Big game Lady Yu

Ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is one of 23 candidates registered by Ukrainian CEC to participate in early presidential elections on May 25. However, many experts believe, real power in the country is already in its hands. And not only because the key figures of the Maidan are completely her associates

Supporters Tymoshenko keep her portraits during the congress of the Fatherland Party in Kyiv on March 29, 2014/ Photo: Grigory Vasilenko (RIA-News)

In today's Ukraine, Yulia Tymoshenko is only the third most popular politician. According to polls conducted by KMIS, SOCIS, and the center of Razumkov, Tymoshenko in the first round of elections can only count on 8-9% of votes. Her main opponent, businessman Petro Poroshenko, overtakes her three times: his rating exceeds 25%.

“In Ukraine, Julia is not loved by populism and a tendency to manual management of the economy,” said Sergey Vysotsky, political observer of the LIGA.NET portal. In addition, he notes, people are already taught by the negative experience of her premiere.

“Tymoshenko was already the prime minister and showed how it works. There will be no real reforms in the case of her presidency or premiere. Its goal is to coordinate the interests of various oligarchs, the separation of the spheres of their influence and balancing the economy between the EU and Russia, ”explains the president of the Ukrainian analytical center Alexander Okhrimenko. And the Maidan understands this. The ex-prime minister was booming with the people during the first meeting.

Crisis managers

In fact, Tymoshenko is now not a “political corpse”, but a real “gray cardinal” for Ukraine. “The country is really controlled by Yulia Tymoshenko. Not promptly, but in general. It is she who belongs to the idea of ​​the inclusion of representatives of civil society into the government in order to please the Maidan. It was she who negotiated the appointment of Governors (oligarchs - The New Times) Igor Kolomoisky (Dnepropetrovsk region) and Sergey Taruta (Donetsk), ”said Ukrainian journalist Mustafa Nayem.

These decisions can be called effective: new governors are still doing with separatist sentiments in the Donbass. Moreover, Kolomoisky coped with his task instantly, in a matter of days. Tarut had harder, especially in the last weekend, but in the end, not a meringue of help, however, special forces of the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, restored control over the situation.

Now the main question is whether the new governors will be the cause of the relapses of popular discontent in the near future. In Kyiv, experts are still optimistic. So, Sergey Vysotsky is convinced that "consolidation is needed in the face of an external threat, and the majority seems to understand this."

The East of Ukraine, in his opinion, will be under the control of the oligarchs until the Eastern Ukrainians themselves decide through folk performances, strikes and rallies to challenge this. “Stabilization of the regions in these conditions is a permissible price for“ oligarchic ”purposes,” the expert explains.

The head of the Center for Applied Political Studies of Pentu, Vladimir Fesenko, also holds the same opinion. “These are forced, tactical decisions, and, most likely, temporary,” the analyst thinks. - The emotions of the Maidan have now faded into the background. The main thing is to maintain the country's unity. In Dnepropetrovsk, the situation is relatively stable, in Donetsk it is more difficult, although better than in Lugansk. For Donetsk, the key figure is Akhmetov. Rumor has it that Taruta is a figure agreed with him, moreover, a close to Yatsenyuk, ”says the analyst.

“People in the eastern regions respect power. All oligarchs are local - famous, authoritative and respected people. They are believed, ”Fesenko confirms the journalist from Donetsk Denis Tkachenko.

For the unity of Ukraine, all participants in the Forbes list in Ukraine already spoke out. The new Kyiv government, unlike Yanukovych, is recognized even by the richest Ukrainian Rinat Akhmetov, who was still considered one of the main sponsors of the political regime of Viktor Yanukovych. Igor Balut will help the new governor of the Kharkov region Igor Baluta, the richest businessman of the city Alexander Yaroslavsky. The Odessa Regional State Administration was headed by the founder of the Odessa company Stalkanat Vladimir Nemirovsky.

Putin will help

Yulia Tymoshenko has already managed to make a number of rather sharp statements to Russia. According to her, she did not have the right to annexation of the Crimea of ​​the Russian Federation, and the Russian fleet will need to be thrown out of Sevastopol, since it is a "source of instability and threat to the security of Ukraine." But in fact, Tymoshenko, if anyone can count on the world arena, then only on Putin. The West clearly relied on Petro Poroshenko.

The sources of The New Times in the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry confirmed the German press reports that Tymoshenko did not even ask for the Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel. The reason is in her low rating. After Tymoshenko did not listen to anyone, in the German Bundestag she was subjected to stiff public “flogging”.

