Translated material
Stargov to the bottom
Russia is threatened by a crisis comparable to the 1998 default. Prices will continue, and the government is ready for the worst
Even before the start of the Crimean crisis, the Russian economy smoothly, but irresistibly slid for a recession. The growth of capital began to take the form of a panic flight. The Ministry of Economy began to lower macroeconomic forecasts. Real incomes of the population began to decline. But now the Russian authorities do not need to explain why the economy is flying to the bottom. All miscalculations and failures can be attributed to the machinations of external forces.As the head of the Bureau of Economic Investigations, Maxim Blant, notes , "by the beginning of this year, Putin and his team loomed a very unpleasant prospect of signing in his own failure and begin to explain to the population, which is why life is more and less expensive every day." In this regard, Putin’s composure, which did not particularly frighten economic sanctions, became amazing. “For Putin, acting in the interests of the country, its economy and the population is a secondary, auxiliary task,” explains Maxim Blunt. “It ceases to play a significant role if it conflicts with the main task - to hold the power as long as possible, to strengthen it. Long -term sluggish stagflation, requiring structural, institutional and political reforms, is not more attractive to this basic task. The shock scenario looks - a deep, but short -lived collapse, accompanied by devaluation and inflationary surge, massive bankruptcies and deliverance from the “Ballast” overloaded with debts, the rapid achievement of the “bottom”, from which the ideal model can be pushed and starting.
According to Maxim Blanus, “Putin took advantage of the Ukrainian revolution not only for the implementation of a shock economic scenario within Russia, but also to strengthen his own power.” And he succeeded. “The economy in the mass consciousness has retreated to the third plan. The euro exceeded the euro for 50 rubles, the stock market collapsed by a quarter, the products in stores went up by the same quarter, and the people in a huriotic fiber celebrate“ victory ”on Red Square, spitting on the prospect of paying for this victory (integration and maintenance of Crimea-permanent Sochi) until the end of life”.
Maxim Blunt answered questions from Radio Liberty.
- You predict that the current situation will lead to a disaster for the Russian economy. Judging by the data of the polls, the ordinary layman, who is now experiencing a patriotic rise, does not think about the danger to his family budget. What threatens him?
For each piece of bread, for each package of milk, yogurt, pants, etc.- Regardlessly Ukrainian history, this year began with the collapse of the ruble in relation to the dollar and especially to the euro. Absolute records were set. This inevitably affects inflation and will affect further. Relatively speaking, for each piece of bread, for each package of milk, yogurt, pants, etc. You will have to pay 15-20% more expensive. And this process will continue. Since the beginning of the year, foods have risen in price to 25%. This is the price that every Russian pays - from a laborer to the president. Last year, again, regardless of Crimea, the process of reducing real incomes of the population in the Russian economy began. This process will continue and will accelerate this year because of the situation in Ukraine, due to international sanctions, due to the fact that investors turned the outflow of capital into a panic flight. Already this year, the fall of GDP is predicted. Accordingly, apparently, unemployment will grow and some enterprises will be closed. This week, the First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that the government is ready for the worst development of events in the Russian economy, and this worst scenario is connected not so much with the formal sanctions that the Western countries introduce, but with the attitude of investors. Lowering the ratings of Russian banks, a decrease in the forecast for the sovereign rating of Russia, the actions of investment bankers, possible sanctions against Russian state banks - all this together can lead to a serious financial crisis in Russia. The same Shuvalov said that, unlike 2008-2009, the government would not save everyone. He said that the Russian economy needs recovery, it is necessary to cleanse - he did not say what - purification and modernization. Cleaning is clear - from ineffective production. In principle, the government is preparing for a shock scenario and preparing it.
- And this crisis would be inevitable without the Crimean campaign?
- But such a crisis will bring down such a cherished rating of Putin.
- I doubt. Because the worse things are, the higher Putin's rating. It is necessary to thank for this propaganda, the anti -Western and anti -Ukrainian campaign, which began in Russia. It is clear that the State Department is to blame for everything, and the president under his wing raits the nation in order to withstand the external enemy and the fifth column within the country, the national traitors and other things. They want to destroy us, and we will rally, instead of oil - guns. In the USSR, approximately the same picture was in the 30s, and not only in the USSR.
- Many predicted that the ruble and courses of Russian actions will collapse immediately after the announcement of sanctions. But this did not happen. Why?
-Firstly, they crumbled before the sanctions were announced. Secondly, investors were preparing in advance for a more dramatic development of events, more stringent sanctions. There was talk up to the point that Russian assets and international reserves could freeze in Federal Reserve. Since the sanctions are still individual, investors have concluded that, as it were, everything is not so scary yet. In addition, there are several more factors that last two weeks inhibit the fall. That is, the stock market collapsed and slowed down. Usually after the new year there is a sharp increase. Now the stock market has lost about a quarter of its capitalization since last year. The same applies to the ruble. Here, the Central Bank also conducts interventions, increased the refinancing rate, which will further affect the state of the real sector of the Russian economy, that is, loans are more expensive, respectively, it will be more difficult to develop. And now the end of the quarter, ruble hunger has appeared when enterprises need to pay taxes. Therefore, there is still an inactive discharge of dollars. There is no as it usually happens at the end of the quarter, when the ruble grows quite cheerfully. Just the process of devaluation was inhibited and investors froze in anticipation. If there is a further escalation, some situation in Ukraine with the participation of Russian green men and troops directly, we will see the continuation of what has happened since the beginning of the year, that is, the ruble will continue to lose. But I would not overestimate either the rebound of the ruble after its fall, or the sluggish rebound of the stock market. Moreover, to say that we have reached at least the level of last year, we do not have to.
- Sanctions will probably expand now. Oil prices can seriously fall, there is an offer of the United States to start direct supply of natural gas to Europe, etc. What scenarios do you see here?
The worst scenario, respectively, is such a return to the tough administrative system using free labor of prisoners- The script is the one that the government is seeking. Yes, shock, devaluation, closing a number of enterprises. A number of private companies, under the pretext of assisting the state, become national companies, that is, they give their shares to the aid in return. And then a powerful fist, which turns into a Russian economy under manual control. Everything that is ineffective and uninteresting for the company in respect of which sanctions are applied somehow slowly dies. If everything goes completely unpleasant, then you can open a struggle against an internal enemy. They already offer real terms to give for what you write about the situation about the situation in the Crimea. We must recall that Dmitry Anatolyevich, together with Vladimir Vladimirovich, has long been dreaming of mastering the vast expanses of Siberia and the Far East. Without a Gulag, apparently, they can’t do it. The worst scenario, respectively, is such a return to the rigid administrative system using free labor of prisoners. But this is the most extreme scenario, which is not yet more than 30%. And so - a shock scenario according to the 1998 model.
- And the friends of Putin, against whom sanctions are directed, can they seriously ruin their lives?
-I was recently asked at Echo of Moscow-but if they lose one, the other, the fifth billion dollars ... Billions are a matter, firstly, profitable, and secondly, I think, under any sanctions, they will be able to afford anything. Here we are talking not so much about money as about maintaining power and partly about personal security. Now Putin is in a state of man who actually usurped power in the country and acting not in the interests of the country and its citizens, but in the interests of maintaining personal power. And he understands that. And the people who confront him understand this. The more he moves in this direction, the less his ways to retreat. Therefore, the loss of twenty, ten, five or one billion dollars is not the price that could be thought about.