Translated material
"There will be no classic invasion"
Why are we on the threshold of a collision of two civilizations
The actions of Russia in the eastern regions of Ukraine are based on the technology of a controlled conflict. On the one hand, Moscow consolidates a military presence on the border with Ukraine, providing itself with strong international negotiation positions, no matter how long negotiations are being held. On the other hand, there is a purposeful buildup of the situation in a neighboring country: the forces of special operations, saboteurs and locals capture administrative buildings and important objects in Ukrainian eastern and southeastern regions. After that, as a rule, an appeal to the authorities of the Russian Federation for power support should be followed with subsequent entry of troops - to set a winning point.
At the same time, the number of separatists who are ready to resort to radical actions is calculated by hundreds, not thousands. Basically, these are representatives of the special services of the Russian Federation and radical citizens - ours and strangers. They have no mass support of Ukrainian citizens.
We need to divide people who are unhappy in the East (many of them are influenced by phobias and stereotypes from the past), from saboteurs and terrorists. With the first, you need to patiently work, solve their issues, only the language of ultimatum and hard actions work with the second in the world. In conflictology, all this has long been calculated. In a different way-nothing.
Now a powerful Russian group of up to 45 thousand people is concentrated near the Ukrainian borders: airborne troops, mechanized troops, the Presidential Guard of the Russian Federation (the most warhead units), artillery, including reactive, bomber, assault, air defense, warships. All these are offensive troops. Of course, intelligence also works. And it works very clearly. Connected to the work of the GRU and FSB forces.
In the event of an invasion, Russian troops will probably act on a wide front, since it makes no sense to go in one place in order to get a crushing rebuff. Actions are possible from several directions - Russian troops are now concentrated on them. But for this, I repeat, they need a swinged, brought to a certain degree the situation. But she is not yet. Therefore, all the forces of Moscow are now aimed precisely for internal destabilization in Ukraine.
At the same time, you need to understand: most likely, there will be no classical invasion of Ukraine from Russia. The latent phase of the intervention will be as long as possible - until they will prepare or “fertilize” the ground for the dismemberment of Ukraine. The troops in this scenario are intended for subsequent blitz-scrigory actions in order to forever fix the status quo winning for Russia.
Many are now asking the question: will NATO intervene? I have no idea that someone defended our land for us. We ourselves must protect our families and defend our civilizational choice - in favor of European democratic values. And in the West, it seems, they begin to understand: this conflict is a clash of not Russia and Ukraine, not the Maidan with the Kremlin and Putin. This is precisely the clash of two civilizations.