Why Donbass will not become part of Russia

The mocking parody of the Kiev Maidan gives the events in the east of Ukraine not so much the political crisis as the cruel reality show like those that were fashionable to shoot fantastic cinema in the eighties of the last century. You have people in the square, and we have people in the square, you have tires, and we have tires, you have someone on your knees in front of the protesters-and they put us. Fortunately, in the east there is still no “heavenly hundred”, but the atmosphere has the most bad forebodings-there is no reason to think that the director of the “Russian Spring” is distinguished by some special, exceptional humanism, and the design “you have a hundred, and we have a hundred”, no matter how terrible it sounds, it has long seemed to be something impossible for a long time.

After the transformation of Crimea into the Federal District of Russia, nothing seems impossible at all. Who could have thought two months ago that Dmitry Medvedev would hold a meeting on the socio-economic development of the peninsula in Simferopol? And he now spends them there, and this is important not so much from the point of view of the future Crimea, but how much from the point of view that no one thought that this was generally possible - it turned out that they did not think in vain.

And now, observing what is happening in the east of Ukraine, who will entrust that the Donetsk, Kharkov and Lugansk regions will meet the new one, 2015 as part of the same country in which 2014 met? The suddenly awakened imperialism of the Russian authorities, which does not meet (except, except, perhaps, rhetorical) resistance of the Ukrainian side, is capable of, as already proven by Crimea, to work miracles. Now, when about the same news came from Donetsk, Kharkov and Lugansk that came from Simferopol and Sevastopol a month and a half ago, it's time to think about when to wait in the Kremlin of a new expanded meeting of both chambers of the Federal Assembly, which solemnly will sign an agreement on the adoption of several new subjects to Russia.

And the more obvious it is just such a prospect, the more confident it can be said: this will never happen. Russia will no longer accept a single new region of Eastern Ukraine. There will be neither a solemn meeting in the Kremlin, nor the signing of the contract, nor rallies of solidarity with the participation of trouble -free state employees under the slogan "Donbass our". After the “Russian Spring”, the Russian summer will come, and the “Russian summer” is when everyone went on vacation, and nothing happens, and the repetitions of old programs are shown on TV.

It is only on the map that the regions seem like each other - this is a blink of Crimea, but the squeal of the Donbass. In fact, comparing these regions, of course, cannot be compared. For 23 years, a half-isolated, poor, depressed Crimea by Ukrainian standards has always been something like our North Caucasus with the difference that the slogan “enough to feed Crimea” in Ukraine, because no one fed it all these years. And there was no money, and the resort-oriented locals somehow coped themselves. In other words, it is still unknown whether it is a loss for Ukraine or not, but let them understand this themselves, their business, in the end. Another thing is more interesting for us: Russia has increased on Crimea, got a region in which, in general, there is nothing to select from, but for the development of which you can allocate some billions on the beloved Russian elite economic principle “surrender to yourself”-someone ( it is known to whom ) will entrust the bridge, someone -a resort cluster, someone will win the tender for the high-speed railway from Yalta to Simferopol, And someone will achieve the right to dig a metro in Sevastopol. And this is only an economy, but there is still an inexhaustible source of a patriotic upsurge, “our Crimea” and so on. No matter what side you look at - not the acquisition, but just a miracle.

Whether it will turn out with Donbass - a question. The most important, almost state-forming region, the capital of the largest national financial and industrial groups, a region with its own elites, interests, conflicts, money and much more-in such a region, what worked in a small poor Simferopol will not work. Here, either take Rinat Akhmetov in the cooperative "Lake", or a fight. The slogan "Donbass is our" in such a situation will not sound at all as cheerful as the Crimean original. To bargain with the West or with Kiev for Crimea, to imitate the return of President Yanukovych to the “loyal regions”, to crack the Ukrainian nerves as they approach the May elections - this is as much as you like, but to repeat the Crimean script in the East Ukrainian regions, no, it is more expensive.

It seems that Putin perfectly understands this - it will sound strange, but it is such a noisy “Russian spring” and should be considered proof that nothing will happen. For fifteen years of life with Putin, one could also get used to his sentimental (either in spies did not play a lot in his youth, or the ethics of St. Petersburg of the nineties laid out a mark) craving for senseless conspiracy - Putin never makes it clear what decision he would make tomorrow. Just try to remember what step of Putin you knew in advance.

If now everything indicates that Russia will annex Donbass - this is a completely convincing sign that no, will not join.