After Donetsk

An interesting question for the historian: when did the Kremlin decide to attach Crimea to the Russian Federation? Until the Crimean referendum, most observers believed that the Kremlin expands the Russian presence in the Crimea, not going to destroy the integrity of Ukraine. It was believed that V. Putin simply forms a “strong negotiation position” with the West. Or - avenge for Ukrainian society for Euromaidan, creating difficult problems for temporary authorities in Kyiv. Or, if you look with the sympathy for Putin with which European experts like Alexander RAR, for example, the purpose of action in the Crimea is to include the theme of “federalization of Ukraine” on the agenda (in order to expand the rights of the so -called left -bank Ukraine). And so on. In other words, actions in Crimea were considered in the logic of strengthening the political threat. But not annexation. Obviously, even the political circles of Washington, Berlin, Brussels were sure that we were talking about aggressive bargaining. But no more. But it turned out - not so. And now the “Crimean scenario” is also unfolding for several territories in the southeast. And the voices of experts who argue, why Putin will not capture Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov are heard .

And at the same time, it is quite obvious that the reaction of Russian society to the “capture of Crimea” as its semantic nucleus does not contain the Crimea itself as such and not even the southeast, but a very wide and deep re-re-re-re-enthusiasm, aimed at the key word “USSR”, to praying the results of 1991. In short, in the minds of the majority of the population of the Russian Federation 1991 simply disappeared, dissolved. This opens up colossal prospects for Putin to create a new state in Eurasia. Not only the population of the Russian Federation, but also the sociologically significant contingents of neighboring states will easily and joyfully support Putin's new course. And it comes down to creating the Eurasian Union not through slow and dull bargaining, but with the help of a quick and extremely aggressive policy. We are waiting for the "power solution to the Eurasian issue." This is the content of Putin's “third term”. We see that both below (from initiatives) and from above (from political managers of the Kremlin) sounded all the topics that were previously taboo: Northern Kazakhstan, Transnistria, Gagauza, etc. On Moscow political sidelines today you can hear: Putin's goal is quickly and breaking any resistance to drive Kazakhstan, Belarus, Moldova, part of Ukraine and, possibly, Kyrgyzstan to the ruble zone with the center of emission in Moscow. After that, the question of political sovereignty of these states will change completely. De facto this will be a new state. If it does not work to drive them entirely, it will be enough to attach to the Russian Federation any territories whose population will vote for entry into the Russian Federation. Moreover, this is not only about the "Russian -speaking" territories. The incentive to join the Russian Federation may also be among ethnically different groups. Do we not know how attractive Russian citizenship for millions of Kyrgyz, Moldavians and even Armenians. It is completely non -not obvious, for example: what position will the current Armenian establishment and the current Armenian society take on the entry into the New USSR along with Karabakh? On the one hand, this fantastic idea of ​​a voluntary rejection of sovereignty seems ridiculous and impossible. And on the other hand: if the Kremlin guarantees the widest and most profitable autonomy to the entering, are not the benefits of the benefits from the entry with Karabakh in a new state education?

Putin's goal is quickly and breaking any resistance - to drive Kazakhstan, Belarus, Moldova, part of Ukraine and, possibly, Kyrgyzstan to the ruble zone with the center of emission in Moscow.

Putin calculates - and not without reason - to sway strongly the societies of a number of states of the former USSR. Russia is attractive now. There is a high level of life compared to neighbors. And - we note - many neighbors in the Russian Federation seems much more liberal than their own regimes.

In other words, Crimea for the Kremlin is not important in itself. This is just a gesture of unpacking the colossal historical process: Putin in a very harsh form offers neighboring nations to be self -predicted regarding the project of reconstruction of the USSR. Of course, this will be the "new USSR." In the new composition. What it will turn out. He is going to do this using all the tools demonstrated already in Ukraine: military pressure, buying a local oligarchy and military leadership, the threat of creating a “controlled chaos”, the use of pro -Russian activists within countries, the export of “revolution” with the help of special Russian “public” organizations, massaged propaganda attacks using the entire space of Eurasia. Those who, like Tatyana Stanaya, write that - unlike Crimea - the Kremlin will not attach Donetsk and Lugansk are mistaken. Allegedly because it will finally deepen the conflict with the West. Nothing of the kind! The Kremlin is going to attach not only Donetsk and Lugansk - but in general everything that can be attached. Putin wants to create a new state in Eurasia. He will have a new constitution. Since March 16, 2014, for all the peoples living on this side of the “Roman shaft” - that is, on this side of the border with NATO, there is no longer an old geographical map. A universal tender for joining is open. And individual Rusyns - yes, you will have to self -determine. Do they want to go to Hungary? Under the Kremlin? Or stay in an unknown Ukrainian state so far? I think that the Belarusian and Kazakhstan political communities need to thoroughly think about their prospects.

