Translated material
On the technique and practice of sabotage war
What's happening
Donetsk, where the main events unfolded before the weekend on April 12-13, did not become a new Sevastopol. In the Donbass capital, the pro -Russian forces faced the passivity of the inhabitants: unlike Crimeans, they did not go out to defend the idea of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” on the square in front of the seized by the regional administration. On the contrary, several small gatherings of supporters of the preservation of Donbass as part of Ukraine took place on the weekend in the city.
Under these conditions, pro -Russian sabotage groups transferred the tip of the blow to the district centers of Donbass, where the situation was radically worsened over the weekend. Armed formations are hosted by almost all of the Donetsk region. They arrive in small cities (Slavyansk, Khartsyzsk, Kramatorsk, Enakievo, Gorlovka, Mariupol, Makeevka, Artemovsk) from the outside and without resistance occupy the police department and the building of the city administration. Changing the flags and taking possession of weapons, if there is, armed groups give way to motley local activists and are trying to isolate the city from the outside world - to expose checkpoints on the roads. The Donetsk police in the mass order passes to the side of the pro -Russian forces.
The operation to displace armed groups from Slavyansk choked. Only one road checkpoint managed to eliminate. The Ukrainian security forces refused to go to the city without covering armored vehicles, and the military, according to the LIGABESTYSINFORMENTS, did not go, citing the lack of a decision on the introduction of a state of emergency in the region. In turn, the Ukrainian National Security Council on Sunday refused to introduce an emergency in the region, which was insisted by the Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov and the acting Head of the Presidential Administration Sergey Pashinsky. This would entail a stop of the presidential election campaign and would give legal grounds to doubt its legitimacy. As a result of the administration of Turchinov -Yatsenyuk, as in February, Yanukovych has to officially call the response of the “anti -terrorist operation”.
This is in the national character: to harness for a long time, but already swaying ...
In Slavyansk, an officer of state security of Ukraine died and, according to various information, another 1-3 people, about a dozen wounded.
Very restless in Kharkov. Do not know how to use turnstiles at the entrance to the subway, militants (not local) defeated one of the metro stations and beat people with Ukrainian symbols throughout the city. Probably, after the capture of the "command posts" in the Donetsk region, armed formations will be transferred to the Kharkov region.
Odessa and Nikolaev are extremely vulnerable, but Dnepropetrovsk, where the appointment of Igor Kolomoisky by the governor turned out to be a very successful step, is ready for defense better than other regional centers of the southeast. By the way, to the issue of associations with the Second World War: the deputy head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional administration, Vocabulary is important: the Dnepropetrovsk residents, to the chagrin of Russian propagandists, are not considered to be “Nazi invaders”, but a side defending against them.
© Ilya Talev/Kommersant Kramatorsk, 04/12/2014Who are these people
Even during the operation to capture Crimea, when the riots in the southeastern cities of Ukraine were just beginning, someone characterized the situation as follows: "Local fuel, Russian matches." This is a completely accurate description. In all cities of Ukraine, where riots arose, visitors act as armed invaders and provocateurs. They are supported by the local public, which remains when capturing buildings on the second roles, and then entering the first (with statements on federalization of Ukraine, the formation of the People’s Republic, etc.). In addition to the police, some local deputies from the Yanukovych Party of Regions quickly go to the side of the separatists. So it was in Khartsyzsk.
Among the armed invaders there are clearly Russians, but it is unlikely that the groups touring in the southeast of Ukraine are completely composed of them. Most likely, these groups have Russians, and former Berkutians from different regions, and security officials, and simply sympathizing with the Kremlin who hate Kyiv and “Bandera” strong guys who have passed Kosovo or other “hot spots”.
"Local fuel, Russian matches."
Now the Kremlin propaganda, as in the capture of Crimea, rests on the fact that unidentified “green men” are not parts of the regular Russian army or special services. Yes, both the military groups, who seized administrative buildings in the Donetsk region on April 12-13, and the groups of militants operating in Kharkov were 100%of Russians. But: 1) Russians are clearly present in these groups; 2) the activities of groups of both types are clearly coordinated, directed from a single center. And he is not in Ukraine.
Thus, it is most correct to qualify what is happening as a sabotage war. The operation led by the Russian special services is carried out on the destabilization of the situation in the territory of another country. These sabotage shares are based on tuned pro -Russian local residents. At the same time, it is obvious that in the Donetsk region their share is less than in the Crimea, and in Donetsk - less than in the district centers of the Donetsk region. But this does not apply to the police of the eastern regions and the formations of the Ukrainian army gained in these places.
