Andrey Kostin does not consider it necessary to seriously consider the stress scenario / Andrey Rudakov / Bloomberg

However, even 160 billion rubles of net profit seem to be an overly optimistic plan to analysts interviewed by Vedomosti. Denis Poryvai from Raiffeisenbank believes it is extremely ambitious to expect a 60% increase in profit with an increase in the loan portfolio of less than 40%. VTB hopes to double its profit from retail and medium-sized businesses, where high profitability is provided by commission income, but at the same time expects the cost of risk to increase by only 18%. According to the analyst, this is very bold, since the quality of the retail portfolio is currently deteriorating, which requires the creation of large reserves. The state bank was able to meet last year's profit forecast only due to one-time income. According to calculations by Gazprombank analysts, a third of its profit for the fourth quarter of 2013 came from the revaluation of stakes in Tele2 and the leasing company Avia Capital.

According to VTB management, the retail business will develop at an accelerated pace in the next three years, due to which the group's profit from working with individuals will double, and the total net profit will grow by 60%. VTB President and Chairman of the Management Board Andrey Kostin believes this task is feasible.

In addition to retail, VTB is counting on cost optimization. The payroll fund should be reduced by 15% over three years (for comparison: in 2013 alone, personnel and administrative expenses grew by more than 16%), the number of VTB 24 and Bank of Moscow branches is being optimized, and a special division will be created to work with medium-sized borrowers. So far, according to VTB Deputy Chairperson Yulia Chupina, the group often loses to competitors in this segment: working with small borrowers requires greater flexibility. For example, such entrepreneurs are very sensitive to the time it takes to review a loan application. Now, Chupina says, Bank of Moscow and VTB will have managers whose activities will be focused specifically on medium-sized businesses.

It has not yet been determined how many retail branches VTB 24 and Bank of Moscow will ultimately have left - plans on this matter will be developed for each year, Chupina emphasized. In 2014, several dozen branches may be cut.

In planning net profit for three years ahead, the group relied on three scenarios - baseline (RUB 160 billion), optimistic (RUB 180 billion) and stressful, says VTB CFO Herbert Moos. The last option was left without figures - the group is counting on the baseline.

Indeed, according to Central Bank data published yesterday, both the qualitative and quantitative indicators of the retail loan portfolio of Russian banks worsened in March (see article on page 11).

Poryvay is not inclined to expect sharp jumps in the current conditions of slowing economic growth and saturation of the consumer lending market. Ilya Filatov, Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of Uralsib, does not quite agree with this opinion: "Retail still remains a priority segment for many banks, and for VTB 24 this is a core business, it has strong positions in all retail products, so focusing on retail seems logical."

Several years ago, VTB had already staked on developing the retail business. But in the subsequently adopted strategy "Road to 15", the group focused on another goal - increasing capitalization. In particular, the group hoped for the share price to grow to 0.15 rubles, but to no avail. By setting such a bar, the group did not take into account the current situation, which led to a decrease in the value of Russian assets, Kostin explained. Yesterday, VTB quotes on the Moscow Exchange looked better than the market. While Russian indices grew by 1.3-1.4%, VTB's capitalization rose by almost 2%.

VTB puts its money on retail