Vysotsky believes that Tymoshenko would be the most convenient option for the Russian president. “Putin does not perceive anyone except her, among the current Ukrainian political elite. And there will not be no one except her except her, ”the expert believes.

By the way, Putin already said that if the ex-prime minister wants to come to Russia, then let him come. “There were different situations related to the implementation of joint activities in the management of the economies of countries. And there were disputes, and there were agreements, but it was generally constructive work, ”the Russian president explained at a press conference in Novo-Ogravo on March 4, 2014.

Another country

The party "Fatherland", which is Tymoshenko, has already occupied about 80% of all posts in the new Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. Deputy Tymoshenko - Arseniy Yatsenyuk - headed the government, and the “right hand” of Lady Yu - Alexander Turchinov is simultaneously the speaker of the parliament and the acting president. In Ukraine, they are seriously discussing the return of Tymoshenko’s associates to his homeland: her husband Alexander has already returned to the country, the ex-prime minister and the close friend of the “gray cardinal” Pavel Lazarenko hoped for returning. After the victory of the Maidan, about 20 prisoners were released, who were considered "political prisoners."

“In fact, Yulia Tymoshenko is now the full leader of the country, although it does not formally occupy any post,” says the president of the Ukrainian analytical center Alexander Okhrimenko. And adds: “At the moment, Tymoshenko is betting the United States and the EU. Therefore, Ukraine actually does not want to make contact with Russia. Most likely, the United States and the EU blessed the ex-prime minister for the presidency. ”

“Julia has already returned to politics. She already very actively affects her because of the curtains, ”admits Vladimir Fesenko. “But the problem is that this is another policy and to a large extent another country, and Julia meets great resistance.”

In case of winning the election, Tymoshenko promises Ukrainians “return the Crimea”, “dealing with the oligarchs”, including those who are in power, to stabilize the situation in the economy. Obviously, her campaign will largely be aimed at discrediting Poroshenko, who in the eyes of Tymoshenko’s voters will turn into an “oligarch eager for power”. But these theses are not enough for the voter.

“It is very important for Tymoshenko to transfer the elections to autumn or winter. It takes time to swing a PR machine. The electorate partially forgot it, and therefore Tymoshenko needs a new propaganda blow, ”says Alexander Okhrimenko.

The transfer is refused

According to the sources of The New Times in the "Fatherland", Tymoshenko had already asked the associates in the power to transfer the presidential elections for December - by this moment she could mobilize her electorate - but she was refused. They say that Turchinov even nicked his boss and said that under the current conditions it was impossible to transfer the elections in no case.

Indirect evidence of the fact that no one believes in the election in the election, may also serve that Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Secretary of National Security and Defense Council Andrei Parubiy have already left the Fatherland party - they say, only before the presidential election. Political scientist Alexei Bluminov regards the incident unambiguously: the increasingly less noticeable associates of Lady Yu made a bet on Poroshenko.

By chance or not, but the deputy from the Party of Regions Yevgeny Muraev registered a bill in the Verkhovna Rada on the postponement of the presidential election from May 25 to early December. But in the Rada they did not even consider him.

Again in the game

Nevertheless, experts advise not to discount Lady Yu. “Julia’s return to big politics is quite possible,” said Sergey Vysotsky. And continues:

“The situation has gone beyond the normal process. Ukraine lives at war with Russia. At least psychologically. And in critical situations, Julia usually demonstrates brilliant political instincts - war is just its element. If she can saddle a military agenda, bring peace to the country, play as an exponent of the will of Ukrainians in the external arena - this can give her every chance. ”

But Vladimir Fesenko believes that Tymoshenko will be very difficult to win in May because of a “high loan of distrust” - 60% of the country's population will not vote for it in any case. The expert reads Tymoshenko Premier chair, not presidential.

Perhaps the Kremlin also plays the transfer of Ukrainian elections to a later date. He already has experience concluding profitable contracts with Tymoshenko.

Another important point. Close to Tymoshenko, acting The Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov arrested the governor and mayor of Kharkov Mikhail Dobkin and Gennady Kernes in March. Yuri Sapronov, a former deputy governor of the Kharkov region for economic issues (resigned on February 21, 2014) says that the rating of the first in the city is 72%, 81%in the region. “If tomorrow in Kharkov the mayor’s early elections take place, Kernes will win any candidate with a margin of 20%,” the politician adds. Sapronov fears that these arrests can give a pro -Russian protest in Kharkov a new impulse. And this, again, will give another reason for transferring the date of presidential elections.

In a word, the couple Julia Tymoshenko-Vladimir Putin is still in a large Ukrainian game. Whether they will beat Petro Poroshenko and the Maidan is still unclear.