In the new version of the Constitution in Preambul - at the suggestion of Milonov and Mizulina, of course, the word “God” will be.

It may seem like a too phantasmagoric picture. Perhaps the old "partners" of V. Putin in various influential countries of the world seems impossible for the Kremlin - ignoring any international treaties and possible sanctions, not a timid before isolation (and self -isolation) - led such a game. This new Kremlin strategy seems dangerous, destabilizing and unrealistic. Nevertheless, the contours of this unexpected turn of 2014 are already visible quite clearly. They are visible in how the Russian Foreign Ministry behaves, and what role the new “power lobby” begins to play in the Kremlin, which brilliantly coped with the “capture of Crimea”, and in how propaganda works. Yes, and after Crimea, how much Russian society is ready to go far along the path of mobilization for this "new USSR" and the new constitution. We see how quickly the rhetoric of readiness for victims is formed (“it is better to live in poverty, but with a great dream”), and the rhetoric of the revenge triumph (which is so inspired by young writers of Prilepin, Olshansky and Prosvirnin), and military excitement around the “national traitors”. I myself do not really understand why we need this "new USSR" in the format of Eurasia. I hear the voices of good acquaintances who believe that the Russian Civil Nation will finally form this “war for the USSR” ... In my opinion, they are mistaken. In my opinion, the military-political group of the “third term”, which will start all this, will bring the current “nation of the Russian Federation” to the inevitable and eagerly expected sacrifice, will create a powerful but distorted optics of perception of the world in the brains, and then ... it is difficult to say what exactly will be. Risky game! Many people around us convince me: Rome is so weakened that “we” - Russians - can easily establish new orders on this side of the “Roman shaft” and re -establish a new union of Eurasia tribes. It is impossible to convince such people. After all, this is a political myth of “us” and “Rome”. Here, for example, the state of Dakov, as we wrote yesterday at Barbarische Beobachter , is in a state of default, it did not take place. It has been hanging between Rome and us for 25 years. Stop to suffer, dear ducks! Enter our new Gallic Union. After all, the Romans are greedy, insidious and merciless. And here you will feast, sing, and with us ritually walk several times a year and spit on the “Roman shaft”. And you are tribes of the Carpathian mountains, and you are hardworking steppe peoples. And even you are the peaceful elders of the Mount Athos ... And remember: the Kremlin has already confirmed that he would pay half the cost of air tickets for the flight of Moscow -Crimea.

There will be other bonuses. And in Rome there are no bonuses - there are despondency, debauchery and hard work for you like.

But if without jokes, then, of course, the new Putin constitution will be a rather complicated test for us - the elderly. After all, it is one thing to disagree with a specific political decision. For example, with annexation of a separate Crimea taken. Yes, I'm against it. But I'm not alone. Against and the world famous director Sokurov. And the most translated Russian writer Polevin did not approve. And many more worthy people.

But with the constitution it will be more difficult. It is ridiculous not to vote for the constitution of the state in which you live. Especially if 99.9% of citizens voted enthusiastically for her. Moreover, in the new version of the Constitution in Preambul - at the suggestion of Milonov and Mizulina, of course, the word “God” will be. Like this, many other peoples. “We are the people of Eurasia - before God and conscience ...”, etc. In the face of God, it is ridiculous not to vote with the whole people. By the time this constitutional reform is completed (and it will be in two years), Crimea and Donetsk - as today's events - will be historically as far as the entry of Tuva into the USSR is perceived today.

Looking through the thick glass of senile glasses, I can only say: on a good way, barbarians!