United States ended in nothing: Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow “would respect the will of the Crimean people”, and John Kerry called the referendum illegal and announced the “very serious series of steps” against Russian senior officials on Monday, on the 17th.

The Americans had reasons to hope to soften the Kremlin’s position. Indeed, the day before, they sent Moscow at once several distinct signals about their firm determination to counteract the annexation of Crimea.

So, on March 13, immediately after the meeting of Barack Obama with Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the United States announced their intention to sell 5 million tons of barrels of oil from strategic reserves. Despite such an insignificant volume, the market hint of the upcoming collapse of prices understood: the cost of a barrel on the New York Exchange fell by 2%immediately.

On the same day, at Vienna, at the request of the FBI, the Ukrainian oligarch Dmitry Firtash was detained, co -owner of Rosucranergo, the main confidant of Gazprom in Ukraine and, as they say, the shadow owner of Crimea. The world media unanimously regarded this fact as the “last warning” to Vladimir Putin and the entire Russian elite. However, Putin, judging by the results of London negotiations, and ignored this signal.

However, it is impossible to consider such a denouement unexpected. Indeed, on the morning of March 14, it became known that the head of the Board of Directors of Gazprom, Viktor Zubkov, sold all the shares of the company belonging to him. Why would it be? He knows for sure that Gazprom quotes will soon collapse? But this can happen only in one case - if Russia continues its Ukrainian campaign, despite the intensifying opposition of the West.

So, we still expect a full-scale conflict with the USA and Europe, tough economic sanctions and the prospect of the collapse of the Russian economy? What will really happen to Russia and Ukraine after March 16?

About this - in the main topic of the room.

Photos: Reuters