Iceberg named "Russia"

Why Putin called Obama

“Nothing, it will ride” - they probably thought, in the Kremlin, starting the Crimean campaign. It didn’t ride: the sanctions of the EU and the USA, defeat at the UN General Assembly, curtailing all contacts with NATO ... Moscow sharply activated the game on the diplomatic field, Putin personally joined the “telephone diplomacy”. Will there be a result?

Sergey Lavrov and John Kerry often communicate. Mutual understanding in Ukraine is rarely achieved. In the picture: in the residence of the US Ambassador in London, March 14, 2014

In his presidential suite at Ritz-Carleton Hotel in Ri-Riyad, US President Barack Obama returned at eight o’clock in the evening on March 28. Behind there was a two -hour dinner with the king of Saudi Arabia Abdalla ibn Abdel Aziz Al Saud. They discussed Syria and Iran. Obama recommended Saudis more selective to the supply of weapons of the Syrian opposition: modern portable anti-aircraft missile systems and anti-tank systems, given the Syrian chaos, may well be in the wrong hands. Abdullah promised to track the supply channels harder. At some point, the monarch, according to the Saudi media, unexpectedly changed the topic and spoke about oil, as if prematurely possible questions and questioning of his visa. Golden times for the guardianship have long passed, the king complained, there was almost no easily mastered deposits, the prey is getting more expensive, and the contraception enemies are not asleep. Here, they say, Iran is going to return to the market, after he concluded a truce with the West-he agreed to maintain the enrichment of Uranus within the framework of his nuclear program within 5 percent limits. Abdullah complained about life. But what Arab Sheikh-millionaire does not complain of life in her most promising moments! The parties agreed to continue the “strategic dialogue”.

Before the American board number one villages in Riyadh, tons of verbal ore were produced all over the world about the fact that Obama was firmly intended to seek from the Saudis to increase oil production, in order to reduce its final price. Moreover, America itself has already set an example, having unlocked a week before its strategic oil supply of 3 million tons. On America's mind, Russia was guilty of Crimea: the fall of the world price by only $ 12 for a barrel would have come to a 40-billion deficit in the Russian budget. Moreover, the Saudis had their own complaints about Moscow, who, in a decisive form, rejected Er-Riyad’s request to stop supporting Bashar Assad ...

In less than half an hour, Vladimir Putin called the hotel room Obama. The call was absolutely unexpected. We talked for almost an hour. Until this moment, everything was exactly the opposite, Putin accepted the calls that the Kremlin press service was not tired of emphasizing in his press releases: “The conversation took place on the initiative of the American (German, British, etc.) Parties.”

Alarm

What's happened? What made the owner of the Kremlin overcome the pride? Indeed, literally a couple of days before in Brussels Obama, for the first time during his presidency, for the first time, it was extremely strictly outlined by the geopolitical instincts of his Kremlin implant, and even placed them in humiliating geographical frames: “Russia is a regional power that threatens its direct neighbors out of force, but out of weakness ...” while the United States “have an impact on the neighbors, not in need of demonstration of military force”.

On the other hand, in Brussels, Obama promised to remove the dependence of the Old World on Russian gas due to massive supplies of natural fuel from the United States: “We are ready to resolve natural gas exports in such quantities in which Europe is used daily.”

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“Six months after the entry of troops into Afghanistan, Leonid Brezhnev also ordered the partial withdrawal of troops. So what about that? The full conclusion took place only nine years later "

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“Putin felt a real threat,” says Stephen Blocmans, an expert at the Center for European Political Studies in Brussels (Chain). - Western sanctions against Russia started on March 6, but then there was a slight bite. On the 17th, the EU and the USA “shot” against a number of people from his inner circle, the volley was covered by Russia Bank and banks affiliated with it. But the most unpleasant threatened to become the “third phase” - she would hook the entire Russian energy sector. It was such a signal that Putin heard Obama in the Brussels speech. ”

There were, however, side signals. In mid-March, the Directive of the European Commissioner for the Energy of Gunther Ettinger diverged the Brussels corridors: the main countries-consumers of Russian energy resources were invited to develop options for alternative supplies within 90 days. The goal is to halve dependence on Russian supplies.

“Russia's strategic calculation - dominance in the European energy market that would overlap any political costs,” says another chain expert Michael Emerson. - In fact, Europe is an island in the middle of the Gaza Sea - from Norway in the north to Algeria in the south and Russia in the east. Plus-suppliers of liquefied gas due to the ocean. But Russia is much more difficult and more expensive to find a substitution of the European market. The Asian market could be an alternative, but this implies the construction of thousands of kilometers of new pipelines. ”

Local McDonald's suspended work on "production reasons". Simferopol, April 4, 2014

"After Crimea"

Gas, energy, agreements, export-import, losses, sanctions are only the visible part of the iceberg called “Russia”, which, as Western politicians realized after Crimea, drifts incomprehensibly where and at any moment can rush the belly of any “Titanic”. Merkelevskoye (about Putin) “He lives in his own world, in an invented reality” - exactly about it. And also - about the inevitable loss of confidence, without which any attempts by Moscow to build a strong negotiation position in order to return part of the lost international authority with the help of diplomacy, barren.

“Today, Putin is scared not so much the prospect of new sanctions, the whole world already realized that there will be no“ third phase ”of sanctions, if only Russian tanks go to the Donbass,” the French political scientist, director of the Observo Center Arno Dubyen. “It is important for Putin to maintain contact with the Europeans and give them a signal: Moscow does not want further escalation.”

