Donbass in Abkhazian

Maidan became a point of no return for Ukraine. None of the parties involved in the Ukrainian crisis is interested in preserving Ukraine in the same form. Judging by how the political status was organized in Crimea, it was obvious that Moscow long before the events in Kyiv prepared the script for the rejection of the peninsula from Ukraine with the aim of its subsequent accession to Russia. Vladimir Putin Lukavit, claiming that Russia did not plan any actions in the Crimea, but was ready to build relations in the existing geopolitical realities, but it was forced to act real threats to the Russian -speaking population.

According to the logic of things, this means that Russia will be in the same way to protect the Russian population anywhere in the globe - whether Ukraine, Lithuania, Kazakhstan or any other republic in the post -Soviet space. This primitive logic formed the basis of protests in the southeast of Ukraine. The degree of tension in these areas of Ukraine is much higher - first of all, due to the fact that the conflict of identities here is more pronounced than in the Crimea. This is confirmed by the results of sociological surveys that the same President of Russia refers to.

The Crimean scenario was exceptional, for Russia the possible accession of the south and east of Ukraine carries a lot of risks

The Crimean script was exceptional, for Russia the possible accession of the south and east of Ukraine carries a lot of risks. This is a socio-economic sphere. In the Donbass, a population exceeding Crimean is more than three times, a significant part is pensioners. The statement of the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov (which sounded against the backdrop of a new escalation in Kramatorsk) relative to the zero growth of the country's GDP in 2014 does not seem to be accidental. For the integration of Donbass, Moscow may simply not have enough funds, since the development of Crimea will become one of the most expensive economic projects after the Olympic Games in Sochi.

In addition, there are geopolitical risks. The West believes that the entry of the Russian Federation to the south and east of Ukraine lies behind the "Red Line". Apparently, the situation was ready for the surrender of Crimea and the EU and the EU, but with the southeastern regions, the situation was completely different. On the other hand, in the West they understand the danger of the Balkanization of Ukraine, it is no coincidence that American and European politicians are trying to influence the new leadership in Kyiv through various channels in order to contribute to de -escalation of confrontation. Russia is interested in maintaining the threat of a civil war, since the so -called ensuring the security of the Russian population in Ukraine is its main trump card in its political game.

If, as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, its fragmentation still occurs, Russia will try in every possible way to implement the Abkhazian and South Ossetian scenario in the southeast of the country, since it carries less political and economic risks. Russia seeks to secure a military and political presence in the southeast of Ukraine, and this is possible only if de facto states, the independence of which recognizes Russia. And then Moscow is fully at the level of bilateral agreements - similar to the fact that it signed with Abkhazia after its recognition - will provide a protectorate over new separatist territories.

Islam Terroshev-Caucasian journalist, editor-in-chief of the Internet site Caucasustimes