© Ilya Talev/Kommersant Kramatorsk, 04/12/2014Kyiv plans
By the time the Crimea was eliminated, the Kyiv authorities were just formed and, in fact, could not take any actions to protect the territory of the country. Now the situation is better, but, of course, not dramatically: it is impossible to form an efficient power almost from scratch for a month and a half, and even in the conditions of the actual split in the country and hostile intervention. Nevertheless, Kyiv is trying to resist. An operation with the participation of army units against separatists is being prepared.
Finally disappointed in the personnel police, Avakov announced the beginning of the formation of regional special forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs from among the patriots of Ukraine. Military analysts, of course, talked about the need to form such detachments a month ago. But time was lost - from the beginning of the annexation of Crimea in Kyiv, only one of the National Guard battalion was formed, and he was dissolved until April 23 to settle the Guards of cases on the “citizen”.
It is most correct to qualify what is happening as a sabotage war.
The second line of reflection of aggression is peaceful. Kyiv seeks to knock the soil from under the feet of the separatists. On Sunday, acting President Alexander Turchinov ordered to prepare bills on the reform of local self-government and organize power in the regions within 3 months. The main proposals for this reform were prepared by Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Groysman, ex-mayor of Vinnitsa. Its holding does not promise federalization desired by Russia. But decentralization will be powerful enough. The main thing that can interfere with this is difficulties with filling the budget of Ukraine, against which the authorities will be difficult to decide on the transfer of profitable sources to the regions.
Checkmate
Kyiv and all supporters of separate, independent, holistic and independent Ukraine are in an extremely difficult situation. Until now, Kyiv managed to refrain from response to aggression to aggression. Partly thanks to wisdom, partly due to weakness. Contrary to the statements of Russian propagandists, neither the “Bandera” nor the “Right Sector” came to the Crimea, nor to the regions covered by anti -Ukrainian speeches. But Ukrainians can no longer watch how one region is cut off from the country. This is in the national character: to harness for a long time, but by swinging ... So, the answer will certainly be.
By combining the efforts of the special services, the capable parts of the police, the army and volunteers, Ukraine is quite able to cope with the sabotage groups of "unknown origin." But the Russian representative Vitaly Churkin, who has been monking tonight at the UN Security Council, has already threatened with all countries a breakdown of 4-sided negotiations. It is easy to assume that the response to the active actions against the "green men" will be the full-scale entry of the Russian army into the southeastern regions. With the motivation for Russian -speaking protection. But she has no strength to withstand the contingent concentrated on the border with Ukraine.
© Ilya Talev/Kommersant Slavyansk, 04/12/2014Russian plans
To reliably say what they are is impossible so far. Diversion shares held to this moment in the southeastern regions of Ukraine can be a prologue to: 1) referendum and subsequent accession of these regions to Russia on the model of Crimea; 2) their emancipation from Ukraine and further existence, as Russia's unrecognized republics patronized by Russia, like Abkhazia; 3) in the event of the consent of Kyiv to real federalization - the preservation of these regions in Ukraine, but with significant independence.
All three options are possible, each has pros and cons for the Kremlin, and say which one is made on which is not yet. The first option promises Russia to serious growth in budget load and gigantic costs for the restructuring of Donetsk coal production and metallurgy. In addition, it is obvious that Ukraine without Donetsk, according to its political preferences, will become much closer to Europe than with it. If the Kremlin is going to tear Donetsk and Kharkov from Ukraine, then you must be prepared for the fact that NATO will be in Kyiv. If only after Donetsk, Kharkov, Odessa and Nikolaev, a trip to Kyiv is not planned.
What's next
Unfortunately, the situation gets out of control. Kyiv is in clear confusion: on the one hand, you can’t calmly watch how the enemy eats one city after another. On the other hand, the use of force against separatists will lead to open introduction of Russian troops into Ukraine.
I am afraid that at the current stage of the armed conflict can no longer be avoided. If the Kyiv authorities have enough endurance from the “anti-terrorist operation”, Ukraine will lose the whole southeast. Even if Kyiv does not direct the “official military” sabotage groups, they will begin to resist the “partisan detachments” - a group of patriotic residents of Ukraine. In addition, delay is quite capable of causing a new Maidan and coming to power in Kyiv of more aggressive politicians or military.
Two options remain: either Russia prudently stops, or Russia and Ukraine are sliding in a full -scale war. For the first version of hopes, there are very few. The second will lead to numerous victims, the seizure of a good half of the Ukrainian territory and the complete international isolation of Russia. With all the ensuing.