In a telephone conversation with Obama, the Russian president outlined the mood of Moscow for a constant diplomatic dialogue with Washington, let, say, Kerry and Lavrov continue to work in Ukraine, we have new offers. “O'K,” says Obama. “Just fix them on paper (not because it will endure everything, but so that there is no free interpretation).” Hit hands. Lavrov goes from the Hague to Paris to an extraordinary meeting with Kerry, who is already on the way to Washington, his plane is on an intermediate landing in the Irish Shannon, but, having received a presidential signal, turns around and flies there to Paris. “To the Crimea” this meeting could be a breakthrough, decisive. "After the Crimea" - otherwise. The Americans focus on the “compromise proposals” of Moscow, but on the Putin’s remarks (in the same conversation with Obama) according to Transnistria: they say that the Russian -speaking region in the external blockade, tell the Ukrainians that we do not like it. To which Obama gives the team no only Kerry, but also to the commander -in -chief of NATO forces in Europe, General Philip Briadlaw, not to leave the continent, but vigilantly monitor the Russians: who knows that they will come to mind in the “Transnistrian direction”. Moreover, on the border with Ukraine there is a 40 thousandth Russian group.

Russian diplomats in Europe refuse to accept foreign ministries - such incidents took place in Paris and Hague

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A day later, Putin takes another step towards the West: he calls Angel Merkel to inform her of the given order to partially withdraw the troops: the battalion of the 15th separate guards motorized rifle brigade returns to the places of permanent deployment in the Samara region. The purpose of the message: MOKKVA is tuned to de -escalation of the situation, we are not going to enter any troops anywhere. The effect is almost zero. On the contrary, it does not pass for a day, as Kyiv announces a plan of military exercises with NATO forces. And the alliance itself is about the folding of cooperation programs with Moscow.

Putin's initiatives in the West are perceived as Brezhnevsky: Russians say one thing and what they have on their minds - who will analyze. “Six months after the entry of troops into Afghanistan, Leonid Brezhnev also ordered a partial withdrawal of troops,” one European diplomat in Moscow recalls in a conversation with The New Timess. - So what? The full conclusion took place only after nine years. ”

Latent, creeping

The first precedent of trade and financial sanctions in history goes back to the 5th century BC, when the Athenian Maritime Union forbade the admission to its ports to merchants from the city of Megara. The ban hit the megars heavily, they turned to Sparta, their ally in the Peloponnesian Union. According to Plutarch, this incident served as one of the main reasons for the Peloponnesian war, the historian Fukidid considered it differently. War and sanctions are very often nearby. Our era is an extra confirmation of this, rightly reminded the respectable American magazine Foreign Affares in one of the last numbers: over Iran, for example, when it was punished by sanctions for enriching Uranus, an additional Damocles sword always hung - in the form of an Israeli military strike. The same chances were and are preserved in Assad Syria.

Sanctions against Russia are already something else. Here no one is in a hurry. It is foolish to expect that Russia will return Crimea, the author of Foreign Affairs believes, and the Russian elite, weighed down by frozen avoirs, will suddenly change its behavior and way of thinking. No, in the case of Russia, the rate is made just for a while, for a purposeful undermining of the economic basis of the current Russian government. Gas and oil, contrary to the common opinion, is only one of the components. In fact, Russia managed to deeply grow into the global financial market, to intertwine with it a thousand threads. The paradox is that if it were not for the sanctions, no one would have sninted for a long time. And now noticed. Investors plunged into despondency, voting with their feet along with their capital: the forecast for the outflow of capital from the Russian Federation in the first quarter of 2014 is $ 70 billion, more than the entire last year, rating agencies, in unison, which took a change in forecasts in Russia, and stock exchanges. Next - on the list.

“These are not just sanctions against individuals. This is frontal systemic work on the insulation of the Russian Federation at all levels "

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Last year, the Russian economy had all the signs of crisis and stagnation. The sanctions only added pessimism. And the main fear is not because of the knowledge of what has already been announced. He is because of the ignorance of what could still happen, which the First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov quite reasonably drew attention to. And another “vice” Dmitry Rogozin was not far from the truth when he warned: real sanctions against the Russian Federation will be latent.

System work

On April 1, the American bank JP Morgan blocked the payment of the Russian Embassy in Astana for the Sogaz insurance company. The American bank "overdated" to the US administration, sarcastically responded to this incident a Russian Foreign Ministry. In fact, he did not overdo it, but reinsured. Bank managers are already living "after Crimea." As well as the top managers of McDonald's, which covered all its points in Crimea on April 3. The painting is completed by the complaints of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov voiced a few days ago that Russian diplomats in Europe refuse to accept foreign ministries (according to The New Times, such incidents took place in Paris and the Hague), and European diplomats in Moscow refuse to attend events with the participation of Russian officials who fell into sanctions stoplist ...

“Behind the external diplomatic bravado of Moscow lies the awareness of the seriousness of the sanctions,” says Ukrainian political scientist Alexei Bluminov. “Because these are not just sanctions against individuals and businesses are frontal systemic work on the international isolation of the Russian Federation at all levels.”

Perhaps not so frontal: formally, the dialogue is not interrupted, negotiations are underway, assurances in mutual reverence are voiced. But something important is already irreparably lost-perhaps years. In the meantime ... On April 3, US President Barack Obama signed the 4152 Law adopted by both chambers of Congress - on the support of Ukraine and sanctions against Russian and Ukrainian citizens who are considered responsible for the crisis in the country neighboring Russia, and simply corrupt officials. Kyiv will receive credit guarantees for $ 1 billion and immediate assistance in the amount of $ 150 million. Moscow - a signal that she does not have to wait for any messages after the annexation of Crimea.

Photo: Reuters, Brendan Smialowski/Pool/Reuters