Without a chance

This year, Eurovision will again turn into a television show with a political background, as it was already in 1992-1993 during the war in Bosnia and Serbia or in 2009, when Georgia was not allowed into Moscow with a provocative song in the wake of the Ossetian conflict “ We Don ' t Wanna Put In " . The reason for this year is a crisis in Ukraine. The charter of the competition, demanding not to interfere with politics, is already cracking due to dilemmas that have arisen. Firstly, the European Broadcasting Union (or just EBU ) should choose whether to recognize the voices of the inhabitants of Crimea as the vote of Russia or as the vote of Ukrainian spectators. The first means de facto recognizing the annexation of Crimea by Russia contrary to the UN resolution. It's okay - the Google M APS service included Crimea in Russia, and nothing. Secondly, voting at Eurovision, the audience will clearly choose not only the hit of discos for the next year, but also between “European values” and Vladimir Putin.

The analysis of bets in bookmaker agencies helps to unequivocally connect the political situation, the world image of Russia and Eurovision-2014. Bookmakers, like exchanges, vividly react to any changes in the environment. Predicting the chances of the victory of a particular country, analysts of bookmakers come from the mood of active European spectators. According to British agencies, to win Russia in Eurovision 2014 from March 19, when the Tolmachev sisters presented the song “Shine” , and Barack Obama expanded sanctions against Russian officials, set only 2%. And this is the total number of bets on the victory of Russia in 23 bookmaker agencies. Guess how much does it put on the victory of Ukraine? Almost 13%.

Colta.ru asked analysts from the Bettingexpert social network . COM (Danish social network for those who like to predict the outcome of the competition. Earned in Russian in August last year. - Ed. ) To submit a schedule for the victory of Russia and Ukraine in a television course and comment on its behavior.

Comment Bettingexpert.com

Judging by the search queries, now our users are most interested in two things: “Russia Victory Eurovision 2014” and “Forecasts of bookmakers for Russia at Eurovision 2014”.

The assessment of events with bookmakers is influenced not only by the mood of the audience. The curves on the graph show how the estimates of bookmakers changed depending on foreign policy events and news. The higher the curve, the less chance of winning.

As you can see, the bookmakers coefficients are stably positive for Ukraine - according to their estimates, the song of Maria Yaremchuk “ Tick - Tock ” , which the Russian -speaking users of YouTube called the worst number of current Eurovision, will definitely enter the top ten winners.

The peak, when the bookmakers sharply doubted at all in any chances of Ukraine, was on the day of the General Crimean referendum. How it ended - we know. The hysteria passed the next day, the chances of Ukraine at Eurovision, according to the same bookmakers, again became positive and even.

The betting curve for the victory of Russia twitches like in a frying pan-judging by its behavior, Russia this time does not have a chance to get into the top 10. If, before the referendum in the Crimea, Russia and Ukraine had approximately the same chances of victory, then a month later the separation increased four times not in favor of Russia. Consider the behavior of the graphs in the binding to the time scale and political news.

March 16

General Crimean referendum. A turning point in evaluating by bookmakers the chances of Russia and Ukraine at Eurovision-2014. Before that, they “led” both countries on more or less equal chances. However, the day before the Crimeans decided the fate of the peninsula, the analysts of the British bookmakers suddenly sharply lower the chances of Ukraine-the uncertainty that Ukraine would generally sing in Copenhagen, not only among bookmakers, but also among fan clubs.

March 17

Krymnash from the hashtag has turned into reality - the separation of Russia from Ukraine on Eurovision began (as never before in the bookmaker history of Eurovision) to increase rapidly. The chances of the Tolmachev twins quickly went down, completely knocking Russia out of dozens of finalists by March 27, while the probability for Ukraine to take a place in the top five increased sharply. Bookmakers associate such perturbations with the behavior of the players - the number of bets on the fact that Ukraine will enter the top five (almost 13%), while only about 2%were registered in the British bookmakers to the competition in the British bookmakers on March 27. According to Elena Kuzemanov, former employee of the Swedish Unibet Swedish bookmaker, bookmakers, like ordinary European players, simply did not want to support Russia rather due to a political image.

March 19

Russia introduced the world to the song “ Shine ” , with which the Tolmachevs will perform at the competition. The bookmakers reacted with an unexpected “f”, the chances of the girls crawled down at least to some victory (on the schedule-the curve went up). Despite the fact that the European fan club of Eurovision voted for a song from Russia 22 voices, and 13 votes for Ukraine. That is, people like the Russian song more than Ukrainian, but bookmakers are biased.

By March 27, when Russia's chances were equal to the chances of the victory of a bearded woman from Austria Conchita VURST, all sites of European bookmakers, including the Swedish Unibet , were blocked by Roskomnadzor at the request of the court. The office stopped working in the Russian market. Money can be returned by writing a bookmaker support service.

To the straight line with President Putin, Russia's chances have grown a little - the world was waiting for good news from the first person of the country. The President of the Russian Federation said that he was very pleased that "everything (the accession of Crimea) was done professionally, quickly and decisively," from the wheels "." On April 19, after the direct line of the president, the betting curve on Russia again fell into a hopeless peak.