Batkina maneuvers

Alexander Lukashenko seems to be afraid of Russian invasion

The President of Belarus is hastily inspecting his own army - as if just in case

Alexander Lukashenko during a meeting of the presidents of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan at a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in the Novo-Ogarsky residence March 5, 2014/ Photo: Alexey Druzhinin, RIA-News

Lukashenko demanded from his military to force the program of modernization of the country's Belarusian Air Force. During a visit to 558 Aviation Repair Plant OJSC in Baranavichy, the Belarusian president said that “it is necessary to modernize the air forces” and in general “keep the Air Force in good condition” so that the sad experience of our Ukrainian brothers would not be repeated. When it was necessary to fight, it turned out that there was no army ... "

Journalists in Minsk say: Old Man no longer wants the airspace of Belarus to patrol only the Russian military, especially due to the situation around Ukraine.

Double game

President Lukashenko from the very beginning of the crisis in Ukraine consistently supports the Kyiv authorities. Yes, he called Crimea “de facto Russian,” but at the same time he unequivocally reproached the official Kyiv in unwillingness to fight for the peninsula belonging to them. Moreover, Lukashenko met with temporary Ukrainian President Alexander Turchinov. What was discussed on her is not known for certain, but the dad looked very satisfied.

There are rumors in Minsk that Lukashenko discussed not only economic issues, as stated at the official level, but also offered Turchinov the service of the intermediary between Moscow and Kiev.

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"Old Man does not want the airspace of Belarus to patrol only the Russian military, especially in view of the situation around Ukraine"

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To date, Lukashenko had already managed to call the “nonsense” the idea of ​​the federalization of Ukraine, b) to recognize the “absolute legitimacy” of the authorities formed in Kyiv B) scold the West for “throwing” Ukraine. He managed to add (just in case, apparently) that Belarus is ready to accept refugees from a neighboring state.

“In this regard, from my point of view, everything is logical. According to their constitution, if there is no president, then his duties are performed by the head of the Verkhovna Rada, ”Lukashenko said in an interview with NTV. - So it happened. I believe that they have no president in their country. According to the Constitution, the president must be. By virtue of the article of the Presidential Constitution, Turchinov should replace. So, for me, he is absolutely legitimate and the Verkhovna Rada is absolutely legitimate. ”

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To date, Lukashenko had already managed to call the idea of ​​federalization of Ukraine, b) to recognize the “absolute legitimacy” of the authorities formed in Kyiv B) to scold the West for the fact that he “threw” Ukraine

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Touching upon a personal meeting with Turchinov, Lukashenko noticed that he could not dissuade him “on many things”, but admitted that “some moments were interesting.” Turchinov, Lukashenko noted, correctly perceives the situation, "which is developing."

And in the EU - better

The Old Man advised Kyiv not to accept the Moscow idea of ​​federalization of Ukraine, and noticed that he was categorically against such a decision.

“If you want to preserve Ukraine with a single state, and I want Ukraine to be a holistic monolithic single state, I really want this, then it is necessary to carry out federalization. This is tomorrow's split in Ukraine completely, it will destroy the state, ”he explained. And he added that "who needs to play on this - they will play." “Pushing Ukraine to federalization now is very dangerous. It is dangerous to everyone: both Belarus with Russia and the West, ”he concluded.

At the same time, in another interview, the Old Man noticed that Western politicians “threw” Ukraine. “What help is there? This is still conversation. The country that played the main violin there, the main role, the USA, which prints these dollars, first gave dry rations for the army, and now they promised one billion dollars ... ” - he concluded.

Many experts believe that Lukashenko is extremely alarmed by the annexation of Crimea and is afraid that sooner or later a similar situation may develop in Belarus. In 2009, the Novak sociological laboratory conducted surveys in the republic on desire and unwillingness to join Russia. Then only 14% of the citizens of Belarus wanted to mergers with Moscow. In 2010, an independent Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Studies calculated that 48.6% of Belarusians spoke out against the unification of Belarus with Russia. 36.4% of citizens of the country is completely advocated for its entry into the EU. Only 29%are ready to vote for the joining of Russia at a hypothetical referendum. Sociologists say that a year after a year of those who wish to reunite with Russia in the republic are less and less.

Viktor Dyatlikovich radio columnist, Viktor Dyatlikovich, at all seriously suggested that Lukashenko conduct a referendum in the country on the issue of joining Belarus to Russia in order to recall once and for all in the event of the development of events in the “Crimean” script.

“48.6% of Belarusians spoke out against the unification of Belarus with Russia. 36.4% of citizens of the country is completely advocated for its entry into the EU. Only 29%are ready to vote for the joining of Russia at a hypothetical referendum. "

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Maidan to help?

However, not everyone believes in Lukashenko's self -will. For example, the Belarusian political scientist Roman Yakovlevsky says that the last statements of the Belarusian president were extremely contradictory. “On the one hand, he recognizes Turchinov, on the other, indicates that he came to power illegally. There was also frank untruth, the expert believes. - He said that he has a list of two thousand refugees from Ukraine, although the Embassy of Ukraine does not confirm this. At the same time, a sharp anti -NATO rhetoric sounded: "We will not allow NATO to appear in Ukraine!"

Yakovlevsky is sure that without the blessing of Putin Lukashenko would not dare to meet with Turchinov and would not give an interview to the television channel, which was controlled by the Kremlin. “One of the reasons why he was allowed to speak out in this vein is to finally confuse Kyiv and the West in understanding what is really happening in the post -Soviet elites,” the expert said.

According to political scientist Valery Karbalevich, "if Russia tries to demonstrate a threat against Belarus following the example of Ukraine, the Belarusian state system is unlikely to resist."

On the other hand, the expert adds that Ukrainian events could play on the growth of Lukashenko’s rating. “The Belarusian society is largely zombified by Russian television channels and interprets the events around Ukraine in the spirit of a Russian view of the problem,” Valery Karabalevich believes. In addition, the expert is convinced, the Belarusians are now so intimidated by the very idea of ​​the Maidan that a request for strong power, to a hard hand in society, only intensified. ”